Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
885 FOUS30 KWBC 020826 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 426 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025 Day 1 Valid 12Z Sat Aug 02 2025 - 12Z Sun Aug 03 2025 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...Rockies and Plains... Scattered convection is forecast across the Rockies and adjacent High Plains as post-frontal very moist, upslope flow remains in place. At least one more focused corridor of heavy rainfall and locally greater risk for flash flooding is expected with the development of a mesoscale convective system as shortwave(s) in north-northwesterly flow pass over the central/southern High Plains. The latest guidance continues to signal the highest QPF values from southwest Kansas to the Texas Panhandle. There is also solid overlap of QPF in this location across the hi- res models, including the RRFS, as well as the ECMWF-AIFS AI model guidance. Deterministic guidance also suggests locally heavy rainfall totals of 2-4" will be possible, supported by at least low-end probabilities (20-30%) of 3"+ in the HREF. The Slight Risk area was maintained across the Southern/Central High Plains. ...South and Southeast... A strong cold front will advance southward through the Southeast, Deep South and westward in to Texas. A deep pool of moisture will remain readily available enhance local rainfall, especially with the presence of instability along and ahead of the front interacting with the right entrance region of the upper jet. Very heavy rainfall rates are expected and should drive an isolated to scattered flash flood risk. The latest guidance depicted less coverage of QPF across parts of northern Florida for this period thus lessening the threat for excessive rainfall. The southern bounds of the Slight Risk and Marginal Risk were reduced northward to reflect this trend. The front stretching west across the Gulf Coast states in a moist and unstable environment could promote scattered diurnal thunderstorms into Saturday thus maintaining the Marginal Risk with a small westward expansion across the western part of the Texas Hill Country. A small Slight Risk was maintained for portions of the southern Appalachians. Despite the passage of the cold front to the south, now available deterministic guidance and HREF probabilities show the potential for several inches of rainfall. Supportive upslope flow along the terrain as well as increased sensitivity may lead to some more scattered instances of flash flooding compared to adjacent areas of central to northern Alabama and Georgia. Campbell/Putnam Day 2 Valid 12Z Sun Aug 03 2025 - 12Z Mon Aug 04 2025 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND FOR THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...Southeast... The cold front continues on is journey southward, shifting the QPF footprint along with it. The heaviest rainfall still favors the far southern portions of South Carolina and southern Georgia. The Slight Risk was expanded westward to encompass more of southern Georgia. A broader Marginal Risk area covers the potential for isolated instances of excessive rainfall as far west as the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama. Parts of northern Florida was trimmed from the southern bounds of the Marginal. ...Plains... MCSs will persist during this period with another model cycle showing a small eastward shift in the footprint of the heaviest QPF. Convection will be fueled by the deep influx of PW near 2 inches and enhance rainfall rates within these complexes. The higher potential for excessive rainfall and flash flooding concerns will likely be focused from south-central Kansas to southern Oklahoma. The Slight Risk area was maintained for this period as well as expanded on the eastern side across central Oklahoma. A broader Marginal Risk is in place from central Texas northward to eastern North Dakota and northern Minnesota. Campbell Day 3 Valid 12Z Mon Aug 04 2025 - 12Z Tue Aug 05 2025 ...THERE ARE MARGINAL RISK AREAS FOR THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, NORTHERN PLAINS/MINNESOTA AND THE SOUTHEAST... ...Southeast... Showers and thunderstorms will persist across the Deep South and Southeast during this period in proximity to the slowing cold front. Guidance suggests some of the heaviest QPF will be right along the Gulf Coast or over the Gulf. Areal averages up to 1 to 2 inches expected with locally higher accumulations possible. A Marginal Risk is in place and spans from southeast Mississippi to Florida Panhandle and northeast to South Carolina. ...Northern Plains... Organized convection will persist across the Plains during this period although with a much smaller areal extent than days previous. Parts of the region will be wet from recent rain over multiple days and will likely have lowered FFG. A Marginal Risk spans from the eastern Dakotas to western Minnesota and extreme northwest Iowa. ...Northern Rockies... Southwest flow aloft will persist during this period, priming the region for scattered thunderstorms. Abundant PW will lead to locally enhanced rain rates and accumulations across western Montana where recent rains have focused. A Marginal Risk area covers much of western and north-central Montana. Campbell Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt