Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
766
FNUS74 KEPZ 130006
FWSEPZ
Spot Forecast for Goose Fire...GILA NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
606 PM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0600 MDT on July 13.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
As the upper-level ridge of high pressure shifts west over Arizona, moisture is
beginning to work back into the Gila region from the east. Despite that, conditions
over the fire will be warm and dry through the morning hours. Temperatures will
warm to the lower 90s, with minimum RH in the teens by noon. Daytime heating
and upslope flow will make for unstable atmospheric conditions by late morning.
Expect late morning cumulus cloud formation, with towering cumulus buildups
by noon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through the afternoon
across the Gila. This will cool temperatures and raise relative humidity for the
mid and late afternoon hours. Storms will move toward the fire from the north and
northeast, as they track to the south and southwest. Watch for lightning and erratic
gusty outflow winds.
.SUNDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent) through the morning...then
becoming mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance
of showers and thunderstorms early in the
afternoon, then showers and thunderstorms likely
late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent by noon...then increasing to 70 percent
through the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 94.
Min humidity........17-19 percent around noon...than increasing with
afternoon clouds and rain showers.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds early...then variable. Speeds mostly light.
Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......2400 ft AGL increasing to 12400 ft AGL in the late
morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....West around 6 mph shifting to the north around
9 mph in the late morning and early afternoon,
then shifting to the southwest around 12 mph
late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (14200 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to very good (103900 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........14 14 4 74 74 86
Weather cov.....NONE NONE S CHC CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY
Weather type....NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE NONE S CHC CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 20 50 50 70
Temp............55 63 77 90 93 86
RH..............66 52 33 18 20 22
20 ft wind......SW 2 SW 4 W 5 VRB 5 VRB 5 VRB 5
20 ft wind gust.3 3 7 12 12 14
Mix hgt (ft)....2400 2400 12400 12400 11500 11500
Transport wind..W 6 W 6 N 9 N 9 SW 12 SW 12
Vrate kt-ft/1K..14 14 100 100 104 104
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR GOOD GOOD VYGD VYGD
.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Showers and
thunderstorms likely in the evening, then
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
overnight.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 55.
Max humidity........77 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......1400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 11 to 14 mph shifting to the
southeast around 7 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (75100 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (9900 knot-ft) late in the
night.
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky (%).........79 79 75 76 76 63
Weather cov.....LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY S CHC S CHC S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY S CHC S CHC S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).70 70 70 20 20 20
Temp............79 74 68 65 60 56
RH..............30 37 49 56 64 74
20 ft wind......N 0 N 0 N 0 N 0 N 0 N 0
20 ft wind gust.14 14 10 8 8 6
Mix hgt (ft)....6800 6800 1400 1400 2000 2000
Transport wind..NE 14 NE 14 NE 11 NE 11 SE 7 SE 7
Vrate kt-ft/1K..75 75 10 10 13 13
Ventrate Cat....GOOD GOOD POOR POOR POOR POOR
.MONDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......90 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 87.
Min humidity........25 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......9200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South around 4 mph shifting to the east around
7 mph in the late morning and early afternoon,
then shifting to the south around 11 mph late
in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (9000 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (64100 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 10 AM 2 PM
Sky (%).........44 38 83
Weather cov.....NONE NONE DEFNTE
Weather type....NONE NONE RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE NONE DEFNTE
Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 90
Temp............55 73 86
RH..............77 43 26
20 FT wind......N 0G3 N 0G8 N 0G12
Mix hgt (ft)....3000 9200 5300
Transport wind..S 4 E 7 S 11
Vrate kt-ft/1K..9 64 48
Ventrate Cat....POOR GOOD FAIR
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.TUESDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 50s.
Highs around 90. Light winds.
.WEDNESDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 50s.
Highs around 90. Light winds.
.THURSDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 50s.
Highs in the mid 80s. Light winds.
$$
Forecaster...BIRD
Requested by...Silver City Dispatch
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2517818.2/EPZ
.DELDT 07/12/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nmsdc@firenet.gov