Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
672
FNUS74 KEPZ 172257
FWSEPZ
Spot Forecast for RX D5 District Wide Piles / 3 Circles / Hwy...GILA NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
457 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 MDT on September 18.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Our monsoon season continues to sputter to the end. We will see
little chance for rain through the weekend. Min RH`s will range
from 15 to 25% the next several days. We will have light winds on
Wednesday and Wednesday night. On Thursday, the winds will be from
the southwest at 5 to 15 mph and we may see some wind gusts of 20
to 25 mph. Ventilation rates will be good each afternoon over the
next couple of days.
.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 79.
Min humidity........25 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 7 to 8 mph in
the afternoon.
Mixing height.......7000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest around 6 mph shifting to the
southwest 12 to 16 mph in the late morning and
afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (14500 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (97700 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........7 3 11 11 12
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1
Temp............56 67 73 77 77
RH..............69 49 33 28 25
20 ft wind......E 2 S 4 SW 7 SW 7 SW 8
20 ft wind gust.5 9 14 14 16
Mix hgt (ft)....2400 6300 6300 7000 7000
Transport wind..NW 6 SW 12 SW 12 SW 16 SW 16
Haines index....3 3 2 3 3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..15 82 82 98 98
Ventrate Cat....POOR GOOD GOOD GOOD GOOD
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 52.
Max humidity........52 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds around 7 mph early in the
evening becoming light.
Mixing height.......1100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 7 to 11 mph shifting to the northwest
overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (87300 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (5800 knot-ft) late in the
night.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky (%).........15 15 14 14 14 13
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............73 65 61 58 57 55
RH..............26 34 41 45 47 51
20 ft wind......SW 7 SW 7 NW 4 N 2 N 2 N 2
20 ft wind gust.14 14 8 5 5 3
Mix hgt (ft)....6700 6700 1100 1100 1100 1100
Transport wind..SW 11 SW 11 W 7 W 7 NW 6 NW 6
Haines index....2 2 2 2 3 3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..87 87 8 8 6 6
Ventrate Cat....GOOD GOOD POOR POOR POOR POOR
.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 81.
Min humidity........19 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest around 8 mph
with gusts to around 21 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......7600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East around 7 mph increasing to south 16 to 18
mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (16000 knot-ft) increasing to very good
(116200 knot-ft) in the late morning and
afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
Sky (%).........8 5 17 24
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1
Temp............54 65 76 79
RH..............52 41 24 20
20 FT wind......NW 2G6 SW 4G14 SW 8G21 SW 8G21
Mix hgt (ft)....2300 2300 7200 7600
Transport wind..E 7 E 7 S 16 S 18
Haines index....4 4 3 3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..16 16 116 122
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR VYGD VYGD
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.FRIDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs around 80. West winds
around 5 mph.
.SATURDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the upper 70s.
Northwest winds around 5 mph.
.SUNDAY...
Clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs around 80. North winds around
5 mph.
$$
Forecaster...BRICE
Requested by...Silver City Interagency Dispatch
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2422255.0/EPZ
.DELDT 09/18/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nmsdc@firenet.gov