929
FNUS74 KEPZ 101719
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for RX Sheridan Slash Pit...Gila National Forest
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1119 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 MDT on August 11.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Scattered thunderstorms tomorrow early in the afternoon, transitioning
to showery activity after dark and diminishing. A better monsoonal
tap of moisture will begin Wednesday, allowing for slightly better
storm chances with more areawide coverage. Even more active with
storm activity Thursday afternoon and into the weekend. Flash flooding
will be the primary threat with storms. Min RHs will be 25% Tuesday but
increases to 38% by Thursday. 20 foot winds will remain light each
afternoon at 5-10 mph.

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent) then becoming partly
                    sunny (55-65 percent). Chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 93.
Min humidity........26 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming west 5 to 6 mph in the
                    afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......9200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North around 6 mph shifting to the west late in
                    the morning, then shifting to the northeast
                    around 7 mph early in the afternoon shifting to
                    the northwest 8 to 9 mph late in the afternoon
                    shifting to the north around 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (64400 knot-ft) .

TIME (MDT)      7 AM   9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Sky (%).........25     16     7      7      51     64
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      30     50     33
Temp............61     69     83     89     89     84
RH..............78     59     36     27     27     34
20 ft wind......NW 2   W 3    W 3    SW 5   W 6    W 6
20 ft wind gust.6      9      9      12     15     15
Mix hgt (ft)....500    1200   4100   7500   9200   4600
Transport wind..N 6    N 6    W 6    NE 7   W 9    N 10
Vrate kt-ft/1K..3      6      20     45     64     33
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   FAIR   GOOD   POOR

.TUESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 59.
Max humidity........90 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 5 to 7 mph in the evening becoming
                    light. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms in the evening.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 7 to 12 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3200 knot-ft).

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........49     34     41     29     36     44
Weather cov.....S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).20     20     20     0      0      0
Temp............78     73     70     68     65     62
RH..............43     55     61     65     73     84
20 ft wind......NW 7   NW 7   N 5    N 3    N 3    N 2
20 ft wind gust.15     15     13     10     10     7
Mix hgt (ft)....3000   900    500    500    500    500
Transport wind..N 12   N 9    NW 8   N 8    N 7    N 7
Vrate kt-ft/1K..30     8      4      4      3      3
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Chance of
                    thunderstorms early in the afternoon. Rain
                    showers likely in the afternoon. Thunderstorms
                    likely late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 88.
Min humidity........32 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming west 6 to 8 mph in the
                    afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms early in the afternoon.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......7200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North around 6 mph shifting to the west 9 to 13
                    mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (68400 knot-ft) .

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........43        24        28        44
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      LIKELY    LIKELY
Weather type....NONE      NONE      RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      CHANCE    LIKELY
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         60        60
Temp............60        66        84        86
RH..............90        73        38        34
20 FT wind......N 2G7     W 3G9     SW 6G15   W 8G16
Mix hgt (ft)....500       1700      6900      7200
Transport wind..N 6       NW 6      W 6       SW 10
Vrate kt-ft/1K..3         8         41        65
Ventrate Cat....POOR      POOR      FAIR      GOOD

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.THURSDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms. Lows around 60. Highs
in the mid 80s. Light winds.
.FRIDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the
upper 50s. Highs in the mid 80s. Light winds.
.SATURDAY...
Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows
around 60. Highs in the upper 80s. Light winds.

$$
Forecaster...SLUSHER
Requested by...RXB3
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2619368.0/EPZ
.DELDT 08/10/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL corrina.valencia@usda.gov,nmsdc@firenet.gov,zachary.armijo@usda.gov