Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
429 FXUS64 KEPZ 140428 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1028 PM MDT Wed Aug 13 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 836 PM MDT Wed Aug 13 2025 - Continue Thursday, with drier conditions east of the Rio Grande and better chances for rain in area mountains and west of the Rio Grande. - Deep monsoon moisture returns Friday and Saturday, with increased rain and storm chances, and an elevated threat for localized flash flooding. - High temperatures in the lowlands stay in the mid to upper 90s through the work week into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1027 PM MDT Wed Aug 13 2025 WV imagery and models showing mid-level high center forming around the Four Corners, while at upper levels the high pressure ridge persists over New Mexico and Colorado. Some slightly drier air at advected in at mid-levels, and along with warming at 500mb, allowed mostly isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening, which for the most part, have already ended as of press time. Models in close agreement, moving upper high over TX/OK Panhandles Thursday afternoon. PWs increase slightly but both GFS/NAM12 show slight warming at 500mb. Likely will see just a very slight increase in number of thunderstorms, with best chances being the mountains and west of Las Cruces. Friday through Sunday...looks like a ramping up of thunderstorm activity. All GFS/ECMWF/NAM12 quite similar, moving upper high over Missouri Friday/Saturday, expanding some southward Sunday over Arkansas/Louisiana/Texas. Further west, a nearly stationary upper trough over California/Nevada with several impulses within it, will channel southerly flow between the high and trough. This will advect in sub-tropical moisture. GFS/NAM increasing PWs to 1.2-1.5 inches later Friday, and only slightly decreasing by Sunday. Thus, expect scattered/numerous thunderstorms with local flooding possible. In addition Friday looks like best day for strong/severe storm potential, as models show moderate backing flow (shear) and likely some upper energy out of the western trough. The other days don`t exhibit much low level shear. Monday through Wednesday...expect thunderstorm activity to trend down again. Upper high weakens and reforms by Tue/Wed near the Four Corners. While this likely forces the main sub-tropical moisture plume to our west, re-cycled moisture will remain around the high center--and perhaps with some additional mid-latitude moisture by Wednesday. Because of this, thunderstorm coverage and flood potential will decrease some but not disappear. Monday could still be a fairly active day but then Tue/Wed should be more isolated. All in all, after Thursday, our area should receive more beneficial rain, though at the possible expense of flooding. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1027 PM MDT Wed Aug 13 2025 VFR conditions expected through the period. SCT100 SCT-BKN250; with a slight chance of BKN070 -SHRA west of Deming until 08Z. Forming after 18Z over the mountains...isolated BKN060CB -TSRA, spreading to the lowlands after 21Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1235 PM MDT Wed Aug 13 2025 High pressure aloft is shifting east, and moving across the region today and tomorrow. This evolving flow pattern will pulling some drier air from the NE, and push the better moisture to the SW, across our region. This means a downtick in rain and storms over the SACs, and surrounding lowlands, as well as Far West Texas, and the central NM lowlands and deserts. However, we do expect the focus of storm to be over the Bootheel and Gila, basically over areas west of a Deming to TorC line. Still some chance of isolated storms over our central areas, but scattered to the west. This same pattern will repeat again tomorrow. For those drier areas, east and central, this will mean warmer temperatures, and lower RH, but nothing extreme, just trending warmer and drier, but with very little wind to push any fire. Friday and Saturday, the upper high will be to our east. Our area will come under a deep southerly flow that will re-initiate a good monsoonal pattern, with deep moisture moving back in over the entire forecast area. We will expect more clouds, cooler temperatures, elevated RH, and scattered to numerous showers and storms across all fire zones. Flash flooding potential will also be somewhat increased during this time. Starting Sunday, and continuing into next week, the upper high is forecasted to shift back west, but position well to our north. This means we will likely keep most of our moisture in place of the region, and the high will be weak enough over our region, that it will do little to inhibit further storm development. Thus next week, looks a bit drier, with some minor loss in rain and storm coverage, but we think we will continue with daily rain and storms across the region, with temperatures near normal, RH staying above critical values, good recoveries at night, and mostly light winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 75 100 76 96 / 10 10 20 20 Sierra Blanca 67 93 69 92 / 10 20 10 40 Las Cruces 69 95 69 92 / 10 10 20 20 Alamogordo 69 96 70 94 / 10 10 10 20 Cloudcroft 52 73 52 71 / 10 20 10 50 Truth or Consequences 69 96 70 92 / 10 20 10 40 Silver City 63 89 62 85 / 20 60 40 80 Deming 68 98 70 94 / 10 20 30 40 Lordsburg 67 95 67 90 / 30 50 50 60 West El Paso Metro 74 96 75 93 / 10 10 20 20 Dell City 68 97 71 96 / 10 10 10 20 Fort Hancock 72 97 74 95 / 10 20 20 40 Loma Linda 67 90 69 87 / 10 10 10 30 Fabens 71 96 73 94 / 10 10 10 20 Santa Teresa 71 95 72 92 / 10 10 20 20 White Sands HQ 74 97 75 94 / 10 10 20 30 Jornada Range 68 96 69 92 / 10 10 20 30 Hatch 68 98 69 94 / 10 20 20 40 Columbus 70 97 72 92 / 20 20 30 30 Orogrande 69 95 71 92 / 10 10 10 20 Mayhill 57 84 57 83 / 0 20 10 50 Mescalero 56 84 57 83 / 10 20 10 50 Timberon 55 82 56 80 / 10 20 10 40 Winston 57 88 57 84 / 10 40 20 70 Hillsboro 64 95 64 92 / 10 30 30 50 Spaceport 66 96 67 92 / 10 10 20 30 Lake Roberts 57 88 57 85 / 20 70 40 90 Hurley 63 91 63 87 / 20 50 30 70 Cliff 64 96 64 92 / 30 60 40 80 Mule Creek 62 91 62 87 / 30 60 40 80 Faywood 65 91 64 87 / 20 40 30 60 Animas 67 94 67 89 / 40 50 60 70 Hachita 66 94 66 89 / 30 40 40 60 Antelope Wells 65 92 65 88 / 40 40 60 60 Cloverdale 64 87 62 82 / 40 60 60 80 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...17-Hefner