941
FNUS74 KEPZ 211907
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Turkeyfeather...GILA NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
107 PM MDT Mon Jul 21 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1400 MDT on July 21.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop this afternoon
with at least a slight chance of rain continuing overnight.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected again
tomorrow though there is uncertainty regarding timing, dependent
on how long showers and storms last into the morning. Heavy
rainfall, gusty winds, and lightning will be the main hazards.
Outside of storms expect partly to mostly cloudy skies with light
winds, largely driven by terrain. Smoke transport will generally
be to the east or southeast with fair venting in the afternoon.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the
                    afternoon, then showers and thunderstorms
                    likely late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
Max temperature.....75-80.
Min humidity........33 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds around 7 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......7800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 9 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (59200 knot-ft).

TIME (MDT)      2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........72     67
Weather cov.....CHANCE LIKELY
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........CHANCE LIKELY
Chc of pcpn (%).40     60
Temp............72     71
RH..............36     39
20 ft wind......SW 7   SW 7
20 ft wind gust.15     16
Mix hgt (ft)....7800   7800
Transport wind..W 9    W 9
Vrate kt-ft/1K..59     59
Ventrate Cat....FAIR   FAIR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the evening.
                    Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
    overnight.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 50.
Max humidity........82 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds around 6 mph early in the
                    evening becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the evening.
Mixing height.......800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 7 to 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (46300 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (6700 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM      9 PM      MIDNGT    3 AM
Sky (%).........67        68        62        66
Weather cov.....CHANCE    CHANCE    S CHC     S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........CHANCE    CHANCE    S CHC     S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).40        40        10        10
Temp............68        62        57        54
RH..............44        59        67        75
20 FT wind......SW 6G16   W 4G14    W 3G12    W 2G9
Mix hgt (ft)....5100      5100      800       800
Transport wind..SW 10     SW 10     W 9       W 7
Vrate kt-ft/1K..46        46        8         7
Ventrate Cat....FAIR      FAIR      POOR      POOR

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the morning.
                    Rain showers and thunderstorms likely early in
                    the afternoon, then showers and thunderstorms
                    late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
Max temperature.....70-75.
Min humidity........39-45 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 6 mph in
                    the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......4100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest around 6 mph shifting to the west 6
                    to 8 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (13900 knot-ft).

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........65        47        73        82
Weather cov.....S CHC     S CHC     LIKELY    DEFNTE
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........S CHC     S CHC     LIKELY    DEFNTE
Chc of pcpn (%).20        30        70        80
Temp............51        64        68        68
RH..............81        53        45        50
20 FT wind......NW 2G7    NW 3G10   W 5G14    SW 6G15
Mix hgt (ft)....2800      2800      4100      4000
Transport wind..NW 6      NW 6      W 6       W 8
Vrate kt-ft/1K..14        14        23        30
Ventrate Cat....POOR      POOR      POOR      POOR

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.WEDNESDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the
upper 40s. Highs in the lower 70s. Light winds.
.THURSDAY...
Mostly clear. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in
the upper 40s. Highs in the upper 70s. Light winds.
.FRIDAY...
Mostly clear. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in
the upper 40s. Highs in the lower 80s. Light winds.

$$
Forecaster...BROWN
Requested by...Donavan Albert
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2518169.4/EPZ
.DELDT 07/21/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL donavan_albert@firenet.gov