371
FNUS74 KEPZ 042123
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for 2025 Programmatic Piles...USDA Forest Service
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
323 PM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1500 MDT on July 04.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Drier air will work its way into the forecast area today through
the weekend, bringing significant reductions in RH. MinRH today
near the burn will plummet around 30 percent compared to
Thursday`s readings, settling around 30 percent. Typical afternoon
breezes can be expected, with gusts staying generally below 20
mph. Given the low magnitudes, winds will favor terrain influences
for their directions. Ventilation will improve from Thursday,
with similar conditions expected for Saturday. Chances for showers
will return Sunday, with isolated development favoring the high
terrain.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 74.
Min humidity........34 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds around 9 mph.
Mixing height.......6600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest around 18 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (98800 knot-ft).

TIME (MDT)      3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........6   6   6
Weather cov.....NONENONENONE
Weather type....
Tstm cov........NONENONENONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0
Temp............72  72  72
RH..............35  35  34
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..9   9   9
20 FT wind gust.20  20  20
Mix hgt (kft)...6.6 6.6 6.6
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.18  18  18
Vrate kt-ft/1K..99  99  99
Ventrate Cat....GD  GD  GD

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 56.
Max humidity........55 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 6 mph.
Mixing height.......0 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 10 to 13 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (75200 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (0 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.

TIME (MDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........6   6   6   7   7   7   6   6   6   4   4   4
Weather cov.....NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
Weather type....
Tstm cov........NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............72  73  70  66  63  61  60  60  59  58  58  58
RH..............35  34  38  43  48  49  51  51  53  55  53  51
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  W   W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   5   5   5   6   6   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.18  18  18  13  13  13  14  14  14  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.13  13  13  13  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Vrate kt-ft/1K..75  75  75  75  0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Ventrate Cat....GD  GD  GD  GD  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 80.
Min humidity........23 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 6 to 7 mph shifting to the
                    northeast around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......9700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 8 to 17 mph shifting to the east around 7
                    mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (33800 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (67800 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (MDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........5   5   5   4   4   4   8   8   8   43  43  43
Weather cov.....NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
Weather type....
Tstm cov........NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10
Temp............57  58  62  67  73  76  77  78  78  78  79  78
RH..............53  51  44  36  28  25  24  23  24  25  24  24
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT wind spd..7   7   7   6   6   6   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.16  16  16  16  16  16  14  14  14  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.4 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.7
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.17  17  17  17  8   8   8   8   7   7   7   7
Vrate kt-ft/1K..34  34  34  34  60  60  60  60  68  68  68  68
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  GD  GD  GD  GD  GD  GD  GD  GD

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SUNDAY...
Mostly clear. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the
mid 50s. Highs in the mid 70s. East winds around 5 mph.
.MONDAY...
Partly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the
lower 50s. Highs in the lower 70s. Southeast winds around 5 mph.
.TUESDAY...
Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the
mid 50s. Highs in the mid 70s. Light winds.

$$
Forecaster...BREITREITER
Requested by...Matthew Barone
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2517344.0/EPZ
.DELDT 07/04/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Matthew.barone@usda.gov