396
FXUS64 KEWX 070534
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1234 AM CDT Wed May 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

Key messages:

- Storms to decrease in coverage this evening before another
conditional risk of severe storms and heavy rainfall tomorrow

An upper level low currently centered over New Mexico this afternoon
tries to move eastward over the central plains tonight and
Wednesday. A strong shortwave moves over our area today as a cold
front is located just past the I-35 corridor. Expect this front to
continue pushing eastward taking the threat of showers and storms
with it. The front eventually stalls somewhere south of the area
though where is still uncertain at this time. Wherever this front
ends up will determine our possibility of severe weather tomorrow.
The convective parameters are slightly less impressive than those we
had today keeping the possibility of strong to severe storms in
play. Large hail and damaging winds would be the main threats. As
such SPC has the Coastal Plains in a level 2 of 5 risk and the
Northern Hill Country and I-35 Corridor in a level 1 of 5 risk. it
should be noted that tomorrows risk is much more conditional
depending on where the front sets up shop. Currently we are
expecting showers and storms to fire along the I-35 corridor on east
with areas in the west not seeing much if anything. Additionally,
locally heavy rains are also possible if storms were to continue to
move over the same areas where many locations saw over an inch of
rain with some upwards over 4 inches. As such, WPC has the Coastal
Plains in a level 1 of 4 risk for excessive rainfall for tomorrow.
Regarding temperatures they will remain nearly seasonal through
Wednesday night with highs in the mid 80s and lows in the upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

- Level 1 of 5 risk for severe storms Thursday across the Rio Grande
  and into South Texas.

Thursday morning a quasi-stationary surface front will be situated
across the Coastal Plains and stretch west into Mexico. An upper
level shortwave is indicated by several models to round through
Chihuahua Mexico and the Big Bend during the morning and across our
region in the afternoon. Lift associated with this will allow for a
the development of widely scattered showers and storms Thursday
afternoon and evening in the higher terrain of Mexico and back east
along and south of the boundary through the Rio Grande Plains and
Winter Garden Region. In this region there is a Level 1 out of 5
risk for severe storms, where large hail and/or damaging wind gusts
could occur with isolated severe storms. There is a low chance
(10-30%) for isolated showers and storms north of the frontal
boundary, across the Hill Country, I-35 corridor, and inland Coastal
Plains. Activity is forecast to diminish after sunset.

Friday through the weekend will feature dry conditions along with
lower humidity with northerly winds. The exception is a low chance
(10-20%) of isolated, elevated showers Saturday afternoon and
evening across Williamson and Lee Counties, as a spoke mid level
moisture and energy wraps around the back side of an upper level low
centered near the Texas/Louisiana border. Cooler morning lows, and
warm afternoons with low humidity will prevail over the weekend.

Ridging aloft build over the area Monday and Tuesday with
temperatures warming.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Wed May 7 2025

VFR flying conditions will prevail. Some overnight into morning FEW-
SCT MVFR clouds can be expected. However, an area of IFR/MVFR CIGs
over eastern Texas may move over KAUS late tonight into early
Wednesday morning. PROBs for SHRA/TSRA have decreased somewhat and
have left mention out of the forecast. Will evaluate model/ensemble
and radar trends for possible later inclusion. At the I-35 sites, NE
to E winds generally 10 KTs or less with a few gusts to 20 KTs. At
KDRT, N winds less than 8 KTs shift to SE on Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              66  85  62  83 /  10  20  10  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  65  85  61  82 /  10  20  10  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     66  87  62  84 /  10  20  20  10
Burnet Muni Airport            62  83  59  79 /  10  20  10  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           69  90  64  89 /  30  50  40  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        63  83  60  80 /  10  20  10  10
Hondo Muni Airport             65  87  62  85 /  10  30  30  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        65  86  62  83 /  10  20  20  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   66  85  62  81 /  10  30  20  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       67  87  64  84 /  10  30  20  10
Stinson Muni Airport           69  87  65  86 /  10  30  20  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...04
Long-Term...Tran
Aviation...04