Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
474 FXUS64 KEPZ 130449 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1049 PM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 745 PM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025 - An overall increase in thunderstorm activity is expected through the week, with the usual potential monsoon hazards of heavy rainfall with localized flooding, gusty winds, and localized blowing dust. - With the return of moisture and increased cloudiness, day time temperatures will drop back towards mid-July normals for today and through next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 745 PM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025 As our recent upper-level high pressure feature continues to recenter well to our west, our region will see more and more influence from conditions to our the east. A big reason for this is a broad upper high well to our east that is nosing across West Texas. This places us in the weakness between high pressure west and high pressure east. For much of the week ahead we will be in a deep S and SE flow over our region at mid and upper levels. This means an increase in easterly low-level flow, which will be accompanied by Gulf moisture. The entire week ahead will feature a relatively moist environment across the Borderland. We won`t see much more than typical monsoon month moisture levels, but our 40-50+ surface dewpoints and PWATs in the 0.90" to 1.20" will be plenty enough to keep our atmosphere conditionally unstable. With all the model convective feedback, it is difficult to find any organized shortwaves or impulses tracking over, in the synoptic flow, through the week. This makes it hard to key on one day looking more active than another, is it appears we will be dealing with airmass type storms, forming off heat and upslope flow midday, followed by outflow generated storms later day. Looking at layer RH, and QFP fields it simply looks like we collect a broad channel of moisture, N to S, across our region, and keep it anchored, trapped, over the region through the week. We should have a relatively consistent diurnal pattern of scattered to numerous showers and storms each afternoon and evening through the forecast cycle. The increased moisture, clouds, and showers/storms will keep our temperatures lower, and out of 100 degree contention, with our highest highs across the lowlands in the mid 90s. Looking ahead to next weekend, the GFS model does indicate a westward shift of the moisture, with drier air pushing in and reducing rain and storm chances. That shift is way to far out to be confident in that, so we`ll keep daily pops in the forecast through the end of the run. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 518 PM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025 AFT 05-06Z most activity should be south of all terminals and tracking away into Mexico. With this, we will see calming winds, settling dust, and clearing skies, with VFR conditions through the night and through Sunday morning. We expect another round of shower and thunderstorm development around 18Z tomorrow over area mountains, to be followed by lowland storms aft 20Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 745 PM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025 With high pressure aloft finally dislodging to the west, and high pressure nudging in from the east, we will begin to see increased moisture filter in from the east and south. This pattern will open up a N-S channel which will trap moisture across the region. This will mean a trend toward slightly cooler temperatures, and somewhat higher relative humidity. This also means daily rounds of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. With the expected rains and elevated dewpoints, nighttime RH recoveries will be good to very good. Afternoon RH will be higher, but still dip briefly into the upper teens to lower 20 percent range early afternoons. Most mornings will be generally sunny, with potential for some lingering clouds from the previous evening`s storms. The mornings will warm and dry quick, followed by late morning buildups forming over the mountains. Storms will form first over the area mountains, reversing the warming and drying for the afternoons. Lowlands will see late day showers and storms, formed often on outflows from the earlier storms. All personnel in the field should expect a week of unsettled afternoon weather conditions, and be mindful of the hazards of lightning, erratic outflow winds, and possible flash flooding off burn scars, and in drainage bottoms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 102 74 97 72 / 40 40 30 40 Sierra Blanca 93 65 89 63 / 20 40 50 40 Las Cruces 100 68 95 67 / 40 50 30 60 Alamogordo 97 66 93 65 / 20 20 50 40 Cloudcroft 74 50 72 48 / 50 30 70 40 Truth or Consequences 99 70 96 68 / 40 40 40 50 Silver City 93 61 91 60 / 40 60 70 60 Deming 102 69 99 68 / 40 50 30 60 Lordsburg 99 68 98 67 / 20 40 50 70 West El Paso Metro 100 73 96 72 / 40 50 30 50 Dell City 94 70 93 67 / 20 20 30 30 Fort Hancock 101 72 97 70 / 20 40 50 30 Loma Linda 91 65 88 63 / 20 10 30 30 Fabens 100 71 96 70 / 20 20 30 30 Santa Teresa 99 70 95 69 / 40 50 20 50 White Sands HQ 98 71 96 70 / 40 40 40 50 Jornada Range 98 67 96 66 / 40 40 40 50 Hatch 101 69 98 67 / 40 50 40 60 Columbus 102 71 98 70 / 30 50 30 60 Orogrande 94 69 92 65 / 30 30 40 40 Mayhill 81 55 80 54 / 50 30 70 40 Mescalero 86 54 83 53 / 50 30 70 40 Timberon 81 54 78 52 / 50 20 60 40 Winston 92 57 89 55 / 40 40 60 60 Hillsboro 97 64 95 62 / 50 50 60 60 Spaceport 98 66 95 64 / 30 40 40 50 Lake Roberts 94 56 92 56 / 50 60 70 60 Hurley 96 64 93 62 / 40 60 60 60 Cliff 99 65 98 64 / 40 40 60 60 Mule Creek 95 62 96 61 / 40 40 60 60 Faywood 94 64 92 63 / 50 60 60 60 Animas 99 68 98 66 / 20 30 50 70 Hachita 98 66 97 65 / 20 40 40 70 Antelope Wells 97 68 96 65 / 30 40 60 70 Cloverdale 92 64 91 63 / 20 40 70 70 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...14-Bird