Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
135 FXUS64 KEPZ 011243 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 643 AM MDT Sat Nov 1 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .UPDATE... Issued at 628 AM MDT Sat Nov 1 2025 Made some adjustments to overnight low temperatures for the next few nights as the NBM continues to perform horribly with strong radiational cooling. && .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 628 AM MDT Sat Nov 1 2025 - Quiet weather pattern into early November with no precipitation in the forecast. - Above normal temperatures and generally light winds expected. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 955 PM MDT Fri Oct 31 2025 Tranquil weather is expected through the forecast period. A weak backdoor cold front moves in on Saturday, bringing some cooler air and modestly breezy winds for west slopes. High temps will be 5-10 degrees cooler than Fri along and E of the RGV. Upper ridging builds in by Sun, then shifts east and elongates across the southeast US into midweek, allowing temperatures to rebound to above normal by Monday (near 10 degrees). Highs will be within several degrees of daily records from Mon onward, most likely on Tue. Quasi-zonal flow then takes over late in the period while the storm track is well to our north. Dry and warm conditions are forecast through late next week with light to modestly breezy winds continuing. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 628 AM MDT Sat Nov 1 2025 Light and variable flow early this morning will favor NNW to NNE after sunrise, then slowly trend towards southeasterly by late this afternoon, as high pressure builds south across the Southern Great Plains. Skies will be SKC-FEW250 through the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 628 AM MDT Sat Nov 1 2025 Tranquil weather expected through the period as upper level ridging builds in over the weekend, then slowly flattens out into zonal flow by mid-week. Afternoon high temperatures will be near normal today, then will slowly increase through the next several days, with lower to middle 80s common across the lowlands by Tuesday. Overnight lows will vary considerably with terrain, and with a dry air mass in place, strong radiational cooling will make for some cold spots in valley locations, particularly at higher elevations. Minimum RH values will drop into the lower 10s area-wide by Monday as temperatures tick upwards. Vent rates will be limited, especially on Sunday, but will improve by Monday as mixing heights and transport winds increase. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 48 77 50 82 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 49 74 47 78 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 42 74 43 78 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 42 73 43 79 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 38 57 40 62 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 48 75 48 78 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 45 73 46 74 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 40 78 40 82 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 42 77 42 80 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 48 75 49 79 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 38 77 40 80 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 46 80 45 85 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 41 70 43 74 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 41 78 40 82 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 50 74 48 78 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 50 75 51 80 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 37 75 38 79 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 40 78 41 82 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 49 78 47 81 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 45 72 46 77 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 39 71 42 74 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 36 67 39 72 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 28 64 33 68 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 32 72 36 74 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 50 76 50 79 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 41 74 42 78 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 26 75 28 75 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 42 75 42 77 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 35 80 39 82 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 29 76 30 77 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 49 72 47 75 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 44 79 44 82 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 44 77 43 80 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 39 78 43 82 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 46 75 47 76 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...25-Hardiman