Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
443 FXUS64 KEWX 101823 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 123 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Slightly less stable conditions later in the week could signal a shift toward increasing rain chances. - Seasonably hot weather should continue with a near flat trend on high temperatures. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 120 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 An inverted trough in the mid-levels is making its way across the Coastal Plains and will remain over the region into the early part of the week. Isolated showers and thunderstorms over the Coastal Plains this afternoon should dissipate quickly this evening with the loss of daytime heating. The overnight period will be dry and warm. Low temperatures will be close to normal. Monday the inverted trough will push a little farther inland, though another trough over the central US will push southward and keep the southern trough axis east of the I-35 corridor. This will result in another round of isolated convection over the Coastal Plains. High temperatures will be about the same as today. Monday night will be nearly a replica of tonight. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 120 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Tuesday and Wednesday diurnal heating with some support aloft from the two troughs will combine with a surge of moist air from the Gulf spreading precipitation chances across nearly all of South-Central Texas each afternoon Tuesday and Wednesday. The best chances will be over the Coastal Plains and Hill Country. The subtropical ridge will build back over the region starting Thursday and any shower or thunderstorm activity will retreat back to the Coastal Plains. Models are not in good agreement for the end of the week. There is some indication of a stronger wave moving in from the Gulf Friday. If this solution verifies there will be higher chances for convection farther inland, but for the now the blended model solution is keeping higher rain chances over the east. Rain chances will retreat back toward the coast Saturday. The upper ridge will bring an end to rain chances Sunday. High temperatures continue in the 90s to near 100 degrees each day with lows mainly in the 70s. Heat indices will continue to be below heat advisory criteria, generally in the mid 90s to around 106 degree range. Although these temperatures are fairly typical for this time of year, continue to practice heat safety measures. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 120 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Isolated SHRA/TSRA have developed closer to the Texas coast midday. This activity will work inland through the afternoon, potentially as far west as the SAT area 22Z-02Z. Shifty and gusty winds are expected in and near these SHRA/TSRA. Activity is forecast to diminish after sunset. While most locations remain VFR over the next 30 hours, there is a window of patchy MVFR conditions 08Z-13Z Monday along and east of SAT-AUS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 76 96 76 97 / 10 10 10 20 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 74 96 75 96 / 10 10 10 20 New Braunfels Muni Airport 72 97 73 97 / 10 10 10 20 Burnet Muni Airport 73 94 73 94 / 0 10 10 30 Del Rio Intl Airport 78 100 79 99 / 0 0 10 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 74 96 75 96 / 0 10 10 20 Hondo Muni Airport 72 98 73 98 / 0 10 10 20 San Marcos Muni Airport 72 97 73 97 / 10 10 10 20 La Grange - Fayette Regional 74 94 75 95 / 10 20 10 30 San Antonio Intl Airport 76 97 76 97 / 10 10 10 20 Stinson Muni Airport 75 99 76 99 / 10 10 10 20 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...05 Long-Term...05 Aviation...76