300
FXUS64 KEPZ 050520
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1020 PM MST Tue Feb 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1014 PM MST Tue Feb 4 2025

 - Warm and Dry...Dry, fair weather conditions otherwise.

 - Daily high temperature at or above records, with daily max
   temperatures 15 to 20 degrees above average.

 - Warm and dry conditions will elevate fire weather concerns
   across the Borderland. However, despite some afternoon
   breezes, winds will fall short of critical fire weather
   conditions.

 - A dry back door cold front will arrive Sunday. We expect
   temperatures to cool 5-10 degrees. However, temperatures will
   continue warmer than normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 140 PM MST Tue Feb 4 2025

A low-amplitude mid level pattern resides across the entire U.S.
with a broad ridge of high pressure controlling the weather for
most of the country. A minor trough sits over both the west and
east coasts. We sit under a deep, dry, and warm southwest flow
between the west coast trough and the Central U.S. ridge axis.
Over the next 2 days, this pattern will flatten and give us a more
westerly zonal flow for the weekend and into next week.

Our current airmass will continue to moderate, and the uniform SW
and W flow will import warmer air into the region. This hold
temperatures up, with all of the region seeing much above normal
temperatures (by 15 to 20 degrees); and much of the region seeing
a period of above freezing morning lows. Each day through at least
Friday, afternoon highs will approach record highs, with Thursday
and Friday looking like sure bets.

A minor ripple/wave passes by Wednesday for a slight increase in
winds, with mildly and occasionally breezy conditions. The
combination of a very dry airmass, much warmer than normal
temperatures, and conditions nearing breezy, will elevate fire
weather conditions. However, concerns are relatively low, with
conditions staying well short of critical.

Temperatures stay quite elevated through Saturday, before we
finally see a drop with a backdoor cold front intrusion. However,
the cold air is shallow, with only moderate cooling. So highs
won`t drop more that 5-10 degrees behind the front for Sunday.
Thus our daily highs will continue to run well above normal. The
front push in no moisture to speak of, so we will continue with
dry weather, and no chances for any precipitation across the
region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1014 PM MST Tue Feb 4 2025

VFR conditions expected through the period with skies SKC through
Wednesday. Winds generally light at 3-7 knots during the overnight
and morning hours, VRB in direction. Winds become SWerly during
the late morning and afternoon hour at 7-12 knots with gusts to
15-20 knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 140 PM MST Tue Feb 4 2025

A broad and flat ridge resides over the western U.S. with a warm
and dry southwest flow pattern across the region. This pattern
will flatten a bit over the next several days, but the resulting
weather will not change much. As is, we are seeing very much
above normal temperatures (with daily highs 15-20 degrees warmer
than normal). This means daily record to near-record daily high
temperatures, and mild nights. We are also quite dry, with minRH
approaching and dipping into the single-digits across the
lowlands, and lower teens across the mountains. Morning RH
recoveries are going to be poor to moderate also. In addition,
looking at ERCs, they are high, and near record for the time of
year...so fuels are drier than they should be. This means elevated
fire weather conditions for the rest of the week.

A minor ripple/wave passes by Wednesday for a slight increase in
winds, with mildly and occasionally breezy conditions. The
combination of a very dry airmass, much warmer than normal
temperatures, and conditions nearing breezy, will elevate fire
weather conditions. However, concerns are relatively low, with
conditions falling well short of critical.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  47  80  44  79 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            45  77  43  77 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               39  77  38  76 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               41  76  37  74 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               38  56  36  55 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    38  76  37  74 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              39  68  38  68 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   36  79  34  78 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                35  74  32  75 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       48  78  46  76 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                39  80  37  79 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             43  82  41  82 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               47  71  45  70 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   44  80  40  80 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             41  76  39  74 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           49  78  46  76 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            38  77  36  75 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    36  81  33  79 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 41  80  38  79 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                41  76  39  74 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  44  71  42  69 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                40  66  35  64 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 37  65  35  64 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  31  71  25  69 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                41  78  36  75 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                35  78  32  75 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             37  68  35  66 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   36  73  33  72 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    28  76  23  75 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               37  70  33  68 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  41  73  38  71 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   36  78  33  79 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  36  78  34  79 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           39  79  36  80 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               43  71  42  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...38-Rogers