221
FXUS64 KEPZ 281127
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
527 AM MDT Sat Jun 28 2025

...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 -  Daily thunderstorms become more isolated this weekend. As
    usual, the best chances for storms will be over area
    mountains.

-   Storms will be capable of heavy rain and flooding, especially
    in the Sacramento Mountains, and near recent burn scars.

-   Better rain chances expected for the middle of next week as
    temperatures stay near or below normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 952 PM MDT Fri Jun 27 2025

A few showers and storms are lingering late this evening west of
Las Cruces with pockets of heavy rain. This activity is expected
to dissipate by midnight as the atmosphere continues to
stabilize. For this weekend, weak ridging builds over the Four
Corners region, allowing moisture levels to drop to near normal
for late June. PWs fall to about 1" or just below on Saturday,
staying relatively low through Sunday compared to where we were
earlier this week. The best moisture remains over eastern areas as
the plume shifts more to the south and east. Scattered storms
develop in the mountains each afternoon through Sunday, shooting
off outflow boundaries into the lowlands by the evening and
initiating isolated activity. The flash flood threat is low due to
the lower PWs, but the slow storm motion and possible training of
storms could give spots heavy rainfall (1-2") - most likely in
the Sacs, including recent burn scars.

The upper high shifts north on Monday, allowing for a better
fetch of moisture from the east to develop. Rain/storm chances
increase for Monday areawide as PWs begin to climb again. The high
is nudged to the east by an upper low off the CA coast by the
middle of the week with an even better moisture tap forming from
the south and southeast.

Tue-Thu look like a pretty active period in terms of thunderstorm
coverage. There is a low-medium threat of flash flooding around
the middle of the week due to PWs reaching near record levels
again. Global ensembles generally show PWs at 1.3-1.6" next week
for KELP with the Euro and its AI ensemble all in on record
moisture. The GFS ensemble is more mixed. For the last event, the
Euro got on board much sooner than the GFS, so I`m inclined to
lean towards the wetter solution. I would expect to see scattered
to numerous showers and storms each day from Tue-Thu with the
potential for heavy rainfall and flash flooding, especially on
recent burn scars. After Thursday, moisture levels begin to
decrease along with storm chances.

Temperatures will be near normal this weekend with the upper high
close by and lower storm chances forecast. Temps drop to
seasonably cool levels as we head into the middle of next week due
to better rain chances and more cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 505 AM MDT Sat Jun 28 2025

VFR conditions through the period with skies SCT-BKN at 15-20kft.
Skies will become FEW-SCT at 15 kft with afternoon CU development.
Isolated TS/SH will be possible across the desert lowlands during
the afternoon and evening. However, confidence is low in direct
impact to terminals so no mention in TAF right now. Winds light at
3-7 knots and VRB through the morning, becoming SE/S this
afternoon at 6-11 knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 505 AM MDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Drier air will begin to infiltrate the region today, bringing a
return of near-elevated to elevated fire weather conditions across
portions of the forecast area on Saturday and Sunday. The area of
focus for these conditions will be for areas along and west of the
Continental Divide where afternoon Min RH values will drop to or
slightly below 15 percent today and Sunday. Areas east of the
Continental Divide will see RH values above critical thresholds both
afternoons. That said, winds this weekend and through the majority
of the period will be generally light at 5-15 mph. High temperatures
will increase back around the seasonal average for the end of June.

Given the recent monsoonal moisture and several days of shower/storm
activity across the region, dead fuel moisture values have increased
substantially from what they were at a few weeks ago with ERC values
dropping well below the 90th percentile. This coupled with increased
live fuel moisture within the PJ, oak, foothill shrub, large timber,
etc. fire spread components and significant wildland fire
potential is low.

Afternoon/evening showers and storms will once again be possible
both Saturday and Sunday. However, the chance and coverage will be
far less than what we`ve seen the past several, albeit still
possible. The focus for both today and Sunday will be for areas
along and east of the RGV where sufficient moisture still resides,
with lesser chances (10-20%) to the west. For areas over the high
terrain of the Sacramento Mtns, slow and erratic storm motions will
increase the risk for burn scar flash flooding over the Sacramento
Complex burn scars.

The short term reduction in monsoonal moisture will be short-lived
as the monsoonal plume repositions itself over the Borderland Region
early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  95  74  98  73 /  10  10  10  10
Sierra Blanca            86  66  91  65 /  30  20  40  20
Las Cruces               93  67  95  67 /  10  10  10  10
Alamogordo               93  69  96  67 /  30  10  20  10
Cloudcroft               71  51  74  51 /  50  10  40  10
Truth or Consequences    95  69  97  70 /  10  10  10  10
Silver City              90  64  92  64 /  20  10  20  10
Deming                   96  67  99  68 /  10  10  10  10
Lordsburg                96  67  99  68 /  10  10  10  10
West El Paso Metro       93  75  96  73 /  10  10  10  10
Dell City                91  68  94  68 /  20  10  20  10
Fort Hancock             93  72  97  72 /  30  10  30  20
Loma Linda               85  67  89  67 /  10  10  20  10
Fabens                   93  71  97  70 /  10  10  20  10
Santa Teresa             92  71  95  70 /  10  10  10  20
White Sands HQ           93  74  96  72 /  10  10  20  10
Jornada Range            93  67  95  67 /  10  10  10  10
Hatch                    96  67  99  67 /  10  10  10  10
Columbus                 96  71  98  70 /  10  10  10  10
Orogrande                91  68  94  67 /  20  10  20  10
Mayhill                  81  56  84  55 /  50  10  50  10
Mescalero                82  56  84  55 /  40  10  30  10
Timberon                 77  54  81  54 /  40  10  40  10
Winston                  88  56  89  56 /  20  10  20  10
Hillsboro                93  64  96  65 /  20  10  20  10
Spaceport                93  65  95  65 /  10  10  10  10
Lake Roberts             92  58  93  59 /  20  10  30  10
Hurley                   92  63  94  63 /  20  10  20  10
Cliff                    98  64 100  65 /  10  10  20  10
Mule Creek               94  61  97  63 /  10  10  10  10
Faywood                  90  66  93  65 /  20  10  20  10
Animas                   96  68  99  67 /  10  10  10  20
Hachita                  94  66  97  66 /  10  10  10  20
Antelope Wells           93  67  97  67 /  10  10  20  20
Cloverdale               91  66  93  67 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...38-Rogers