758
FPUS74 KEPZ 161848
NOWEPZ

Short Term Forecast
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1248 PM MDT Mon Sep 16 2024

NMZ401-403>411-414>417-425>429-TXZ418>424-170000-
Upper Gila River Valley-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-
Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Lowlands of the Bootheel-
Uplands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-
Eastern Black Range Foothills-Sierra County Lakes-
Northern Dona Ana County-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-
West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-
Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-
East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Otero Mesa-
Central Grant County/Silver City Area-
Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range-
West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands-
East Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-Southeast Tularosa Basin-
Western El Paso County-Eastern/Central El Paso County-
Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin-
Southern Hudspeth Highlands-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-
Including the cities of Cliff, Buckhorn, Gila Hot Springs,
Mule Creek, Hurley, Faywood, Grant County Airport, Lordsburg,
Red Rock, Virden, Antelope Wells, Animas, Hachita, Cloverdale,
Deming, Columbus, Hillsboro, Winston, Truth Or Consequences,
Derry, Spaceport, Garfield, Hatch, Radium Springs, Las Cruces,
Vado, Sunland Park, Mescalero, Timberon, Mountain Park,
Cloudcroft, Sunspot, Apache Summit, Mayhill, Pinon, Sacramento,
Crow Flats, Silver City, Mimbres, Fort Bayard, Lake Roberts,
Kingston, White Sands National Park, Chaparral,
White Sands Range Headquarters, Alamogordo, Tularosa,
Holloman AFB, Orogrande, Downtown El Paso, West El Paso,
Upper Valley, East and Northeast El Paso, Socorro, Fort Bliss,
Hueco Tanks, Loma Linda, Cornudas, Dell City, Salt Flat,
Sierra Blanca, Fabens, Fort Hancock, Tornillo,
and Indian Hot Springs
1248 PM MDT Mon Sep 16 2024

.NOW...
Upper low over central California this afternoon with diffluent
southwest flow over southern New Mexico and far west Texas. We`ll
see isolated showers and thunderstorms popping shortly after 2PM
today. Main threats will be brief heavy rain and gusty outflow
winds.

Mesoanalysis shows more unstable mid-level conditions further
west over the Continental Divide and AZ/NM state line today.
Instability parameters are quite low (less than 500 J/kg CAPE)
along and east of the Rio Grande today, but a bit higher
(1200-1800 J/kg) toward the AZ state line. Moisture content is
quite lacking, with precipitable water values of 0.9-1.1" and
surface dewpoints in the upper 50`s, again favoring southwest New
Mexico.

Mid-level jet streak remains fixed over Arizona, thus the
strongest storms will likely exist across eastern Arizona,
northwest New Mexico this evening. For our forecast area, storms
will be mostly isolated, but 20-30 knots of effective bulk shear
over Grant and Hidalgo Counties may be enough to allow for some
strong storms and even small hail.

Expect storm development in the next couple hours, with spotty
coverage focused across western New Mexico. Storms will drift to
the northeast at 15 to 25 mph, likely decaying in strength as they
move into the less favorable environment along the Rio Grande
corridor. Lingering rain showers will continue into the nighttime
hours, which may end up being El Paso`s best shot for rain between
9pm-12am.

$$

Dennhardt