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FNUS74 KEPZ 161609
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Sacaton...USFS
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1009 AM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1100 MDT on July 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected today with a 70% chance for
rain at the site. Especially considering the burn scar, flash
flooding would be the main concern as expected rainfall amounts
will range 0.25-0.50", but there is about a 20-30% rainfall
amounts will exceed one inch. Thunderstorms will develop early in
the afternoon and then weaken and dissipate in the late afternoon
or early evening. Precip chances will be low to none overnight
through tomorrow morning before storms redevelop. Otherwise, highs
will be below normal today beneath partly to mostly cloudy skies
with light, terrain-driven winds with higher winds near
thunderstorms.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers late in the morning, then thunderstorms
                    likely in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 68.
Min humidity........49 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 5 mph late in the morning
                    becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......4300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 6 to 9 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (23700 knot-ft).

TIME (MDT)      11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Sky (%).........81     77     67     67
Weather cov.....S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE   LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).20     70     50     50
Temp............65     66     65     64
RH..............53     51     55     60
20 ft wind......S 5    SW 4   SW 3   SW 3
20 ft wind gust.9      10     12     12
Mix hgt (ft)....3300   4300   4300   4200
Transport wind..S 9    S 8    S 7    SE 6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..26     28     26     24
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent) then becoming
                    mostly clear (20-30 percent). Chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms early in the evening, then
                    slight chance of showers and thunderstorms late
                    in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 48.
Max humidity........86-93 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms in the evening.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 6 to 8 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3400 knot-ft).

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........59     59     57     27     27     23
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE S CHC  NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........CHANCE CHANCE S CHC  NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).30     30     20     0      0      0
Temp............64     63     57     55     53     51
RH..............58     60     77     79     79     82
20 ft wind......SW 2   SW 2   SW 1   SW 1   SW 1   SW 1
20 ft wind gust.9      9      8      6      6      6
Mix hgt (ft)....3200   1400   600    600    600    600
Transport wind..SW 7   SW 8   SW 7   SW 7   SW 7   SW 7
Vrate kt-ft/1K..19     10     4      3      4      4
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent) then becoming partly
                    sunny (60-70 percent). Increasing chances for
showers and thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 71.
Min humidity........43 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest around 5 mph in
                    the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......6400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 6 to 12 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (51200 knot-ft) .

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........21        13        61        72
Weather cov.....NONE      S CHC     CHANCE    LIKELY
Weather type....NONE      RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE      S CHC     CHANCE    LIKELY
Chc of pcpn (%).0         20        40        60
Temp............50        61        68        66
RH..............83        61        46        49
20 FT wind......SW 0G6    SW 2G8    SW 5G13   SW 5G14
Mix hgt (ft)....600       3100      6400      5100
Transport wind..S 6       S 6       S 9       SW 12
Vrate kt-ft/1K..3         19        51        45
Ventrate Cat....POOR      POOR      FAIR      FAIR

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SATURDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 40s.
Highs around 70. Light winds.
.SUNDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 40s.
Highs in the lower 70s. Light winds.
.MONDAY...
Partly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 40s.
Highs in the lower 70s. Light winds.

$$
Forecaster...BROWN
Requested by...NMSDC
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2617478.0/EPZ
.DELDT 07/16/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nmsdc@firenet.gov