Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
146 FXUS64 KEPZ 172334 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 534 PM MDT Sun Aug 17 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 533 PM MDT Sun Aug 17 2025 - Deeper monsoonal moisture on southerly winds will persist through Monday, with abundant cloud coverage and chances for thunderstorms. - Moisture will diminish around midweek to near normal, allowing for more isolated storm coverage. Even drier air expected late in the week, with storms limited mostly to the mountains. - Temperatures remaining near normal through the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1050 AM MDT Sun Aug 17 2025 The area remains within deep southerly flow this morning thanks to an UL trough along the west coast and a large, sprawling high covering much of the eastern CONUS. Similar to yesterday, satellite shows a decaying MCV over the CWA, which will act to limit instability. The biggest difference from yesterday, however, are more breaks within the cloud, much of which have appeared over the last hour as the MCV decays. Today`s storm risk is a bit conditional to how much clearing and subsequent warming we can get the rest of this morning into the afternoon as we have sufficient moisture (1" across the Gila to about 1.4" toward Hudspeth Co) in place, but subtle height rises with building high pressure will also limit instability. Looking at the HREF and HRRR, we will see a high chance over the Sacramento Mountains (60-80%) with 30-40% chances elsewhere. Southerly flow continues for Monday, but the UL high will have repositioned itself to just east of the Four Corners by evening. This pattern is not the most favorable thermodynamical pattern, but moisture levels will remain high enough to support at least scattered coverage of thunderstorms. We see storm coverage begin to decrease beginning Tuesday though with warming aloft thanks to the strengthening high near the Four Corners. Moisture remains around 1.2-1.4", so still decent storm chances/coverage but should be less than Monday. The high strengthens further for Wednesday, but PW values will drop to near an inch. Coverage will be greatly reduced as a result with most of us staying dry. By Thursday, lasting into the weekend, the atmosphere will be too dry for storms with air coming from the Central Plains. Pretty much only the Gila will have a low chance to see any precipitation. Highs will climb as well though the NBM keeps them near seasonal values. I would not be surprised, given the pattern, if highs run about 3 degrees higher than presently forecast (operational NBM). The one thing that will help limit our warming though is compressional warming from the high will be offset by weak CAA as our air mass comes from the cooler Central Plains. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 533 PM MDT Sun Aug 17 2025 Generally VFR conditions with SCT-BKN080 BKN250 with isolated BKN060CB -TSRA til around 06Z. Variable winds 7-10 knots except gusts to 35 knots near storms. Developing after 18Z...isolated thunderstorms mainly over the mountains, then spreading to the lowlands after 21Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1050 AM MDT Sun Aug 17 2025 With monsoonal moisture remaining in place, fire concerns will continue to be minimal to nil. Mornings will feature good to excellent recoveries while afternoon minimums drop into the mid to upper 20s in the lowlands. Some drying is forecast mid to late week with a decrease in dew points and an increase in afternoon highs, but min RH values are forecast to stay near 20%. Winds will also be light for the period. The moisture will foster thunderstorm chances through Wednesday. By Thursday, storm chances will largely be limited to the Gila Wilderness. Venting will range poor to fair, improving to fair to good by mid-week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 75 96 75 95 / 40 40 40 30 Sierra Blanca 66 89 66 89 / 30 60 40 60 Las Cruces 68 91 68 92 / 40 40 50 30 Alamogordo 69 92 69 91 / 30 40 30 40 Cloudcroft 50 68 50 69 / 30 80 30 70 Truth or Consequences 69 92 69 92 / 10 40 30 30 Silver City 62 87 63 87 / 30 60 50 70 Deming 69 95 70 96 / 30 40 50 40 Lordsburg 68 94 69 95 / 40 50 50 60 West El Paso Metro 73 93 73 93 / 40 40 40 30 Dell City 70 93 70 93 / 30 40 20 30 Fort Hancock 72 95 73 95 / 30 60 40 60 Loma Linda 68 87 68 87 / 30 50 30 50 Fabens 72 94 73 94 / 40 40 30 40 Santa Teresa 70 92 71 92 / 40 30 50 30 White Sands HQ 72 94 73 93 / 30 50 50 50 Jornada Range 68 92 69 92 / 30 50 50 50 Hatch 68 95 69 95 / 30 50 50 40 Columbus 70 95 71 95 / 40 30 50 30 Orogrande 68 90 69 90 / 30 40 30 40 Mayhill 56 80 57 80 / 40 80 30 70 Mescalero 55 80 55 81 / 30 80 30 70 Timberon 55 77 55 78 / 30 60 30 60 Winston 57 85 57 86 / 20 60 40 60 Hillsboro 63 92 65 92 / 20 50 50 60 Spaceport 66 92 68 92 / 20 40 40 40 Lake Roberts 57 87 57 87 / 30 70 50 80 Hurley 63 89 64 89 / 30 60 50 70 Cliff 65 94 66 94 / 20 60 40 70 Mule Creek 63 90 63 91 / 10 40 30 70 Faywood 64 88 65 89 / 30 60 50 70 Animas 68 94 68 94 / 40 50 60 60 Hachita 67 92 68 92 / 40 50 50 50 Antelope Wells 65 92 66 91 / 50 50 60 50 Cloverdale 63 87 64 87 / 40 60 60 70 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...17-Hefner