967
FNUS74 KEPZ 191912
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Turkeyfeather...GNF
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
112 PM MDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0700 MDT on July 20.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Monsoonal moisture remains in place over the burn area through
next week with showers and thunderstorms developing by mid day
and continuing through the early evening hours. Storm chances may
decrease by mid week as the deeper moisture shifts east. There
is some risk of heavy rainfall from stronger storms along with
variable strongh wind gusts and small hail as main impacts.
Outside of gusty outflows, winds will be light from the
south-southwest with relative humidity above critical levels.
Temperatures stay around normal.

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent) then becoming partly
                    sunny (55-65 percent). Chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms early in the afternoon. Rain
                    showers and thunderstorms likely late in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 78.
Min humidity........32 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south around 5 mph in the
                    afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......8600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest around 6 mph shifting to the south 9
                    to 10 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (21100 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (84500 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (MDT)      1 AM   3 AM   5 AM   7 AM   9 AM   11 AM
Sky (%).........20     11     11     57     62     62
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY
Chc of pcpn (%).0      10     10     50     70     70
Temp............52     69     74     76     75     72
RH..............80     49     36     32     33     39
20 ft wind......NW 1   NW 3   NW 3   SW 5   S 5    S 5
20 ft wind gust.7      9      9      13     14     14
Mix hgt (ft)....3500   3500   8500   8500   8600   8600
Transport wind..NW 6   NW 6   S 9    S 9    S 10   S 10
Vrate kt-ft/1K..21     21     76     76     85     85
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   GOOD   GOOD   GOOD   GOOD

.SUNDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the evening, then
                    slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
                    overnight.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 50.
Max humidity........80-86 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 6 to 9 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (47800 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (5000 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.

TIME (MDT)      NOON      3 PM      6 PM      9 PM
Sky (%).........65        61        61        62
Weather cov.....CHANCE    CHANCE    S CHC     S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........CHANCE    CHANCE    S CHC     S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).50        50        20        20
Temp............71        64        57        54
RH..............40        53        66        74
20 FT wind......SW 4G13   SW 2G9    SW 2G9    W 2G7
Mix hgt (ft)....6200      6200      800       800
Transport wind..SW 8      SW 8      W 9       W 6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..48        48        7         5
Ventrate Cat....FAIR      FAIR      POOR      POOR

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Showers and
                    thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
Max temperature.....75-80.
Min humidity........31 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 7 mph in
                    the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......8100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 5 to 12 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (14300 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (86400 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (MDT)      MIDNGT    3 AM      6 AM      9 AM
Sky (%).........38        28        45        51
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      LIKELY    LIKELY
Weather type....NONE      NONE      RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      LIKELY    LIKELY
Chc of pcpn (%).10        10        70        70
Temp............51        67        73        75
RH..............80        48        34        32
20 FT wind......W 2G7     SW 3G10   SW 5G14   SW 7G16
Mix hgt (ft)....2900      2900      8100      7800
Transport wind..W 5       W 5       SW 7      SW 12
Vrate kt-ft/1K..14        14        66        86
Ventrate Cat....POOR      POOR      GOOD      GOOD

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.TUESDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows around 50.
Highs in the mid 70s. Light winds.
.WEDNESDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the
upper 40s. Highs in the upper 70s. Light winds.
.THURSDAY...
Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows around
50. Highs in the upper 70s. Light winds.

$$
Forecaster...LUNDEEN
Requested by...Donavan Albert
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2518169.2/EPZ
.DELDT 07/19/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL donavan_albert@firenet.gov