807
FXUS64 KEPZ 021719
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1119 AM MDT Sat Aug 2 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1115 AM MDT Sat Aug 2 2025

-  Isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening,
   favoring area mountains. Storms will be capable of heavy
   rainfall and gusty winds.

-  Hotter and much drier next week as high pressure aloft cuts off
   the flow of monsoon moisture and suppresses thunderstorm
   development.

-  Lowland high temperatures will reach triple digits each
   afternoon through next week. A Heat Advisory for the lower Rio
   Grande Valley is in effect for Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1115 AM MDT Sat Aug 2 2025

June returns in August as we transition for a busy monsoon season
pattern to one with a building high over the southern Rockies.
Still enough residual moisture around at the low levels to get
storms to fire over the higher terrain this afternoon and push E
to SE. Overnight and into Sunday, storms will quickly die off and
the much deeper dry air will be pushing in from the NW as ridge
builds through the Four Corners. The drier air will allow
temperatures to start warming up to well above average. Expect
most lowland areas to be right near 100 degrees for Sunday.

Going into the work week, a 600+dam high will be settling in
right over southern NM. Very good agreement among models and
ensembles with this setup so high confidence temperatures will
continue to warm for Mon/Tue with little to no precipitation. The
El Paso area and along the lower RGV will see temperatures warm
into the 104-107 range starting Monday and continuing at least
into Tue. The NBM temps did seem a couple degrees too cool in the
hottest areas and raised them up. With the higher than average
confidence in this scenario, have decided to go with a Heat
Advisory for these areas. There may be a very small cool down
going into Wed/Thu that drops highs just below advisory criteria,
but we will see how hot it does get early in the week and there is
a chance the advisory will need to be extended.

Some moisture eventually gets wrapped around the high and will
bring a return to at least mountain thunderstorms by Fri and
spreading onto the lowlands with outflows going into the weekend.
Looks like the 100s could break with this moisture intrusion by
Sat.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1115 AM MDT Sat Aug 2 2025

P6SM FEW-SCT090-110 SCT-BKN150-200 through the evening then skies
gradually clearing by sunrise. Isolated to widely scattered 3-5SM
-TSRA will develop between 18Z-20Z over the mountains and push
east to southeast into the early evening. Only terminal with a
chance of seeing a storm will be KTCS around 00Z but confidence
not high enough to include even a PROB30, although there will
likely be some outflows over 20KTS moving through there. In
general, winds will be AOB 12KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1115 AM MDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Hot and dry conditions will be returning to the entire area for
the next 4-5 days with just some isolated storms this afternoon.
High temperatures will be warming into the 100-107 range for the
lowlands with the mountains in the 80s and 90s. RH`s will be
plummeting into the 5-15% range by Monday and continue through at
least midweek. Winds will be light through the period and remain
under 15 mph. Some moisture is expected to move around the
developing upper ridge by late in the week with some isolated
storms possible.


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  76 103  77 106 /  10   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            70  97  72  99 /  10  10  10  10
Las Cruces               70 100  69 102 /  10   0   0   0
Alamogordo               69  98  70  99 /  10   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               55  75  54  77 /  10  10   0  10
Truth or Consequences    68 100  69 101 /  20   0   0   0
Silver City              64  92  66  96 /  20   0   0   0
Deming                   67 102  66 102 /  10   0   0   0
Lordsburg                69  99  66 100 /  10   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       75  99  74 103 /  10   0   0   0
Dell City                70 100  70 104 /  10  10  10   0
Fort Hancock             74 103  75 105 /  10  10  10   0
Loma Linda               69  93  70  95 /  10   0   0   0
Fabens                   73 103  73 105 /  10   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             72  98  72 103 /  10   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           73  99  74 102 /  10   0   0   0
Jornada Range            68 100  67 102 /  10   0   0   0
Hatch                    70 102  67 101 /  10   0   0   0
Columbus                 72 102  71 101 /  10   0   0   0
Orogrande                70  96  69  98 /  10   0   0   0
Mayhill                  60  86  59  87 /  10  10   0  10
Mescalero                58  87  58  88 /  10  10   0  10
Timberon                 56  84  56  85 /  10  10   0  10
Winston                  57  90  56  93 /  30   0   0   0
Hillsboro                64  99  66  97 /  20   0   0   0
Spaceport                67 101  67  98 /  20   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             51  92  51  94 /  20   0   0   0
Hurley                   64  95  63  99 /  10   0   0   0
Cliff                    56  99  55 100 /  10   0   0   0
Mule Creek               55  95  54  96 /  10   0   0   0
Faywood                  65  94  65  98 /  20   0   0   0
Animas                   70  99  66 100 /  10   0   0   0
Hachita                  68  98  66  98 /  10   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           68  98  66  98 /  20  10  10   0
Cloverdale               65  93  65  94 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon Monday to 9 PM MDT Tuesday for
     Eastern/Central El Paso County-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern
     El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of
     Eastern Hudspeth County-Western El Paso County.

NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...26-Grzywacz