318
FNUS74 KEPZ 121642
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Goose Fire...Forest Service
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1042 AM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1100 MDT on July 12.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
An influx of moisture to the Borderland will bring and increase
in coverage of storms near the fire this afternoon, though chances
of a direct hit at the fire remain relatively low. Storms today
both distant and near will be capable of sudden, strong, and
erratic gusty winds that could impact the fire. Some gusts could
exceed 50 to 55 MPH, with sudden shifts in direction. Lightning
into receptive fuel beds could generate new starts nearby.
Otherwise, very low minimum RH will persist again today, settling
in the low double digits. Unsettled weather will continue tomorrow
with storms in vicinity in the afternoon.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 94.
Min humidity........12 to 14 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. Gusts up to 20 mph late in the
                    afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......15100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 8 to 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (120600 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (155400 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (MDT)      11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Sky (%).........5      50     75     75
Weather cov.....NONE   CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE   CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      30     40     40
Temp............88     93     90     89
RH..............17     14     15     19
20 ft wind......N 0    N 0    N 0    N 0
20 ft wind gust.12     16     20     20
Mix hgt (ft)....15100  15100  14500  14500
Transport wind..W 8    W 8    W 14   W 14
Vrate kt-ft/1K..121    121    155    155
Ventrate Cat....VYGD   VYGD   EXNT   EXNT

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (20-30 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 54.
Max humidity........67 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms in the evening.
Mixing height.......1100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 13 mph shifting to the south 6
                    to 8 mph in the late evening and overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (79500 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (7700 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........71     71     54     33     33     19
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).40     40     30     10     10     10
Temp............85     80     73     67     62     58
RH..............21     27     37     43     51     62
20 ft wind......N 0    N 0    N 0    N 0    N 0    N 0
20 ft wind gust.17     17     12     6      6      5
Mix hgt (ft)....5700   5700   1100   1100   1100   1100
Transport wind..SW 13  SW 13  S 8    S 8    S 6    S 6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..80     80     9      9      8      8
Ventrate Cat....GOOD   GOOD   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent) then becoming mostly
                    cloudy (75-85 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms late in the morning.
                    Chance of showers and thunderstorms early in
                    the afternoon, then showers and thunderstorms
                    likely late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 94.
Min humidity........15 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......2400 ft AGL increasing to 12400 ft AGL in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....West around 6 mph shifting to the north around
                    9 mph in the late morning and early afternoon,
                    then shifting to the southwest around 12 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (14200 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to very good (103900 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM         10 AM        2 PM
Sky (%).........14           4            74
Weather cov.....NONE         S CHC        CHANCE
Weather type....NONE         RNSHWR       RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE         S CHC        CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).0            20           50
Temp............55           77           93
RH..............67           33           15
20 FT wind......N 0G3        N 0G7        N 0G12
Mix hgt (ft)....2400         12400        11500
Transport wind..W 6          N 9          SW 12
Vrate kt-ft/1K..14           100          104
Ventrate Cat....POOR         GOOD         VYGD

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.MONDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 50s.
Highs in the upper 80s. Light winds.
.TUESDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 50s.
Highs around 90. Light winds.
.WEDNESDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 50s.
Highs around 90. Light winds.

$$
Forecaster...BREITREITER
Requested by...Silver City Dispatch
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2517818.1/EPZ
.DELDT 07/12/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nmsdc@firenet.gov