249
FNUS74 KEPZ 220008
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for RX Feely Piles...USFS
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
508 PM MST Thu Nov 21 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1800 MST on November 21.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure aloft will allow for winds to remain light and
variable in and around the burn site. Expect winds to be
influenced by the terrain, with downslope winds overnight becoming
upslope by the late morning. Dry conditions will prevail with
minimum RH hovering above critical thresholds. Similar conditions
are expected on Saturday, with a slight increase in winds.
Ventilation will be poor tomorrow, increasing to fair to good on
Saturday and Sunday.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (20-30 percent) then becoming
                    clear (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 38.
Max humidity........43 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast 5 to 6 mph in
                    the late evening and overnight.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 7 to 8 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2600 knot-ft).
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........26     26     3      3      3      5
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............51     46     43     41     40     39
RH..............27     31     32     33     33     31
20 ft wind......SE 4   SE 4   SE 5   SE 6   SE 6   E 5
20 ft wind gust.10     10     10     10     10     10
Mix hgt (ft)....400    400    400    400    400    400
Transport wind..SE 7   SE 7   E 8    E 8    E 7    E 7
Haines index....5      5      5      5      5      5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..3      3      3      3      3      3
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 67.
Min humidity........19 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    south early in the afternoon, then becoming
                    light late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East around 8 mph shifting to the southwest 7
                    to 8 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3500 knot-ft).
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........25     25     27     15     15     9
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............38     43     56     64     66     64
RH..............29     27     19     14     14     16
20 ft wind......SE 5   SE 5   SE 5   S 5    S 5    SW 3
20 ft wind gust.10     10     9      13     13     12
Mix hgt (ft)....400    400    2600   2600   2800   2800
Transport wind..E 8    E 8    S 7    S 7    SW 8   SW 8
Haines index....5      5      5      5      5      5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..4      4      19     19     20     20
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.FRIDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 39.
Max humidity........42 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming northeast around 5 mph
                    late in the evening, then becoming light
                    overnight.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast around 5 mph shifting to the
                    northeast around 6 mph in the late evening and
                    overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1500 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MST)      6 PM         10 PM        2 AM
Sky (%).........9            6            3
Weather cov.....NONE         NONE         NONE
Weather type....NONE         NONE         NONE
Tstm cov........NONE         NONE         NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0            0            0
LAL.............1            1            1
Temp............52           45           41
RH..............26           29           31
20 FT wind......E 3G8        NE 5G8       NE 4G8
Mix hgt (ft)....400          400          400
Transport wind..SE 5         NE 6         NE 6
Haines index....5            5            4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..2            2            2
Ventrate Cat....POOR         POOR         POOR

$$
Forecaster...BREITREITER
Requested by...Chris  Powers
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2426867.2/EPZ
.DELDT 11/21/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL ty.oliver@usda.gov,daniel.london@usda.gov,nmsdc@firenet.gov