515
FNUS74 KEPZ 122250
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Iron...USFS
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
450 PM MDT Mon May 12 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0700 MDT on May 13.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT TUESDAY...
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY...

.DISCUSSION...

Red Flag conditions next couple afternoons due to dry air and
gusty southwest winds. Peak gusts around 40 mph both Tuesday and
Wednesday. Lighter winds overnight. Consistent wind direction
from the WSW through Saturday may cause flare ups and growth to
the N and E. Not anticipating additional Red Flags later this
week as winds fall below critical thresholds, but conditions
remain very dry with no precipitation.

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 66.
Min humidity........18 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 12 to 18 mph. Gusts up to 32
                    mph increasing to 41 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......8400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 26 mph increasing to 48 to 53
                    mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (94400 knot-ft) increasing to excellent
                    (359600 knot-ft) in the late morning and
                    afternoon.

TIME (MDT)      7 AM      10 AM     1 PM      4 PM
Sky (%).........11        3         6         6
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
Temp............46        58        63        65
RH..............32        22        20        18
20 FT wind......W 12G23   SW 16G32  SW 18G38  W 18G41
Mix hgt (ft)....3100      7800      7800      8400
Transport wind..SW 26     SW 48     SW 48     W 53
Vrate kt-ft/1K..94        360       360       391
Ventrate Cat....GOOD      EXNT      EXNT      EXNT

.TUESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 41.
Max humidity........37 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 10 to 16 mph. Gusts up to 41
                    mph decreasing to 28 mph after 3 am.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 37 mph decreasing to 21 to 24
                    mph in the late evening and overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (302300 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
                    (9400 knot-ft) in the late evening and
                    overnight.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM      9 PM      MIDNGT    3 AM
Sky (%).........12        8         10        15
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
Temp............62        54        49        45
RH..............20        25        30        35
20 FT wind......SW 16G41  SW 16G36  SW 13G33  SW 10G28
Mix hgt (ft)....7400      7400      600       500
Transport wind..SW 37     SW 37     SW 24     SW 21
Vrate kt-ft/1K..302       302       14        9
Ventrate Cat....EXNT      EXNT      POOR      POOR

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 59.
Min humidity........11 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 10 to 16 mph with gusts to
                    around 38 mph.
Mixing height.......6200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 29 mph increasing to 42 to 45
                    mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (116000 knot-ft) increasing to
                    excellent (240200 knot-ft) in the late morning
                    and afternoon.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........22        22        15        11
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
Temp............42        50        56        59
RH..............36        27        17        13
20 FT wind......SW 10G32  SW 16G38  SW 16G37  W 16G35
Mix hgt (ft)....3500      3500      6100      6200
Transport wind..SW 29     SW 29     SW 45     W 42
Vrate kt-ft/1K..116       116       245       240
Ventrate Cat....VYGD      VYGD      EXNT      EXNT

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.THURSDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the lower 60s. West
winds around 7 mph.
.FRIDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the mid 60s. West
winds around 6 mph.
.SATURDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the mid 60s.
Southwest winds around 7 mph.

$$
Forecaster...DENNHARDT
Requested by...Gila T3 IMT
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2512872.8/EPZ
.DELDT 05/12/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL donavan_albert@firenet.gov