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FOUS30 KWBC 050000
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
800 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Day 1
Valid 01Z Sat Jul 05 2025 - 12Z Sat Jul 05 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN AND NEAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA & SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...

...Central Texas...
The mid-level remains of Barry saw significant rejuvenation from
the convective event on Friday morning and early afternoon, which
has ramped up the effective bulk shear available when compared to
this time last night. The combination of this mid- level
circulation, precipitable water values of 2-2.25" (+3 std dev above
normal), and areas of 2000+ J/kg of ML CAPE should lead to another
overnight maximum for the warm core circulation. The 18z HREF
isn`t as emphatic with the signal for heavy rainfall, but the
environment continues to support hourly amounts to 3" with local
maximum of 6", assuming no long term backbuilding or training
occurs. The primary threat appears to be overnight during the usual
06z onward convective maximum for such a system with an upper
level high overhead. Shifted the 18z HREF footprint a little more
southward to better fit the southeast drift seen in water vapor
imagery with the mid-level circulation.


...Northern/Central Plains to the Upper Midwest...
Moderate to heavy amounts associated with training storms are still
expected early on across northern MN before the whole convective
area becomes progressive to the southeast. The various risk areas
were pared back on their west and north sides to accommodate
convective progression thus far and the signal in the 18z HREF.
Hourly rain amounts up to 2.5" remain possible where cell training
occurs this evening/tonight in northern MN.


...Western Florida...
Deep moisture pooling just east of a weak surface low offshore
Tampa and an upper low will continue to support an environment
conducive to heavy rainfall through the evening and overnight hours.
Hourly rain amounts up to 2.5" are possible where short, training
convective bands occur off the Gulf overnight.


...Northern Intermountain West/Rockies...
While most of the activity is expected fade after sunset,
convection is expected to hold on the longest across portions of
MT. Pared back the risk areas per convective progression thus far
and the signal in the 18z HREF.

Roth


Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Jul 05 2025 - 12Z Sun Jul 06 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR A PORTION OF
CENTRAL TEXAS...

...20Z Update...
Given heavy rain that fell today and the potential for continued
convection in Central Texas on Saturday, a Slight Risk has been
introduced in the Day 2 ERO. Hi-res models continue to show
thunderstorm potential for the southern Plains and Central Texas
through the day on Saturday, with potential for localized 4+ inch
rainfall totals. Areas of Central Texas will be extremely sensitive
to additional rain as soils will be saturated and rivers are in
flood stage. A Slight Risk area was introduced with the afternoon
update and encompasses areas that have and will receive heavy rain
today and could see additional storms on Saturday.

Elsewhere, the various Marginal Risk areas were maintained with
minor adjustments based on latest QPF trends from hi-res models.
The largest expansion was to include more of northern Montana and
northern Idaho underneath the upper shortwave/low where persistent
light to moderate rain could result in isolated instances of flash
flooding. The Marginal Risk area in the Upper Midwest was also
expanded southwards into northern Missouri and now includes the
Kansas City metro area, which could see locally heavy rain with
thunderstorm activity along a cold front on Saturday. There is a
higher risk of flash flooding in portions of Wisconsin and the
Michigan Upper Peninsula, but there is not enough confidence to
upgrade to a Slight Risk given the progressive nature of the
system.

A Marginal Risk area remains in place for the coastal Carolinas to
account for heavy tropical rain from Tropical Depression Three.
There is potential for a targeted Slight Risk upgrade, but there
was not enough confidence to upgrade at this time. This system is
forecast to produce 2-4, locally 6, inches of rain across the
coastal plains, which could result in isolated to scattered
instances of flash flooding, mainly in urban areas.

Dolan


...Previous Discussion...

...Northern High Plains...
A well-defined shortwave trough moving across the Northwest on Day
1, will move across the northern Rockies into the High Plains,
where it will interact with moisture pooling along a boundary
banked along the high terrain. Strong mid-to-upper level forcing
along with modest moisture anomalies will support storm
development, with some potential for locally heavy amounts as these
storms move east across eastern Montana and the western Dakotas.

...Upper Midwest...
A deep moisture plume (PWs ~2 inches) will continue to advance east
along with a well-defined shortwave trough across the Upper
Midwest/Great Lakes, supporting heavy rain across the region. Some
training may continue from Day 1 into Day 2, raising the threat for
additional heavy accumulations and flash flooding. However,
confidence in its placement is less than that in the previous day.
And with some of the guidance indicating a more progressive system,
and/or the focus for heavy amounts moving across Lake Superior into
Canada, opted to maintain just a Marginal Risk area for now.

...Central Texas...
While the models are far from in agreement, some including the
ECMWF, the Canadian, and the UKMET indicate that lingering moisture
and mid level energy will produce additional storms and potentially
heavy amounts across portions of central Texas, including those
areas being currently impacted by heavy rains.

...Southeast...
The model consensus shows an area of low pressure, now Tropical
Depression Three, becoming better organized and moving north along
the Southeast Coast. As it does, heavy rainfall may become more of
a concern across coastal sections of the Carolinas. Meanwhile,
deep moisture remaining across Florida will support another day of
showers and storms capable of producing heavy amounts.

Pereira

Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun Jul 06 2025 - 12Z Mon Jul 07 2025

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS...

...20Z Update...
The Marginal Risk areas were maintained in the afternoon update,
with minor adjustments based on the latest QPF trends. The Marginal
Risk area that stretches from the Great Lakes to the Central and
Southern High Plains was expanded to include most of southeastern
New Mexico where 0.25-0.5 inches of rain may fall in the vicinity
of sensitive burn scar areas. For the Marginal Risk area covering
the eastern Carolinas, a small northward expansion was made to
bring the risk area up to the North Carolina/Georgia border. The
heaviest rain from Tropical Depression Three is expected in the Day
2 period, but some lingering rainfall may lead ot isolated flash
flooding concerns.

Dolan


...Previous Discussion...

...Great Lakes to the Central and Southern Plains...
A shortwave trough over the Great Lakes will weaken and move east,
however deep moisture along its trailing boundary may support
showers and storms from the Great Lakes back through the mid
Mississippi Valley into the Plains. Mid level energy moving out
into the Central Plains may help support storm development and a
greater threat for heavier amounts across portions of the High
Plains into Kansas and Nebraska.

...Carolinas...
The models present a good deal of spread regarding the development
and track of a low now forming east of the Florida coast.
Regardless of development, heavy rain can be expected for at least
portions of the Carolinas this period. As the forecast becomes
clearer, adjustments in the placement and category of the ERO will
likely be necessary. But for now, given the uncertainty, opted to
maintain just a Marginal Risk covering much of the eastern
Carolinas.

Pereira

Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt