884
FXUS64 KEWX 210600
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
100 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances of showers and thunderstorms through next week

- Locally heavy rains that may cause minor flooding, as well as
  gusty winds are possible through Friday

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH SATURDAY)...
The Subtropical Ridge remains centered over the Four Corners region
with a mid level shear axis nearly overhead or just southeast of our
area. Satellite imagery shows a slug of increased moisture with PWs
around 2+ inches associated with a mid level impulse moving south
into our area. A few showers and thunderstorms may develop over the
Hill Country and Edwards Plateau early this morning, then scattered
showers and thunderstorms over most areas are expected mainly during
the daytime hours as the impulse, shear axis, residual surface
boundaries, and moist airmass remain over our area. Locally heavy
rainfall that may cause minor flooding is possible due to high PWs
(150% of August averages) making for efficient rainfall processes
and a potential for slow moving or training rain cells. Wind gusts
to 50 mph are possible due to a moderately unstable airmass. Expect
mainly isolated coverage at night with loss of heating. Daytime
temperatures will be below mid August averages due to the clouds and
rain.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
The Ridge builds over our area later this weekend into early next
week with the impulse, shear axis, and moist airmass shifting south
of our area. Showers and thunderstorms become isolated during the
afternoon to correspond with peak heating. A cold front may drop
south into our area during the middle of next week leading to
an increase in chances of showers and thunderstorms. Due to more
sunshine, daytime temperatures warm to near late August averages
by early next week, then as clouds and rain increase drop to
below average middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
VFR conditions generally prevail through the TAF period with the
exception of any reductions in convective activity. Convective
allowing models are indicating isolated SHRA activity developing 09Z-
12Z across the Hill Country, moving south 12Z-18Z into portions of
the I-35 corridor as well as between SAT-DRT. TSRA development is
expected in the afternoon, becoming scattered in coverage. Due to
lower confidence in exact placement of storms, and how morning
activity evolves, PROB30 TSRA confidence is indicated in the TAFs in
the afternoon. Some wind gusts in excess of 30KT are possible in and
near TSRA activity.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              75  93  74  96 /  30  40  20  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  74  93  73  95 /  30  40  20  30
New Braunfels Muni Airport     73  94  72  95 /  30  60  30  30
Burnet Muni Airport            72  91  71  93 /  20  40  10  20
Del Rio Intl Airport           76  96  76  97 /  20  40  20  30
Georgetown Muni Airport        74  93  73  95 /  30  40  10  20
Hondo Muni Airport             72  93  72  94 /  30  60  20  30
San Marcos Muni Airport        73  93  71  95 /  30  60  20  30
La Grange - Fayette Regional   74  91  73  93 /  40  60  20  30
San Antonio Intl Airport       76  93  75  94 /  30  60  30  30
Stinson Muni Airport           76  95  76  95 /  30  60  30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...04
Long-Term...04
Aviation...76