454
FNUS74 KEPZ 182223
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Negrito Rx...GILA NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
423 PM MDT Fri Oct 18 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 MDT on October 19.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

After somewhat active weather this weekend, weather conditions will become
warm and dry next week (Monday-Friday). High temperatures each afternoon next
week will be 5-10 degrees above the seasonal normal with afternoon Min RH values
between 15-25%. Winds will be light through the period, generally out of the
southwest during the afternoon at 5-13 mph with gusts up to 18 mph. Increasing
mixing heights through the week will lead to generally Fair to Good smoke
ventilation rates. Vent rates will be Poor to Fair on Monday. Skies will be
mostly clear each day with little to no precipitation chances.

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (65-75 percent). Chance of snow
                    showers early in the morning, then slight
                    chance of rain showers, thunderstorms and snow
                    showers in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 3 until 1500, then 1.
Max temperature.....Around 46.
Min humidity........45 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 12 to 16 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......5400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 18 to 27 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (25500 knot-ft) increasing to very good
                    (125400 knot-ft) in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      8 AM         NOON         4 PM
Sky (%).........56           80           69
Weather cov.....CHANCE       S CHC        S CHC
Weather type....SNSHWR       SNSHWR       RNSN
Tstm cov........NONE         S CHC        NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).30           20           20
LAL.............1            3            1
Temp............30           43           45
RH..............85           53           47
20 FT wind......S 12G17      S 16G28      S 15G28
Mix hgt (ft)....1500         5400         5200
Transport wind..S 18         S 27         S 27
Haines index....2            3            3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..26           135          125
Ventrate Cat....POOR         VYGD         VYGD

.SATURDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent) then becoming
                    mostly clear (20-30 percent). Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms early in the evening. Slight
                    chance of rain showers in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................3 until 2100, then 1.
Min temperature.....Around 32.
Max humidity........72 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 6 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    evening.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 11 to 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (57700 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (3700 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM         10 PM        2 AM
Sky (%).........62           53           24
Weather cov.....S CHC        S CHC        NONE
Weather type....RNSHWR       RNSHWR       NONE
Tstm cov........S CHC        NONE         NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).20           20           0
LAL.............3            1            1
Temp............44           37           34
RH..............49           61           66
20 FT wind......S 10G20      S 7G13       S 6G12
Mix hgt (ft)....3200         300          300
Transport wind..S 14         S 11         S 14
Haines index....3            3            2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..58           4            4
Ventrate Cat....FAIR         POOR         POOR

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 55.
Min humidity........23 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 8 to 14 mph.
Mixing height.......5800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 11 to 19 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (10500 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to very good (105400 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM         10 AM        2 PM
Sky (%).........14           16           14
Weather cov.....NONE         NONE         NONE
Weather type....NONE         NONE         NONE
Tstm cov........NONE         NONE         NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).5            5            0
LAL.............1            1            1
Temp............32           42           55
RH..............66           48           26
20 FT wind......S 8G17       S 12G23      SW 14G25
Mix hgt (ft)....1100         5600         5800
Transport wind..S 11         SW 19        SW 19
Haines index....2            2            3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..11           102          105
Ventrate Cat....POOR         VYGD         VYGD

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.MONDAY...
Mostly clear. Morning lows in the lower 30s. Temperatures rebound through
the day topping out in the low to middle 60s. Min RH values during the
afternoon will be around 20%. Winds light at 5-10G15 mph out of the N/NE
during the morning, becoming S/SW during the afternoon at 5-10G15 mph. Afternoon
mixing of 4500-5500 feet, along with weak transport winds will lead to Poor to
Fair smoke ventilation rates.

.TUESDAY...
Mostly clear. Morning lows in the upper 30s. Temperatures rebound through
the day topping out in the upper 60s to low 70s. Min RH values during the
afternoon will be 15-20%. Winds light at 5-10G15 mph out of the east
during the morning, becoming S/SW during the afternoon at 5-10G15 mph. Afternoon
mixing of 6000-7000 feet, along with slightly stronger transport winds will
lead to Fair to Good smoke ventilation rates.

.WEDNESDAY...
Mostly clear. Morning lows in the lower 40s. Temperatures rebound through
the day topping out in the middle to upper 60s. Min RH values during the
afternoon will be 15-20%. Winds light at 5-10G15 mph out of the east
during the morning, becoming S/SW during the afternoon at 5-10G15 mph. Afternoon
mixing of 7000-8000 feet, along with slightly stronger transport winds will
lead to Fair to Good smoke ventilation rates.

.THURSDAY...
Mostly clear. Morning lows in the middle 40s. Temperatures rebound through
the day topping out in the middle to upper 60s. Min RH values during the
afternoon will be 20-25%. Winds light at 8-13G18 mph out of the east
during the morning, becoming S/SW during the afternoon at 5-10G15 mph. Afternoon
mixing of 7000-8000 feet, along with slightly stronger transport winds will
lead to Fair to Good smoke ventilation rates.

.FRIDAY...
Mostly clear. Morning lows in the middle 40s. Temperatures rebound through
the day topping out in the middle to upper 60s. Min RH values during the
afternoon will be 18-25%. Winds light at 8-13G18 mph out of the east
during the morning, becoming S/SW during the afternoon at 5-10G15 mph. Afternoon
mixing of 6500-7500 feet, along with slightly stronger transport winds will
lead to Good smoke ventilation rates.

$$
Forecaster...ROGERS
Requested by...Michael Head
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2424428.0/EPZ
.DELDT 10/18/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL michael.l.head@usda.gov