Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
481
FXUS64 KEPZ 200001
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
501 PM MST Thu Feb 19 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 451 PM MST Thu Feb 19 2026
- Windy conditions again Friday, with a risk of blowing dust
across southern New Mexico and far west Texas. This may cause
impactful travel conditions by reducing visibility on area
roadways.
- Lighter winds with seasonal temperatures for the weekend,
followed by a warm-up next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1100 AM MST Thu Feb 19 2026
The Borderland remains in the base of a broad Western U.S. trough,
with shortwave impulses passing through, to our north. This
pattern will keep pressure gradients tight across our region, with
surface troughing to our east to support strong low level winds. A
well-timed shortwave disturbance will pass just to our north
tomorrow, and be responsible for another day of stronger winds.
Lowlands should see afternoon wind speeds in the 20-30 mph range
with gusts 40-45 mph. Area mountains will see winds in the 35 to
35 mph range with gusts 55+ mph. We have issued a Wind Advisory
for the Sacramento mountains, and east slopes. To the west, there
will be a minor slug of moisture moving across the high country of
the Gila Region, with slight chances for some rain/snow, with snow
levels lowering to 5500 ft through the day. However, rain/snow
amounts look to be light, with brief spotty precipitation
expected.
For Saturday, we see a surface front drop in from the north, with
high pressure aloft beginning to build in from the west. The
storm track will lift north and shift east, allowing a break in
winds for the weekend and most of next week. The front doesn`t
drop temperatures, but it does keep temperatures static, with
highs for the next couple of days right at the seasonal daily
normals. Deep west and northwest flow will keep the region dry,
with few clouds expected.
Next week will be characterized by a broad ridge of high pressure
parked directly over SCAL-AZ-NM. This will mean generally light
winds with relaxed pressure gradients. The storm track and
associated moisture will be well to our north. Conditions will be
dry with plenty of sunshine. Of note will be a warmup, with daily
high temperatures well into the 70s across the lowland, with
highs nearing 80.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 451 PM MST Thu Feb 19 2026
VFR conditions to persist through the overnight and morning hours.
West winds will continue to be breezy to windy the next few hours
but will decrease to 5-15KT overnight. LLWS expected at KDMN and
KTCS during the overnight hours. LLWS possible at KELP and KLRU.
Another windy day expected tomorrow afternoon with max winds out
of the west at 30G40KT by early to mid afternoon at all terminals.
BLDU is possible at KDMN, KLRU, and KELP tomorrow afternoon but
uncertain how dense it will become.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1100 AM MST Thu Feb 19 2026
The region remains within base of broad troughing with a tight
gradient, keeping winds elevated across the region. However, after
yesterday`s dry conditions, we have seen some gains in moisture,
and a slight reduction in winds, to lower fire weather concerns.
Tomorrow another well-timed shortwave disturbance will track
across northern NM, and give the region another day of stronger
winds. The Gila region may see some light and spotty
precipitation, but the rest of the region will remain dry. Again,
RH will be up a bit, and struggle to drop into the teens across
most of the region, with only some eastern and northern areas
seeing some upper teens MinRH tomorrow afternoon. Plus, ERC charts
show that fuels are at or below the daily average, which is quite
depressed relative to "fire season" highs. Thus the fire danger
isn`t quite there to warrant any Fire Weather Watches or Red Flag
Warnings, despite the wind.
After Friday, though the weekend, the pattern becomes zonal, with
a building ridge. We will see lighter winds and steady
temperatures at near seasonal normals. Conditions will be drier,
with MinRh back down in the critical low and middle teens, and
only fair recoveries, but the lack of strong winds will keep fire
weather concerns lower.
For nearly all of next week, we remain under that building ridge,
as it anchors over the SW, and slowly retrogrades west to SCAL.
This will mean an extended period of warm and dry conditions, with
generally light winds. Fuels will trend drier, but weather
conditions will fall well short of elevated or critical levels.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 43 66 38 64 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 39 66 35 62 / 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 35 59 31 61 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 36 60 30 62 / 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 24 36 21 42 / 0 0 0 0
Truth or Consequences 37 58 30 58 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 31 48 27 57 / 0 20 0 0
Deming 35 60 30 64 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 33 56 28 63 / 0 10 0 0
West El Paso Metro 43 65 39 63 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 34 66 31 65 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 40 73 37 71 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 39 59 35 60 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 39 70 36 68 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 38 64 33 64 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 42 61 36 62 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada Range 36 60 28 62 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 37 62 28 62 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 40 64 34 64 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 36 61 31 61 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 30 51 25 55 / 0 0 0 0
Mescalero 27 48 22 53 / 0 0 0 0
Timberon 30 46 28 51 / 0 0 0 0
Winston 26 49 18 54 / 0 10 0 0
Hillsboro 36 56 28 59 / 0 0 0 0
Spaceport 33 59 25 61 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 28 46 23 56 / 0 20 0 0
Hurley 30 51 25 57 / 0 10 0 0
Cliff 29 53 24 64 / 10 20 0 0
Mule Creek 29 48 24 60 / 20 40 0 0
Faywood 34 51 29 58 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 38 61 30 64 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 38 60 29 64 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 39 63 31 65 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 36 56 33 63 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM MST Friday for East Slopes
Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Sacramento Mountains
Above 7500 Feet-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500
Feet.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...37-Slusher