Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
796 FOUS30 KWBC 070050 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 850 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Day 1 Valid 01Z Sat Jun 07 2025 - 12Z Sat Jun 07 2025 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY... ...Texas Caprock... Multiple supercells will continue to plague the area within WFO Lubbock, TX CWA bounds with cells originally forming within the Caprock and moving eastward within the mean layer flow. Sufficient buoyancy and shear across the Southern High Plains will maintain severe thunderstorm posture for at least another 2-4 hours before any convection begins to collapse, or even induce cell mergers in the case of the activity between the NM/TX state lines through Northwest TX. Rainfall rates between 2-3"/hr with intra-hour rates up to 5"/hr will lead to flash flood concerns over an area still recovering from yesterdays barrage of rainfall from a similar convective evolution. The previous SLGT was generally maintained with a minor expansion to the northern edge to encompass left- moving supercells that are making headway towards the southern portion of the Panhandle. ...Southern Plains to Ozarks... A repeat of the pattern last evening with multiple mesocyclones currently situated over the Southeast CO Front Range will shift southeast with general motion with the upwind propagation vector. A distinct split heavy rain axis will transpire across the eastern TX Panhandle into OK with another across the Northern half of OK into Southern KS as the cells eventually merger into a large MCS that will propagate southeast towards Eastern OK into the Northwest AR Ozarks by the end of the forecast. Heavy rainfall between 2-4" with locally as high as 5" are forecast within the confines of the northern half of the expected complex, crossing through a region with saturated antecedent grounds thanks to the previous mornings MCS that hit the same areas as expected tonight. Anywhere from the I-40 corridor on north will have the potential for flash flooding due to the MCS with a high-end SLGT risk positioned over the OK/KS border where 1/3/6 hour FFG`s have been significantly degraded from previous activity last night into this morning. The SLGT risk was expanded on the northern edge from previous update to attribute to the latest heavy QPF footprint on the upwind side of the expected MCS development this evening. ...Ohio Valley... Large cluster of thunderstorms capable of 1-2"/hr rates will continue to maneuver eastward through the Ohio River Basin down into KY with a secondary batch of convection moving through TN with a few stronger cores. Shortwave energy associated with the cell conglomeration will motion eastward into the Central Appalachian Front leading to scattered heavier convection to shuffle through the Ohio River basin and KY into WV overnight. Signals for a few heavier cells over the terrain of Eastern KY into WV have been steady in the CAMs through the course of the day with some areas already been affected by previous heavy rain output during the D1 time frame. FFG`s remain relatively low in those areas from all the prior precip with some areas likely to reach over 2" in 24 hrs from all the convective impact in the time period. Considering the threat for heavy precip in back-to-back posture, a SLGT risk was maintained over KY and expanded to the east to include WV where hourly CAMs have been more aggressive with heavier QPF signals in the latest iterations. ...West Texas... Sufficient surface based instability on the order of 2000-4000 J/kg has allowed for scattered thunderstorms development across Southeast NM down through the Upper Trans Pecos of TX. Mean storm motions of 15-20 kts to the east should maintain relatively steady forward momentum of convection through the evening, but any strong convective core could throw out an easy 1-2" total within a short period of time leading to localized flash flood concerns over Southeast NM, Northwest Permian Basin, down through the mountains of Southwest TX. A MRGL risk remains for those areas, but was trimmed on either side to fit a more narrow axis where storms could survive before hitting a more capped environment near the Pecos river and points east. Kleebauer Day 2 Valid 12Z Sat Jun 07 2025 - 12Z Sun Jun 08 2025 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOWER ARKANSAS VALLEY, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...Eastern Oklahoma and Northeast Texas to Central/Northern Alabama... The second round of height falls moving into the Central to Southern Plains day 1 will continue to push east southeast toward the Mid to Lower MS Valley, OH and TN Valleys during day 2. Upper difluence is forecast to be well defined Saturday into Saturday night/early Sunday in an axis of above average PW values that will remain along the west to east oriented frontal boundary across these areas. This should support potential for another round of organized convection along this front as well as near a well- defined mid-level circulation passing to the north into the Ohio Valley. There is some spread with the qpf axes, but consensus that heavy amounts are possible. The inherited Slight Risk area was shifted a bit south and removed from most of TN given southern trends with the early morning MCS and related redevelopment along the associated lingering outflow boundary through the early evening into northeast TX. ...Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys... Mid-level wave ejecting out of the central Plains Saturday morning will continue to push eastward across the Ohio Valley. This feature will aid in increased moisture return and shear to provide for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. The inherited Marginal Risk was expanded northward to capture this trend of more precipitation attached to the mid-level low. A Slight Risk may be necessary across the Ohio Valley from southern IL to northern KY and southern OH, but this area is conditional on whether enough instability can build ahead of the mid-level shortwave pushing eastward. Should guidance come into better agreement this upgrade may be needed, with latest HREF probs for at least 2"/6-hr up to 40%. Antecedent conditions are also rather wet, so that will need to be considered as well with current convection for the next overnight update. ...Northeast PA through New England... Another round of convection possible early day 2 along the frontal boundary pushing through the northeast as a sharpening northern stream trof pushes eastward across northern NY into New England. The HREF neighborhood probabilities for the 12 hour period from 1200 UTC Saturday to 0000 UTC Sunday, are high along this front for 1 and 2"+ amounts. The previous marginal risk area was extended farther west into northeast PA to cover these higher 12 hour probabilities. There may need to be an upgrade to the risk level in future issuances depending upon where the heavy rains occur during day 1. Snell/Oravec Day 3 Valid 12Z Sun Jun 08 2025 - 12Z Mon Jun 09 2025 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...Southern Plains to the Southeast... Additional shortwave energy likely to push east southeastward late Sunday afternoon/evening from the lee of the Central to Southern Rockies into the Southern Plains under the influence of a much stronger upper level low centered over the north-central United States. This will again re- strengthen the low level flow into the west to east oriented front forecast to remain across the Southern Plains, supporting another round of organized convection along the front. There is fairly good agreement on the day 3 qpf axes in the models. Resulting in good continuity with the slight risk area with only a subtle expansion and south shift where widespread rainfall amounts of 2-4" are expected and higher amounts possible. Additional thunderstorm activity is expected from early morning convection and afternoon redevelopment along the frontal boundary through the Southeast, with mostly isolated flash flooding concerns. ...Central Appalachians and Upper Ohio Valley... Meanwhile, the mid-level wave progressing across the Ohio Valley on day 2 will continue into the central Appalachians and northern Mid-Atlantic while interacting with a lingering frontal boundary. This will produce additional areas of scattered areas of convection and the potential for isolated instances of flash flooding within typically sensitive terrain. There remains higher than average uncertainty regarding the speed of this system, which could impact the eventual flash flood risk area. Snell/Oravec Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt