440
FNUS74 KEPZ 182206
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Rincon Arroyo...Dona Ana Flood Commission
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
406 PM MDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1559 MDT on August 18.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
A almost tropical airmass remains in place, lending itself to
highly efficient rainmakers. Scattered to numerous storms will
persist into Tuesday with some storms being capable of intense
rain rates. This will allow the flooding risk to continue until
midweek, when moisture begins to diminish. Storm total
accumulation between Monday afternoon and Wednesday are around
0.15 to 0.35 inches, with higher amounts likely if the area sees a
direct hit from a thunderstorm. Much drier air will take
residence on Thursday, limiting storms to the high terrain.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (35-45 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the evening, then
                    slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
                    overnight.
Min temperature.....Around 69.
Max humidity........81 percent.
Dewpoint............58 increasing to 62 in the late evening and
                    overnight.
Surface winds (mph).Light winds.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM      9 PM      MIDNGT    3 AM
Sky (%).........66        70        60        41
Weather cov.....CHANCE    CHANCE    S CHC     NONE
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    NONE
Tstm cov........CHANCE    CHANCE    S CHC     NONE
Temp............92        82        77        73
Dewpoint........57        60        63        62
RH..............31        47        62        68
Surface wind....E 4G12    E 4G7     E 2G7     E 2G6

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 93.
Min humidity........31 percent.
Dewpoint............61 decreasing to 57 late in the afternoon.
Surface winds (mph).Southeast winds around 5 mph.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........35        21        12        44
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      CHANCE    CHANCE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      CHANCE    CHANCE
Temp............70        75        87        92
Dewpoint........62        63        60        57
RH..............76        66        40        31
Surface wind....E 2G6     E 2G8     SE 5G12   SE 5G14

.TUESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the evening.
Min temperature.....Around 69.
Max humidity........73 percent.
Dewpoint............58.
Surface winds (mph).East winds around 5 mph in the evening becoming
                    light.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM         10 PM        2 AM
Sky (%).........38           38           45
Weather cov.....CHANCE       CHANCE       NONE
Weather type....RNSHWR       RNSHWR       NONE
Tstm cov........CHANCE       CHANCE       NONE
Temp............89           80           74
Dewpoint........57           59           60
RH..............34           49           62
Surface wind....E 5G13       E 5G8        N 3G7

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 94.
Min humidity........28 percent.
Dewpoint............59 decreasing to 54 late in the afternoon.
Surface winds (mph).Light winds becoming east around 5 mph in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM         10 AM        2 PM
Sky (%).........36           26           22
Weather cov.....NONE         NONE         S CHC
Weather type....NONE         NONE         RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE         NONE         S CHC
Temp............69           80           91
Dewpoint........60           60           55
RH..............73           51           30
Surface wind....NE 4G7       NE 4G10      E 5G14

$$
Forecaster...BREITREITER
Requested by...Matt Friedberg
Type of request...OTHER
.TAG 2500000.0/EPZ
.DELDT 08/18/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL matthewfr@donaana.gov