Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
503
FNUS74 KEPZ 141621
FWSEPZ
Spot Forecast for Mayberry...GILA NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1021 AM MDT Thu Aug 14 2025
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1100 MDT on August 14.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Marginally drier air over the Gila today, but still plenty enough
moisture for daytime heating and upslope flow to produce afternoon
rain showers and thunderstorms. Expect a mix of sun and clouds this
morning, with buildups beginning by midday. Showers and storms will
follow by mid afternoon. Temperatures will be seasonal, RH above
critical levels, and winds mostly light, with the exception of gusty
and erratic storm outflow winds. Moisture increases tomorrow, with
rain and storm coverage expected to increase through the weekend. We
expect somewhat cooler temperatures, more cloud cover, and higher
RH. Burnscar flash flooding potential will be on the rise. Daily
rounds of afternoon storms will persist through early next week.
.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (15-25 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of
rain showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 79.
Min humidity........22 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 7 mph. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms in the
afternoon.
Mixing height.......10600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 5 mph shifting to the northeast
around 6 mph in the late morning and early
afternoon, then shifting to the south late in
the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (5400 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to fair (55100 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
TIME (MDT) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........20 50 65 71 77 80 77
Weather cov.....NONELKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........NONECHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%). 5 20 40 50 60 60 60
Temp............73 78 75 72 72 72 69
RH..............25 22 25 28 28 29 35
20 FT wind dir..NW N N N SW SW SW
20 FT wind spd..5 6 6 6 7 7 7
20 FT wind gust.9 12 12 12 13 13 13
Mix hgt (kft)...11 11 11 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2
Transp wind dir.NE NE NE S S S S
Transp wind spd.6 6 6 6 6 6 6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..55 55 55 48 48 48 48
Ventrate Cat....FR FR FR FR FR FR FR
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) then becoming
partly cloudy (35-45 percent). Chance of
thunderstorms early in the evening. Chance of
rain showers in the evening, then slight chance
of rain showers overnight.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 58.
Max humidity........57 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds around 7 mph. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
evening.
Mixing height.......0 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 7 to 11 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (0 knot-ft).
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky (%).........73 73 62 48 48 36
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC S CHC S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........CHANCE CHANCE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).30 30 20 20 20 20
Temp............69 66 63 61 60 58
RH..............36 43 48 51 51 55
20 ft wind......W 7 W 7 W 7 W 7 W 7 W 7
20 ft wind gust.13 13 10 10 10 9
Mix hgt (ft)....5700 5700 BLW100 BLW100 BLW100 BLW100
Transport wind..W 10 W 10 NW 11 NW 11 NW 7 NW 7
Vrate kt-ft/1K..40 40 0 0 0 0
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then
rain showers with thunderstorms likely in the
afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 71.
Min humidity........37 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 6 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms late in the
morning. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......5500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest around 6 mph shifting to the
southwest around 8 mph in the late morning and
afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (6600 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to fair (43700 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
Sky (%).........39 33 80 77
Weather cov.....NONE S CHC DEFNTE LIKELY
Weather type....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE S CHC LIKELY LIKELY
Chc of pcpn (%).20 50 70 70
Temp............58 61 69 66
RH..............57 51 37 47
20 FT wind......W 5G9 NW 5G9 W 6G13 W 6G14
Mix hgt (ft)....1100 1100 5500 4900
Transport wind..NW 6 NW 6 SW 8 W 8
Vrate kt-ft/1K..7 7 44 39
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR FAIR POOR
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SATURDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 50s.
Highs in the upper 60s. West winds around 5 mph.
.SUNDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the mid
50s. Highs in the lower 70s. Light winds.
.MONDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the
upper 50s. Highs in the mid 70s. Light winds.
$$
Forecaster...BIRD
Requested by...Silver City Dispatch
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2519904.0/EPZ
.DELDT 08/14/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nmsdc@firenet.gov