Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
909
FXUS64 KEPZ 171738
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1138 AM MDT Thu Sep 17 2026
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1130 AM MDT Thu Sep 17 2026
- This afternoon and tonight will see another round of
thunderstorms that will move through the region with the best
chances across southwest New Mexico and the Rio Grande Valley.
Flood Watch remains in effect through Friday morning for those
areas.
- Scattered thunderstorms continue on Friday and Saturday, but
the best chances for rain will shift east of the Rio Grande.
Additional rain chances are expected next week as another surge
of moisture arrives.
- Typical mid-September temperatures into the weekend, with
lowland highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1130 AM MDT Thu Sep 17 2026
Our active, moist weather pattern continues as we remain
sandwiched between a closed low over Northern CA and the
subtropical ridge centered near Little Rock. SPC analysis shows
about 1.2" of PW, so heavy rain remains a threat. A weak s/w is
over the Northern Gulf of California, and that will be our main
player this evening into the overnight hours as it lifts north
through the region. Prior to then, convection will be a little
delayed and limited to the mountains. By around 6PM, a complex of
storms will start moving in from Mexico associated with the low
over the Gulf of California. The main precip threat associated
with this system will be across the Rio Grande Valley, which
received a lot of rainfall last night. Thus, the current FFA looks
good.
The aforementioned low will push into Northern NM by Friday
afternoon while we remain under the influence of a trough. Another
little s/w trough axis will swing through Friday evening, but this
time the focus for storms will mainly be east of the Rio Grande.
Another trough axis will swing through the Parent low over
Yellowstone Saturday afternoon, but the focus will be near the
eastern border of our CWA.
A s/w ridge will fill in behind the upper level trough/low with
fair and warm weather for Sunday. Our CWA is expected to be precip
free. Monday will be a repeat of Sunday, but by Tuesday, moist,
subtropical southerly flow will reestablish itself over NM and Far
West Texas. Tuesday and into the rest of next week looks quite
active as systems ride up the moist, southerly flow.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 AM MDT Thu Sep 17 2026
Mainly VFR conditions are expected with variable skies. Bases will
be as low as 080, lower in TSRA/SHRA. ISO TSRA/SHRA will develop
between 18 and 00z, mainly for mountains, but more widespread
SHRA/TSRA is expected to move in from Mexico after 0z, similar to
what occurred last night. There is a very good likelihood for
impacts at TCS, DMN, and LRU. ELP will be on the eastern edge of
precip, so chances are a little lower, which is reflected by a
PROB30 rather than TEMPO. Gusty winds and torrential rain will be
the main impacts with these storms. SHRA/TSRA should clear the
area before 12z. Aside from storms, winds will be SE`LY 5 to 10
knots with gusts up to 20 knots.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1130 AM MDT Thu Sep 17 2026
There are no fire weather concerns for the next five days. We will
remain within a moist southerly flow through tomorrow, but
moisture will begin to decline some over the weekend. We start
with min RH values in the mid 20s to mid 30s, slumping to the low
to mid 20s area wide by Sunday and Monday. We will continue with
shower and thunderstorm chances tonight, then along and east of
the Rio Grande for Friday, and then the far east for Saturday.
Sunday and Monday look to be precip free. By late Monday night
though moisture will return with another wet pattern expected for
the middle of next week.
Winds will be light, limiting vent rates, but with deep mixing,
vent categories will still range fair to good for Friday, becoming
good to very good for the weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 70 93 68 92 / 40 20 40 10
Sierra Blanca 64 91 65 90 / 10 10 40 60
Las Cruces 65 89 63 90 / 60 20 30 0
Alamogordo 66 90 65 89 / 30 30 50 20
Cloudcroft 49 67 50 68 / 20 50 50 40
Truth or Consequences 65 84 62 87 / 70 30 30 10
Silver City 60 80 59 83 / 70 30 10 10
Deming 64 89 62 91 / 70 20 20 0
Lordsburg 65 87 64 90 / 50 20 0 0
West El Paso Metro 70 93 69 92 / 50 20 40 10
Dell City 67 94 67 92 / 10 20 40 40
Fort Hancock 71 99 72 97 / 10 20 50 50
Loma Linda 65 87 65 85 / 20 20 40 20
Fabens 69 96 68 94 / 30 20 40 20
Santa Teresa 68 91 65 90 / 60 20 30 10
White Sands HQ 70 91 69 91 / 60 20 50 10
Jornada Range 66 89 63 89 / 50 30 40 10
Hatch 66 90 63 92 / 70 30 30 10
Columbus 68 92 65 93 / 60 20 20 0
Orogrande 65 89 63 88 / 30 20 40 10
Mayhill 55 81 55 81 / 20 50 50 60
Mescalero 53 78 53 79 / 30 50 50 40
Timberon 53 77 53 77 / 20 40 50 40
Winston 55 76 53 78 / 70 50 30 20
Hillsboro 64 83 63 87 / 70 30 30 10
Spaceport 63 86 60 88 / 60 30 40 10
Lake Roberts 55 79 52 82 / 70 40 10 10
Hurley 60 82 58 86 / 70 20 20 10
Cliff 62 87 60 89 / 60 30 10 0
Mule Creek 60 84 59 86 / 40 20 0 0
Faywood 62 82 60 85 / 80 30 20 0
Animas 65 88 64 91 / 60 20 10 10
Hachita 64 87 62 90 / 40 20 10 0
Antelope Wells 64 88 64 91 / 50 20 10 10
Cloverdale 62 85 62 86 / 30 20 10 10
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Flood Watch through late tonight for Central Grant County/Silver
City Area-East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-
Eastern Black Range Foothills-Northern Dona Ana County-
Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-Sierra County Lakes-
Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-Southern Gila
Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southern Gila Region
Highlands/Black Range-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-West
Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...34-Brown