167
FXUS64 KEPZ 052051
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
251 PM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025


.KEY MESSAGES...

 -  Low chance of showers and storms in far eastern areas each
    afternoon through Friday.

 -  Temperatures steadily climb into the weekend, with highs in
    the lower deserts climbing above 100 degrees again, the
    hottest days will be Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1056 AM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Deep SW flow pattern with slowly building high pressure to our
south through the weekend. LL SE wind over our extreme SE areas
has been pushing overnight moisture into OTero and Hudspeth
counties, but that moisture is shallow, and mixing out during the
afternoons. Thus the region remains generally dry, with the
exception of areas well east of the Rio Grande Valley. Those areas
have a slight risk of "general" thunderstorms this aftn/early eve,
while areas east have potential for strong/severe storms (outside
of our area of forecast responsibility). With the SW flow taking
over, that thin sliver of Gulf moisture will be retreating
eastward over the next several days, with virtually NO pcpn/storm
chances over our region through the week. Again, only the furthest
eastern reaches of our area will see any storm chances.

High pressure to the south, will strengthen and build northward
through the weekend. This will add subsident heating to the
region, leading to day-to-day warming. The lowlands will see
warmer temperatures each day with triple-digit heat in some
lowland locations by Friday, and most locations for both days
during the weekend. El Paso, on of the warmer locations in the
area, will like see weekend max temps in the 103-106 range.
Conditions will remain dry, with no rain/storm chances, and few,
if any clouds. Winds will be predominantly from the SW, and
marginally breezy in the afternoons.

Monday-Wednesday, a large low pressure center aloft moves out of
Canada into the Upper Midwest, at the surface, high pressure will
push south across the plains, and wash up again the NM Central
Mountains. Overall this pattern will bump our high pressure SW off
the Baja. This will result in an easing of temperatures, and also
introduce slight moisture to our N and E areas, and potentially
allow a disturbance or two to swing through over the Sacs and
vicinity. Thus we should see temps back off about 5-7 degrees to
start our next workweek, and potentially see some POPs for showers
and storms over E Sierra, Otero, N Hudspeth county for MON-WED.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1056 AM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the period, Winds will become
southwesterly this afternoon, and little breezy at times, with
gusts in the 20 to 25 knot range at DMN, and 25 to 28 knots at
TCS. Generally clear skies overnight, with winds light,
AOB7-10kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1056 AM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Long story short...we are trending warmer and drier through the
weekend. What moisture we got earlier in the week, will be
departing. Atmospheric moisture, is still lurking, and flirting
over our eastern areas...lowlands and lower slopes of Otero and
Hudspeth counties, but the rest of the region has already dried
out. Any fuel and soil moistening will also be lost in short
order, due to the longer and sunnier days, with a return to very
low RH, mildly breezy dry SW winds, and hotter days.

Through the weekend, high pressure will strengthen to our south
and build north over the region. This will lead to a warming
trend, with mild morning temperatures, and afternoon highs well
above normal. Some lowland locations will be back to 100s
tomorrow, with most at and above 100 for the weekend afternoons.
RH will be trending lower, as the temperatures trend higher.
Lowlands will see daily minRH in the 3-8% range, while the
mountains see 7-12% minRH. Fortunately, we are under high
pressure, with no trough passages, thus no strong wind events
through this period. However, there will be marginally breezy
afternoons, with SW winds in the 10-20 mph range. Bottom line, is
ELEVATED fire weather conditions for sure due to heat,
instability, and dryness, but CRITICAL fire weather conditions
are not expected due to the lower winds.

Minor relief arrive Monday, as a large low pressure system drops
out of Canada, into the Upper Midwest. This system will bump our
dome of high pressure to the BAJA, and help to lower our
temperatures about 5-7 degrees. Temperatures will remain warm, and
slightly warmer than normal, but not excessively hot, like over
the weekend. In addition, we could see some more moisture
intruding over our northern and eastern areas, give Sierra, Otero,
Hudspeth counties bump in RH, and even some potential for isol/sct
rain and storms. The rest of the area will likely remain quite
dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  71 101  72 104 /  10   0  10   0
Sierra Blanca            65  97  64 100 /  30  20  20  10
Las Cruces               62  97  63 100 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               64  97  63 101 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               50  76  52  78 /   0  10   0  10
Truth or Consequences    64  98  65 100 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              57  89  57  92 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   61  99  61 103 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                59  96  60  99 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       71  99  70 103 /  10   0  10   0
Dell City                65 101  65 104 /  10  20  10   0
Fort Hancock             69 104  68 106 /  30  10  20   0
Loma Linda               65  94  66  97 /  10   0  10   0
Fabens                   68 102  67 105 /  10   0  10   0
Santa Teresa             65  97  65 102 /  10   0  10   0
White Sands HQ           69  99  71 102 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            60  97  61 101 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    60 100  60 103 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 66 100  67 102 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                64  96  65 100 /  10   0  10   0
Mayhill                  53  88  55  91 /   0  20   0  10
Mescalero                54  86  54  89 /   0  10   0  10
Timberon                 50  84  54  88 /  10  10  10  10
Winston                  50  89  51  92 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                59  96  60 100 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                58  96  59 100 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             53  90  52  93 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   56  93  57  96 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    56  95  56 100 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               56  90  56  95 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  59  93  60  96 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   59  97  62 100 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  59  97  61 100 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           59  97  61 100 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               61  90  62  95 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...14-Bird