916
FNUS74 KEPZ 070036
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Iron...USFS
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
Issued by National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
636 PM MDT Tue May 6 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0800 MDT on May 07.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Nearby shower activity is diminishing this hour and conditions will
continue to clear overnight. Wednesday`s showers will begin
developing over the nearby high terrain b/w 1pm to 2pm with bouts
of light to moderate rain and gusty winds through the afternoon
reaching the fire location or nearby areas. Shower activity again
diminishes Wednesday evening. Thursday sees lower precipitation
chances, however a stray shower should it develop would favor the
Mogollon Rim and move southeast.

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent) then becoming mostly
                    cloudy (75-85 percent). Rain showers likely in
                    the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 54.
Min humidity........35 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest around 8 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Mixing height.......8000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North around 5 mph shifting to the southwest 6
                    to 8 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (10800 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair (40000 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (MDT)      8 AM      11 AM     2 PM      5 PM
Sky (%).........13        18        81        83
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      LIKELY    LIKELY
Weather type....NONE      NONE      RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).10        10        70        70
Temp............35        49        52        52
RH..............78        42        38        39
20 FT wind......W 1G5     NW 4G9    SW 8G13   SW 8G14
Mix hgt (ft)....2200      8000      5600      5600
Transport wind..N 5       S 6       SW 8      SW 8
Vrate kt-ft/1K..11        40        37        37
Ventrate Cat....POOR      FAIR      POOR      POOR

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (25-35 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 32.
Max humidity........83 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds around 5 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest around 9 mph shifting to the
                    northeast around 8 mph in the late evening and
                    overnight, then shifting to the southeast
                    around 9 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (64000 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (3000 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM      9 PM      MIDNGT    3 AM
Sky (%).........76        60        36        23
Weather cov.....S CHC     S CHC     NONE      NONE
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).20        20        0         0
Temp............52        44        37        34
RH..............39        58        75        82
20 FT wind......W 5G13    N 3G8     NE 3G7    NE 3G6
Mix hgt (ft)....8000      8000      400       400
Transport wind..NW 9      NW 9      NE 8      SE 9
Vrate kt-ft/1K..64        64        3         4
Ventrate Cat....GOOD      GOOD      POOR      POOR

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent) then becoming partly
                    sunny (55-65 percent). Slight chance of rain
                    showers in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 60.
Min humidity........26 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming west around 5 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......9000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast around 8 mph shifting to the west 9
                    to 10 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (17500 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (81000 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........14        25        55        63
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      S CHC     S CHC
Weather type....NONE      NONE      RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         20        20
Temp............33        45        57        59
RH..............78        55        30        28
20 FT wind......E 2G7     SE 3G9    SW 5G12   W 5G12
Mix hgt (ft)....2500      2500      9000      8200
Transport wind..SE 8      SE 8      SW 10     W 9
Vrate kt-ft/1K..18        18        81        66
Ventrate Cat....POOR      POOR      GOOD      GOOD

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.FRIDAY...
Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the mid 60s. Light
winds.
.SATURDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the
lower 40s. Highs in the lower 60s. Southeast winds around 6 mph.
.SUNDAY...
Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the mid 60s.
Southeast winds around 6 mph.

$$
Forecaster...GUEST
Requested by...Gila T3 IMT
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2512872.2/EPZ
.DELDT 05/06/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL david_isackson@firenet.gov