994
FNUS74 KEPZ 282005
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Goose...USFS
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
205 PM MDT Mon Jul 28 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1000 MDT on July 29.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
A moist airmass will produce scattered thunderstorms again on Tuesday.
Heavy rainfall/flooding is possible Tuesday. Thunderstorm chances and
flood potential will decrease some Wednesday and Thursday, though some
flooding could still occur. Friday into the weekend will still see a
slight chance of thunderstorms, but mainly just during the afternoon
hours. Temperatures will also warm to above normal for this period.

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms late in the morning, then
                    thunderstorms with showers likely in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 82.
Min humidity........41 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 6 mph shifting to the east
                    around 6 mph late in the afternoon. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in
                    the late morning and early afternoon. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late
                    in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......5100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East around 9 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (45100 knot-ft).

TIME (MDT)      10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........68     63     63     69
Weather cov.....CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY DEFNTE
Chc of pcpn (%).30     60     60     80
Temp............72     78     81     82
RH..............62     46     41     48
20 ft wind......SE 5   S 6    S 6    E 6
20 ft wind gust.10     13     13     13
Mix hgt (ft)....5100   5100   5000   5000
Transport wind..E 9    E 9    NE 9   NE 9
Vrate kt-ft/1K..46     46     45     45
Ventrate Cat....FAIR   FAIR   FAIR   FAIR

.TUESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
Min temperature.....57-62.
Max humidity........78-83 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds around 5 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 5 to 6 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2300 knot-ft).

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........86     86     80     68     68     58
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).50     50     50     30     30     30
Temp............79     72     67     64     62     60
RH..............54     61     65     70     75     81
20 ft wind......NE 5   NE 5   E 5    E 5    E 5    NE 5
20 ft wind gust.13     13     10     12     12     9
Mix hgt (ft)....2900   2900   500    500    400    400
Transport wind..SE 5   SE 5   E 6    E 6    E 6    E 6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..18     18     3      3      2      2
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent). Showers and
                    thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 84.
Min humidity........37 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds around 5 mph shifting to the south
                    around 6 mph in the afternoon. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in
                    the afternoon.
Mixing height.......6500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 7 to 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (10600 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair (51800 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........49        39        46        65
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      LIKELY    LIKELY
Weather type....NONE      NONE      RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      LIKELY    LIKELY
Chc of pcpn (%).10        10        70        70
Temp............59        71        80        84
RH..............80        64        40        38
20 FT wind......NE 5G9    E 5G12    S 6G14    S 6G14
Mix hgt (ft)....1500      1500      6500      6000
Transport wind..SE 7      SE 7      S 8       S 10
Vrate kt-ft/1K..11        11        52        47
Ventrate Cat....POOR      POOR      FAIR      FAIR

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.THURSDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the
upper 50s. Highs in the mid 80s. Northeast winds around 5 mph.
.FRIDAY...
Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows
in the upper 50s. Highs in the mid 80s. North winds around 5 mph.
.SATURDAY...
Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows
in the upper 50s. Highs in the upper 80s. Northeast winds around
5 mph.

$$
Forecaster...HEFNER
Requested by...NMSDC
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2518753.0/EPZ
.DELDT 07/28/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nmsdc@firenet.gov