704
FNUS74 KEPZ 301940
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for 16 Springs RX 2025...LINCOLN NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1240 PM MST Thu Jan 30 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1300 MST on January 30.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...
Gusty winds this afternoon with gusts of 45-55 mph. Winds
diminishing through the evening hours. Otherwise, the remainder
of the forecast period will remain dry with warming temperatures.
Highs will be well above normal through the period. Humidities will
lower into the critical threshold after today. However, no significant
winds are expected after this afternoon.

**On or about February 1, 2025, the NWS will discontinue Haines Index
  and Lightning Activity Level(LAL) in all Fire Weather Products. The
  discontinuation is due to the new science demonstrating the forecast
  information is best assessed through other forecast fields.**

.THIS AFTERNOON...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 38.
Min humidity........42 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Breezy. West winds 24 to 26 mph with gusts to
                    around 47 mph.
Mixing height.......2900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 45 to 46 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (118400 knot-ft).
Haines Index........2.

TIME (MST)      1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........12  12  8   8   8
Weather cov.....NONENONENONENONENONE
Weather type....
Tstm cov........NONENONENONENONENONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0
Temp............35  36  37  37  35
RH..............45  43  44  42  47
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..26  26  24  24  24
20 FT wind gust.47  47  47  47  47
Mix hgt (kft)...2.7 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.45  46  46  46  46
Haines index....2   2   2   2   2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..119 118 118 118 118
Ventrate Cat....VGD VGD VGD VGD VGD

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 25.
Max humidity........49 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 10 to 18 mph with gusts to around 43
                    mph shifting to the northwest around 8 mph
                    after 10 pm.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 25 to 32 mph decreasing to around 16
                    mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (8000 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4.

TIME (MST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........9   9   9   7   7   7   6   6   6   6   6   6
Weather cov.....NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
Weather type....
Tstm cov........NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............34  34  32  32  32  31  31  31  30  29  29  28
RH..............47  47  49  49  49  47  47  45  44  46  46  46
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..18  18  18  13  13  13  10  10  10  8   8   8
20 FT wind gust.43  43  43  32  32  32  24  24  24  17  17  17
Mix hgt (kft)...0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.32  32  32  32  25  25  25  25  16  16  16  16
Haines index....3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3   3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..24  24  24  24  13  13  13  13  8   8   8   8
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 56.
Min humidity........14 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds around 6 mph early in the morning
                    becoming light, then becoming southeast around
                    5 mph early in the afternoon becoming light.
Mixing height.......5700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 7 to 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (6000 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4.

TIME (MST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........7   7   7   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
Weather cov.....NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
Weather type....
Tstm cov........NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............27  28  31  40  46  51  53  55  55  56  54  50
RH..............46  42  36  27  22  17  15  14  14  14  16  20
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   S   S   S   SE  SE  SE  S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   4   4   4   5   5   5   4   4   4
20 FT wind gust.14  14  14  9   9   9   12  12  12  12  12  12
Mix hgt (kft)...1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.10  10  10  10  7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7
Haines index....3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..6   6   6   6   31  31  31  31  34  34  34  34
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SATURDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 20s. Highs in the upper 50s. West
winds around 9 mph.
.SUNDAY...
Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the upper 60s.
West winds around 11 mph.
.MONDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the lower 70s. West
winds around 8 mph.

$$
Forecaster...HEFNER
Requested by...Matthew Barone
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2501898.0/EPZ
.DELDT 01/30/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL matthew.barone@usda.gov