Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS

Home |  Current Version |  Previous Version |  Text Only |  Print | Product List |  Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
878
FNUS74 KEPZ 111151
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for 16 Springs RX...USFS
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
551 AM MDT Mon May 11 2026

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 MDT on May 11.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Above average warmth will continue the next few days with dry conditions.
Light breezes today and tomorrow afternoon with 20 foot wind speeds of 2-5
mph. Min RHs this afternoon will be around 26% but continued dry and warm
weather will decrease RHs to 17% Tuesday and 14% Wednesday. Wednesday
will be a bit breezier with wind speeds of 5-10 mph out of the south.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 74.
Min humidity........27 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south around 5 mph late in
                    the afternoon.
Mixing height.......9500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 6 to 10 mph shifting to the west
                    around 12 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1300 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (88700 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (MDT)      7 AM   9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Sky (%).........18     3      3      9      27     27
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      10     6      3
Temp............44     52     65     70     72     73
RH..............89     66     41     35     31     27
20 ft wind......S 2    SE 3   SE 3   SE 4   S 5    S 5
20 ft wind gust.6      10     10     13     14     14
Mix hgt (ft)....500    1700   3600   8600   9400   8900
Transport wind..SW 6   S 6    S 7    SW 10  SW 10  W 12
Vrate kt-ft/1K..1      9      38     67     84     88
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   GOOD   GOOD   GOOD

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 47.
Max humidity........52 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 10 to 18 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (78100 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (0 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........5      5      2      4      4      4
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............71     63     53     51     52     52
RH..............28     35     46     46     46     46
20 ft wind......W 5    W 5    W 5    W 6    W 6    W 8
20 ft wind gust.13     13     12     15     15     17
Mix hgt (ft)....7800   600    500    500    600    500
Transport wind..W 12   W 10   W 12   W 15   W 17   W 17
Vrate kt-ft/1K..78     27     0      7      8      7
Ventrate Cat....GOOD   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent) then becoming partly sunny
                    (60-70 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 81.
Min humidity........17 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 8 mph in the morning becoming
                    light.
Mixing height.......9700 ft AGL increasing to 11000 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 12 to 18 mph shifting to the northwest 6
                    to 8 mph late in the morning, then shifting to
                    the north around 6 mph early in the afternoon
                    shifting to the east around 7 mph late in the
                    afternoon shifting to the southwest around 10
                    mph shifting to the west late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (9000 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (65100 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........7         4         13        63
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         4         10
Temp............53        70        79        79
RH..............44        27        17        20
20 FT wind......W 8G17    NW 6G16   NE 3G10   S 3G12
Mix hgt (ft)....600       3700      11000     10800
Transport wind..W 18      W 12      N 6       E 7
Vrate kt-ft/1K..9         37        55        65
Ventrate Cat....POOR      POOR      FAIR      GOOD

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.WEDNESDAY...
Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the lower 80s.
Southwest winds around 5 mph.
.THURSDAY...
Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the upper 70s.
Southwest winds around 8 mph.
.FRIDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the upper 70s. West
winds around 10 mph.

$$
Forecaster...SLUSHER
Requested by...Hayley Boss
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2612954.4/EPZ
.DELDT 05/11/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL hayley.boss@usda.gov,matthew.barone@usda.gov,hchrisboss@gmail.com