325
FOUS30 KWBC 051504
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1004 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

Day 1
Valid 16Z Fri Dec 05 2025 - 12Z Sat Dec 06 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is lessthan 5 percent.

Cook/Churchill

Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Dec 06 2025 - 12Z Sun Dec 07 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is lessthan 5 percent.

Churchill

Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun Dec 07 2025 - 12Z Mon Dec 08 2025

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OFTHE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/NORTHERN PENINSULA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA...

A quasi-stationary front draped near the FL Panhandle may become
convectively active by Day 3, though uncertainty remains high as
instability still looks to be the main limiting factor. While
manymodels indicate unproblematic rainfall totals, other models
(the 00z GFS in particular) depict the potential for localized
trainingof convective cells along the front with heavy rainfall
within nearly unidirectional westerly flow aloft. Maintained an
inherited MRGL risk for now with localized flash flooding possible
should 3"+totals occur over a short period in a relatively
sensitive area.

Churchill

Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt