203
FXUS64 KEPZ 222009
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
209 PM MDT Thu May 22 2025

...New DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 -  Warm to hot today and Friday, with El Paso/Lower Valley seeing
    their first triple digit temperatures of the year.

 -  Gulf moisture will filter in early in the workweek with a few
    thunderstorms possible, mainly east of the Rio Grande Valley.

 -  Storms will be capable of gusty outflow winds and frequent
    lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 156 PM MDT Thu May 22 2025

As the dryline dances around the eastern CWA border into the
weekend, dry and warm conditions persist. Friday`s highs will be
very close to what they are Thursday with El Paso very likely
(96% chance according to NBM) to reach 100 Friday. Highs will be
5-10 degrees above normal for late May. The upper ridge nudges to
the east tomorrow, allowing for deeper SW flow aloft to develop
downstream of a shortwave. A 995mb low forms in SE Colorado for
the afternoon, inducing a decent pressure gradient and breezy SW
winds (mostly 15-20 mph) across S NM. Other than a few CU forming
in Hudspeth county into this evening and again tomorrow afternoon,
mainly clear skies are forecast.

The shortwave trough pushes into the Four Corners region this
weekend, keeping our winds somewhat breezy from the W-SW. The
dryline will struggle to impinge on our CWA from the east this
weekend, allowing dry conditions to hold as temps fall closer to
normal.

As the upper trough moves into the Plains, an associated backdoor
front brings a moisture increase Mon/Tues. The best moisture will
be over eastern areas as a new/re-invigorated dryline develops by
midweek. Storm chances spread and increase westward each afternoon
from Monday onward, starting in the Sacs and expanding towards the
Divide by Wednesday. Wed/Thu look like the most active days of the
period with dew points getting into the 50s east of the RGV and
PWs as high as 1". CAPE values over 1000 J/kg are a reasonable bet
(30-50% chance east of RGV both days according to LREF guidance),
so some storms could produce strong winds and large hail. Decent
bulk shear of 20-25kts are modeled as well with upper troughing
progged to our west.

We`re still about 5 days out from this potential event, so
there`s many things to pin down before jumping to specific
impacts. For example, the Euro has been more bullish on the
moisture intrusion than the GFS across the last several runs. All
the ingredients are there for storm development around midweek, as
long as the moisture makes it in from the east. Temperatures will
be near or slightly below normal next week with modest winds.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1128 AM MDT Thu May 22 2025

VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period. Winds become a
bit gusty this afternoon from W-SW, gusting to near 20kts. Winds
subside overnight to AOB 8kts from W-NW. Mainly SKC expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 156 PM MDT Thu May 22 2025

For Friday, fire danger will be elevated due to extremely low
humidity and breezy southwest winds during the afternoon. Northern
areas will see the strongest winds tomorrow (around 15 mph at
20-ft), creating pockets of critical fire weather conditions in
FWZs 110 and 112. Saturday and Sunday will be similar with
slightly lower winds. Very poor overnight recoveries expected into
the weekend. Moisture increases from the east next week due to a
backdoor front/new dryline, resulting in thunderstorm chances
mainly east of the Rio Grande. Dry lightning and gusty outflow
winds will be a concern beginning Mon/Tues. Storm chances expand
further west Wed/Thu with strong winds and large hail possible.
Temperatures will be above normal through Saturday, then near or
below normal.

Min RHs around 5% through the weekend, then increasing to 10-30%
by Tuesday. Vent rates will be excellent through Sunday, then very
good to excellent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  66 101  68  97 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            61  96  60  93 /  10   0  10   0
Las Cruces               59  97  59  92 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               60  97  61  94 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               50  74  50  72 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    61  97  60  93 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              58  86  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   58  98  57  94 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                57  94  56  91 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       68  98  67  93 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                61 100  61  97 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             64 103  63 100 /   0   0  10   0
Loma Linda               64  92  62  89 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   64 101  64  97 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             61  97  62  93 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           69  98  68  94 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            57  97  57  92 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    56  99  57  95 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 64  98  64  95 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                61  96  61  92 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  53  87  54  85 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                53  86  53  83 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 51  84  50  81 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  48  87  47  85 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                58  94  57  90 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                56  96  55  92 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             51  88  49  84 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   55  91  52  87 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    53  93  52  89 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               54  89  52  85 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  59  90  57  87 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   58  95  55  92 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  58  94  57  92 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           59  94  57  90 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               59  88  56  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...39-Aronson