001
FXUS64 KEPZ 111022
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
422 AM MDT Tue Mar 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 339 AM MDT Tue Mar 11 2025

 - Series of Pacific storms will bring strong winds and a chance
   of showers to the area on Tuesday and Thursday/Friday.

 - Blowing dust/poor visibility will once again be the biggest
   impact on both Tuesday and Thursday afternoon.

 - Fire weather will be a concern for much of the area through
   Friday.

- Mountain snow and lowland rainfall on Wednesday and again on
  Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 144 AM MDT Tue Mar 11 2025

An active weather pattern is shaping up through most of the
forecast period. A series of Pacific storm systems will bring
periods of breezy to windy to at times very windy conditions to
the Borderland. An analysis of satellite this morning shows a
 closed upper low pressure system off the southern California
coast. Both the deterministic GFS/ECMWF show the closed upper low
coming onshore in southern California or the far northern Baja
peninsula late tonight into early Wednesday and retrograding into
an open trough. The trough will quickly move eastward across
central Arizona today and then across central New Mexico on
Wednesday bringing a modest increase in west to southwest flow on
Wednesday across the area. There is some modest moisture
associated with this storm system that will bring some mountain
snowfall Wednesday morning with around an inch of snow fall or
less with showers in the lowland areas.

Attention turns to the next system on Thursday, as the next
trough moves onshore late Wednesday night along the US west
coast. The trough will move into the Sierra Nevada region by
Thursday afternoon, allowing southwest flow over the area to
quickly strengthen bringing windy to very conditions and areas of
blowing dust to the area Thursday afternoon with the likelihood of
seeing some Dust Storm Warnings as the lee side low strengthens
over eastern Colorado on Thursday. Models then bring the trough
across central New Mexico Thursday night into Friday bringing
chances for snowfall in the mountains with the NBM mean favoring
around 2 to 4 inches in the Gila/Black range with showers in the
lowlands with precip amounts in the tenth to two tenths range.


A shortwave within northwest flow will dive southeast toward the
area from northern California on Friday night. The shortwave will
bring some moisture and dynamics mainly to the northern half of
the area bring chances for rain/snow to area on Saturday. For
Sunday, the shortwave will push eastward into central Texas on
Texas as the parent trough pushes into the southern Plains with
breezy conditions mainly east of the Rio Grande on Sunday as an
upper ridge builds into the Borderland. For Monday, the upper
ridge will slide eastward as yet another Pacific storm system
makes landfall along the US west coast Monday with south to
southwest flow again strengthening over the Borderland with breezy
conditions and some areas of blowing dust on Monday afternoon.

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1125 PM MDT Mon Mar 10 2025

Light winds AOB 6kts expected through mid-morning. Winds increase
for the afternoon from the southwest ahead of a storm system,
gusting to 25-30kts with patchy BLDU. VIS reductions to as low as
2 miles are possible in the afternoon, but not confident enough
to insert into TAFs for this cycle. BLDU is most likely for KDMN
and KLRU due to stronger winds upstream of those terminals. Other
than persistent gustiness at KELP Tuesday evening, winds subside
to about 10kts after sunset. Mainly SKC prevail through the
period with FEW-SCT250 moving in Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 339 AM MDT Tue Mar 11 2025

Mianly VFR conditions through the forecast period. Skies will be
clear through most of the forecast period with south to southwest
winds becoming breezy around 18z at all terminals. Some areas of
blowing dust are not out of the question this afternoon, which may
briefly lead to periods of lower visibilities at times, particularly
in areas west of the Divide.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 144 AM MDT Tue Mar 11 2025

Critical fire weather conditions will persist across the area
today. The combination of gusty winds and low humidity values will
lead to dangerous fire conditions across a good portion of the
Borderland. A Red Flag Warning is effect today from noon to 8pm
across much of the lowlands west of the Rio Grande and up to the
Sacramento Mountains. Min RH values will be in the single digits
through most of the area with lower teen values in the mountain
areas. Min RH values for Wednesday modestly rebounding into the
lower 20s in the lowlands and lower 30s in the mountains. For
Thursday, Min RH values will be in the teens with higher values in
the mountains, but windy to very windy conditions will lead to
elevated  to near critical fire weather conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  76  46  68  44 /   0   0  20   0
Sierra Blanca            72  40  64  38 /   0   0  10   0
Las Cruces               72  38  65  37 /   0  10  20   0
Alamogordo               72  39  67  39 /   0  10  20   0
Cloudcroft               49  26  43  30 /   0  10  30   0
Truth or Consequences    72  39  68  39 /   0  10  10   0
Silver City              63  33  56  35 /   0  40  30   0
Deming                   73  38  66  36 /   0  20  20   0
Lordsburg                71  35  64  34 /   0  60  30   0
West El Paso Metro       74  46  67  45 /   0  10  20   0
Dell City                74  38  68  36 /   0   0  20   0
Fort Hancock             78  39  70  38 /   0   0  10   0
Loma Linda               67  41  60  41 /   0   0  30   0
Fabens                   76  42  69  39 /   0   0  20   0
Santa Teresa             73  41  66  39 /   0  10  20   0
White Sands HQ           73  46  66  45 /   0  10  30   0
Jornada Range            71  39  67  37 /   0  10  20   0
Hatch                    74  41  69  37 /   0  10  10   0
Columbus                 75  41  67  39 /   0  30  20   0
Orogrande                71  40  66  39 /   0  10  30   0
Mayhill                  63  33  56  36 /   0   0  30   0
Mescalero                60  31  56  33 /   0   0  30   0
Timberon                 59  27  54  31 /   0   0  30   0
Winston                  63  26  60  26 /   0  10  10   0
Hillsboro                70  36  65  35 /   0  10  20   0
Spaceport                71  36  68  34 /   0  10  10   0
Lake Roberts             62  30  56  32 /   0  30  40   0
Hurley                   66  31  59  32 /   0  30  20   0
Cliff                    69  29  63  29 /   0  50  40   0
Mule Creek               64  32  57  33 /   0  60  50   0
Faywood                  66  35  59  36 /   0  20  20   0
Animas                   71  36  67  36 /   0  70  20   0
Hachita                  71  36  66  35 /   0  50  30   0
Antelope Wells           71  37  66  36 /   0  60  30   0
Cloverdale               64  37  60  39 /   0  70  20   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for Texas Fire Weather Zone 056 Hudspeth County.

NM...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for
     Capitan and Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ- South
     Central Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ-
     Southwest Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...41-Kelly