016
FXUS64 KEPZ 220357
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
957 PM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1000 PM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

 - Deep Monsoon moisture beginning to shift west and north, with
   slightly drier air working in from the east. Focus of storms
   will be more over the higher mountains and northern and western
   lowlands.

 - With high pressure building over, drier and warmer weather is
   expected for the rest of the week. Storms will be mostly
   limited to to western New Mexico and the high elevations.

 - Lowland temperatures will begin reaching triple digits Friday
   into next weekend, and through much of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1000 PM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

After an extended duration of deep monsoon moisture over the
Borderland, we are moving into a transition toward a drier regime
as high pressure noses in from the east, shoving the deeper
moisture W and N, and bringing in drier air from the NE and E. As
early as tomorrow, we should see a downward trend in the coverage
of showers and storms across the region, with a focus of further
storm activity over area high mountains and the N and W lowlands
across Southern New Mexico. PWAT has been near 1.5", and it is
proged to drop to near 1.0", and dewpoints in the 60s are supposed
to fall into the 40s. Both of those lower numbers are still
respectible enough to allow for a pop-up storm anywhere across the
CWFA, but the chances will drop for the southern and eastern areas
of the forecast area. It will further drop Thursday and Friday as
the upper high continues to expand west over the region, with
subsident warming aloft, adding a cap, suppressing instability.
Along with this "drying trend" will be an associated warming
trend, with lowland temperatures reaching toward the triple digits
as early as Thursday.

Late weekend the upper high, if the GFS is correct, jogs to the
north, which could allow a return of more moisture back into the
region. However, the high doesn`t move as far north as it did a
couple weeks ago, to start this wet period, so it looks like the
moisture reintroduction will be somewhat limited, and still
focused over SW and W NE, with areas to the east somewhat dry
still. The ECMWF model still shows a upper high controlling the
conditions over the region into next week, keeping the forecast
warmer and drier.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1000 PM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

VFR conditions expected, with brief and isolated MFVR in VCTY of
SHRA and TSRA through 06-09Z. Skies generally SCT050-100 and
SCT-BKN150-180. Tempo and ISOL BKN070 OVC100 near showers and
storms. Winds generally 4-8kt from SE to SW, but trending to W and
NW aft 06Z. Winds will switch back to SE and S tomorrow morning
aft 16-17Z in the 4-8kt range. Again tomorrow, ISO to SCT
SHRA/TSRA is expected, but with lesser coverage across the
lowlands around the terminals. Confidence for direct impacts at
TAF sites is low.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1112 AM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

After today, we will see a gradual warming and drying trend as
afternoon highs increase and minimum RH values decrease. By
Friday, much of the lowlands will be near or just below critical
humidity thresholds, with some modest improvement expected by
early next week though highs will remain well above normal. Winds
through the period will remain light. With the moisture, we will
maintain daily thunderstorm chances, but after today, chances will
decrease sharply and mainly be held to mountains. Vent rates will
mainly be good for most locations.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  73  96  76 100 /  30  10  10   0
Sierra Blanca            65  92  66  94 /  10  10   0   0
Las Cruces               66  93  69  97 /  20  10  10   0
Alamogordo               69  94  72  98 /  20  20  10   0
Cloudcroft               51  71  52  75 /  20  50  10  10
Truth or Consequences    70  92  72  97 /  20  10  10   0
Silver City              60  84  64  88 /  40  30  10   0
Deming                   65  95  69  98 /  30  10   0   0
Lordsburg                65  90  69  95 /  40  10  10   0
West El Paso Metro       73  94  76  99 /  30  10  10   0
Dell City                70  97  71  99 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             73  98  74 100 /  20  10   0   0
Loma Linda               66  88  68  91 /  20  10   0   0
Fabens                   71  96  73  99 /  30  10   0   0
Santa Teresa             69  93  72  97 /  20  10  10   0
White Sands HQ           73  94  76  98 /  30  10  10   0
Jornada Range            68  93  72  97 /  20  10  10   0
Hatch                    68  96  71 100 /  20  10  10   0
Columbus                 70  94  73  98 /  20   0   0   0
Orogrande                68  93  70  97 /  20  10  10   0
Mayhill                  56  82  57  86 /  10  30  10  10
Mescalero                55  81  56  86 /  20  50  20  10
Timberon                 54  80  56  83 /  10  10  10   0
Winston                  58  83  60  87 /  30  50  10  10
Hillsboro                64  90  67  94 /  30  20  10   0
Spaceport                66  93  69  97 /  20  10  10   0
Lake Roberts             56  85  59  90 /  40  40  10   0
Hurley                   61  88  64  92 /  40  20  10   0
Cliff                    63  90  65  95 /  50  40  10   0
Mule Creek               61  85  63  91 /  70  30  10   0
Faywood                  63  87  66  91 /  40  20  10   0
Animas                   65  90  68  94 /  40  10  20   0
Hachita                  63  90  67  94 /  30   0  10   0
Antelope Wells           64  89  68  94 /  40  10  20   0
Cloverdale               62  85  65  89 /  50  20  30   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Flood Watch Wednesday afternoon for East Slopes Sacramento
     Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500
     Feet-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...14-Bird