113
FNUS74 KEPZ 112237
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Apple Fire...LINCOLN NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
437 PM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1600 MDT on June 11.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

We will see quiet conditions tonight with decent RH recoveries of
around 50%. The moisture begins to return to the region on Friday
and we will see a chance of rain for Friday through Monday. The
thunderstorms on Friday afternoon could produce some large hail
and strong and gusty outflow winds. Winds away from the
thunderstorms will be light for Friday and Saturday. Min RH`s on
Friday will be above 30% with the increased moisture. Warmer and
drier weather looks to return to the region for the middle of next
week.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 77.
Min humidity........14 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds around 7 mph.
Mixing height.......10500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 10 to 12 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (91700 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to very good (105300 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (MDT)      4 PM
Sky (%).........48
Weather cov.....NONE
Weather type....NONE
Tstm cov........NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0
Temp............76
RH..............14
20 ft wind......W 7
20 ft wind gust.17
Mix hgt (ft)....10500
Transport wind..NW 12
Vrate kt-ft/1K..105
Ventrate Cat....VYGD

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (35-45 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 54.
Max humidity........49 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds around 5 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light, then becoming east 7 to 9 mph
                    overnight.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 7 to 12 mph shifting to the south 6 to 12
                    mph in the late evening and overnight, then
                    shifting to the southeast around 12 mph
                    overnight shifting to the east 10 to 12 mph
                    after 3 am.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (98500 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (2900 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........63     63     36     48     48     36
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............73     66     61     60     58     56
RH..............15     21     24     26     37     43
20 ft wind......W 5    W 5    SW 3   E 7    E 7    E 9
20 ft wind gust.15     15     10     20     20     20
Mix hgt (ft)....9800   600    600    600    600    600
Transport wind..NW 12  W 7    S 6    S 8    SE 12  E 10
Vrate kt-ft/1K..99     4      3      4      6      5
Ventrate Cat....GOOD   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 73.
Min humidity........34 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 6 to 8 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......8300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 9 to 12 mph decreasing to around 8
                    mph early in the afternoon, then shifting to
                    the east late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (5000 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair (59800 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........58        60        63        50
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      CHANCE    CHANCE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      CHANCE    CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         40        40
Temp............55        63        71        70
RH..............49        43        35        38
20 FT wind......SE 8G20   SE 7G17   SE 7G15   NE 6G16
Mix hgt (ft)....600       2500      8000      5300
Transport wind..E 12      SE 9      S 8       E 13
Vrate kt-ft/1K..6         20        56        59
Ventrate Cat....POOR      POOR      FAIR      FAIR

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SATURDAY...
Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows
in the lower 50s. Highs in the mid 70s. South winds around 6 mph.
.SUNDAY...
Partly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the
lower 50s. Highs in the upper 60s. Southeast winds around 5 mph.
.MONDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms. Lows
in the upper 40s. Highs in the upper 60s. Southeast winds around
5 mph.

$$
Forecaster...BRICE
Requested by...Devin Clay
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2615379.0/EPZ
.DELDT 06/11/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL lcdevin@gmail.com