Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
590 FXUS64 KEPZ 231230 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 630 AM MDT Sat Aug 23 2025 ...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 615 AM MDT Sat Aug 23 2025 - Much drier air in place this weekend, with only slight storm chances across the Gila Wilderness. - Rain chances increase significantly Tuesday and Wednesday with some flash flood potential. - Seasonable temperatures through Monday, then cooling below normal. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1026 PM MDT Fri Aug 22 2025 High pressure will be the dominant weather feature across the region this weekend. This will result in a dry airmass over the Borderland, with little to no chance of precipitation. Temperatures will be slightly above normal for this late August. Sunny skies will prevail, along with typical afternoon breezes. A shift in the upper-level pattern is anticipated early next week as the high-pressure system begins to slide toward central TX. This will allow for monsoonal moisture to snake up the Chihuahuan and Sonoran deserts, invigorating the chances for afternoon thunderstorms. Temperatures will remain warm, and while triple digits won`t be widespread, a few localized instances of the century mark may exist in the southern lowlands. The monsoonal flow is expected to be at its peak by midweek, with a wave of moisture moving in from the Baja. PWATs will move from below average over the weekend to around 150 percent of normal during this timeframe. This will significantly increase the chance for showers and thunderstorms, and with such rich moisture, enhance the risk for localized flash flooding. Temperatures will trend slightly downward as increased cloud cover and precipitation chances temper daytime heating. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 615 AM MDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Dry and warm air aloft will keep thunderstorms out of the forecast through the weekend. VFR conditions will prevail, with relatively light ESE to S winds. Some afternoon gusts just under 20 knots will be possible during peak heating. Variable winds or drainage flows will prevail tonight. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 615 AM MDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Dry conditions will continue through the weekend, but temperatures will remain within a couple degrees of seasonal normals, helping to keep Relative Humidity values from dropping into critical ranges despite the lack of precipitation. A stray shower or storm could graze the northern Gila Region by Monday, but precip chances will ramp up Tuesday and through the middle of the week ahead. Both Tuesday and Wednesday will also carry an increase for flood potential, especially over/near burn scars. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 97 73 95 73 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 90 60 89 62 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 93 66 91 66 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 93 66 90 67 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 70 48 68 49 / 10 0 10 0 Truth or Consequences 92 68 90 67 / 10 10 0 10 Silver City 87 62 86 62 / 10 10 10 10 Deming 96 66 94 66 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 95 69 93 67 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 94 71 92 72 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 93 64 92 64 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 95 68 94 69 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 87 64 86 64 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 94 68 92 69 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 93 68 91 69 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 93 70 91 70 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 92 66 91 67 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 95 66 93 67 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 95 68 92 68 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 91 64 90 66 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 80 53 79 54 / 0 0 10 0 Mescalero 82 53 80 54 / 10 0 10 0 Timberon 79 51 78 52 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 86 56 83 57 / 10 10 10 10 Hillsboro 92 63 90 63 / 10 10 0 10 Spaceport 92 65 90 65 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 88 57 86 57 / 20 10 20 10 Hurley 90 62 88 62 / 10 10 0 0 Cliff 95 66 93 64 / 10 10 10 10 Mule Creek 91 63 90 62 / 20 10 10 10 Faywood 89 64 87 64 / 10 0 0 0 Animas 96 66 94 64 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 94 64 91 64 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 94 64 91 63 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 90 64 88 63 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...25-Hardiman