Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
265
FNUS74 KEPZ 092042
FWSEPZ
Spot Forecast for Daisy Fire...USDA - Forest Service
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
242 PM MDT Sat Aug 9 2025
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0600 MDT on August 10.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Scattered showers this evening, becoming dry overnight. Light
north winds 5 to 10 mph and RH increasing to 50-60%. Increased
moisture on Sunday, leading to higher afternoon storm chances and
better RH. Storms will be capable of erratic winds and lightning.
Highest risk between 2-6PM. Min RH 20-30% with prevailing NW winds
10 to 15 mph leading to Good ventilation by late morning.
Daily afternoon storm chances this upcoming week with good
ventilation during the daytime. Best storm coverage locally looks
to be Sunday, then more isolated activity Monday.
Chance of wetting rain (CWR):
Sunday - 70 percent
Monday - 50 percent
Tuesday - 70 percent
Wednesday - 60 percent
Thursday - 60 percent
.SUNDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of
showers and thunderstorms late in the morning.
Rain showers and thunderstorms likely in the
afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 77.
Min humidity........25 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds around 5 mph shifting to the
northeast in the late morning and early
afternoon, then shifting to the northwest late
in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms in the late morning
and afternoon.
Mixing height.......9200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 9 to 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (32100 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (72600 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
TIME (MDT) MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A
Sky (%).........38 38 38 20 20 20 61 61 61 71 71 71
Weather cov.....NONENONENONECHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........NONENONENONECHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 40 40 40 60 60 60 70 70 70
Temp............54 53 59 66 72 75 76 75 75 73 71 68
RH..............52 52 47 37 29 26 25 27 27 30 32 36
20 FT wind dir..NW NW NW NE NE NE E E E NW NW NW
20 FT wind spd..5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
20 FT wind gust.13 13 13 12 12 12 13 13 13 15 15 15
Mix hgt (kft)...3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 9.2 9.2 9.2 9.2 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5
Transp wind dir.N N N N NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
Transp wind spd.9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10
Vrate kt-ft/1K..32 32 32 32 73 73 73 73 66 66 66 66
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR GD GD GD GD GD GD GD GD
.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
partly cloudy (40-50 percent). Chance of
showers and thunderstorms in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 51.
Max humidity........66 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds around 5 mph. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms in the
evening.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 7 to 9 mph shifting to the southwest
around 9 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (46700 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (4400 knot-ft) late in the
night.
TIME (MDT) 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P
Sky (%).........56 56 56 61 61 61 53 53 53 45 45 45
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC NONENONENONENONENONENONE
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC NONENONENONENONENONENONE
Chc of pcpn (%).30 30 30 40 40 40 10 10 10 10 10 10
Temp............68 67 64 60 58 57 56 55 54 53 52 51
RH..............36 37 41 47 51 51 53 55 59 61 63 66
20 FT wind dir..NW NW NW N N N NW NW NW W W W
20 FT wind spd..5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
20 FT wind gust.15 15 15 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13
Mix hgt (kft)...5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
Transp wind dir.NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW SW SW SW SW
Transp wind spd.9 9 9 9 7 7 7 7 9 9 9 9
Vrate kt-ft/1K..47 47 47 47 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
Ventrate Cat....FR FR FR FR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
.MONDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent) then becoming partly
sunny (55-65 percent). Chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 77.
Min humidity........22 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming northwest around 5 mph in
the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......12100 ft AGL increasing to 12500 ft AGL late in
the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northwest 10 to 12 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (24600 knot-ft) increasing to very good
(120900 knot-ft) in the late morning and
afternoon.
TIME (MDT) MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A
Sky (%).........23 23 23 12 12 12 33 33 33 58 58 58
Weather cov.....NONENONENONENONENONENONECHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........NONENONENONENONENONENONECHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 50 50 50 50 50 50
Temp............51 54 58 63 67 71 74 76 77 76 76 74
RH..............66 61 53 44 36 29 24 22 22 23 24 26
20 FT wind dir..W W W NW NW NW NW NW NW W W W
20 FT wind spd..4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5
20 FT wind gust.12 12 12 12 12 12 14 14 14 14 14 14
Mix hgt (kft)...2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 13
Transp wind dir.W W W W NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
Transp wind spd.11 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 10 10 10 10
Vrate kt-ft/1K..25 25 25 25 126 126 126 126 121 121 121 121
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR VGD VGD VGD VGD VGD VGD VGD VGD
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.TUESDAY...
Partly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the
lower 50s. Highs in the upper 70s. Light winds.
.WEDNESDAY...
Partly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the
upper 40s. Highs in the mid 70s. Light winds.
.THURSDAY...
Partly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows around 50.
Highs in the mid 70s. Light winds.
$$
Forecaster...DENNHARDT
Requested by...Dave Isackson
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2519568.1/EPZ
.DELDT 08/09/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL david_isackson@firenet.gov