652
FNUS74 KEPZ 202217
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Carrizo...GILA NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
417 PM MDT Tue May 20 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1600 MDT on May 20.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Elevated fire weather conditions over the next few days, mainly due to the
really dry and warm conditions that the incident will experience. For the
remainder of the evening, temperatures will slowly cool and RH values will
slowly increase, especially after sunset. Winds will become generally light
at 6 to 11 mph and terrain and drainage influence, or out of the northwest.
Temperatures will drop into the upper 50s with overnight recoveries between
15 to 20 percent. Elevated fire weather conditions expected on Wednesday with
RH values dropping to 6 to 10 percent and temperatures a 2 to 4 degrees warmer
than Tuesday. Winds will remain light at 7 to 12 mph with gusts to 17 to 20 mph
during the afternoon and evening, winds will be generally southwest.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 80.
Min humidity........5-8 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds around 10 to 15 mph. Winds will
decrease after sunset becoming northwesterly and
generally terrain/drainage driven.
Mixing height.......9200 ft AGL, quickly decreasing after sunset.
Transport winds.....West around 18 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (147700 knot-ft).

TIME (MDT)      4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........2   2
Weather cov.....NONENONE
Weather type....
Tstm cov........NONENONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0
Temp............78  78
RH..............10  10
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..10  10
20 FT wind gust.18  18
Mix hgt (kft)...9.2 9.2
Transp wind dir.W   W
Transp wind spd.18  18
Vrate kt-ft/1K..148 148
Ventrate Cat....VGD VGD

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 56-59 degrees.
Max humidity........15-20 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 8 to 13 mph shifting to the north
                    around 5 to 10 mph overnight. Winds will be
generally north/northwesterly in direction,
along with being terrain/drainage influenced.
Mixing height.......800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 14 to 17 mph shifting to the north
                    overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (137300 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
                    (9700 knot-ft) in the late evening and
                    overnight.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........5      5      4      6      6      3
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............77     72     64     62     61     59
RH..............12     15     16     17     18     18
20 ft wind......W 10   W 10   NW 8   N 8    N 7    N 7
20 ft wind gust.18     18     14     14     13     13
Mix hgt (ft)....8600   8600   800    800    800    800
Transport wind..W 17   W 17   NW 14  NW 14  N 12   N 12
Vrate kt-ft/1K..137    137    11     11     10     10
Ventrate Cat....VYGD   VYGD   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 81-85.
Min humidity........6-10 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds around 5 to 10 mph shifting to the
                    east in the morning, then shifting to the south
southwest at 7 to 12 mph with gusts to 17 to 20
mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......11300 ft AGL during the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northeast around 10 mph shifting to the
                    southwest 10 to 14 mph in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (21700 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to very good (102600 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to excellent (156900
                    knot-ft) late in the afternoon.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........2         1         2         2
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
Temp............57        69        78        83
RH..............19        16        11        7
20 FT wind......NE 7G14   E 5G13    SW 6G16   SW 9G18
Mix hgt (ft)....3600      3600      10300     11300
Transport wind..NE 10     NE 10     SW 10     W 14
Vrate kt-ft/1K..22        22        103       157
Ventrate Cat....POOR      POOR      VYGD      EXNT

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.THURSDAY...
Clear. Lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the upper 80s. Northwest
winds around 7 mph.
.FRIDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the upper 80s. West
winds around 9 mph.
.SATURDAY...
Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the lower 80s.
West winds around 10 mph.

$$
Forecaster...ROGERS
Requested by...Silver City Interagency Dispatch Center
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2514362.0/EPZ
.DELDT 05/20/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nmsdc@firenet.gov