Area Forecast Discussion
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185
FXUS64 KEPZ 050002 AAA
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
602 PM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 540 PM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025

 - Temperatures climb through Sunday before decreasing some early
   next week, then back up mid to late next week

 - Moisture slowly recovers on Sunday, bringing isolated to
   scattered thunderstorm chances, especially west

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1045 AM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025

A weak UL s/w trough is continuing to sweep drier air into NM, pushing
our monsoonal plume to the east. Rain chances will all but disappear
for today into tomorrow with only the Bootheel seeing a chance
for storms as moisture comes off the Sierra Madres. High pressure will
also be building aloft, which will allow temperatures to warm. El Paso
will add to its 100-degree count again tomorrow and Sunday.

The high will continue to build and strengthen on Sunday, but moisture
will begin a slow increase, allowing isolated storm chances to return
to the picture. That remains the case through much of next week. The
high will gradually shift from NM into AZ although there are notable
differences in the strengthen of the high between the Euro and
GFS. Storm chances will remain within the scattered (30- 60%) and
isolated (15-30%) categories, with the highest chances west of the Divide,
aligned with the better stream of moisture, and the mountains. Highs
will also climb for mid to late next week with the NBM showing a
decent signal heat advisories will be needed for El Paso (20% Wednesday
and 50% next Thursday of 105 degrees or warmer).

Happy Independence Day!

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 540 PM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025

VFR conditions to prevail throughout the TAF period. Gusty winds
will taper off most terminals aft sunset. Typical breezes will
return aft 05/18Z, with gusts generally under 20 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1045 AM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Warming temperatures and lower dew points will lead to a decrease
in min RH values, with much of the lowlands falling below 15% for
tomorrow and Sunday afternoon. Rain/storm chances will all but disappear
except across the Bootheel. Winds will remain light, however, topping
out around 10 MPH. As we go into Sunday, moisture begins to increase
again leading to scattered mountain and isolated to scattered
lowland storms. Rain/storm chances will favor areas west of the Divide.

Vent categories will range fair to very good each afternoon,
largely limited by weak transport winds courtesy of high pressure
aloft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  76 101  75 101 /   0   0   0  10
Sierra Blanca            66  94  67  92 /   0   0   0  20
Las Cruces               69  98  69  98 /   0   0   0  10
Alamogordo               68  99  69  98 /   0   0   0  20
Cloudcroft               53  78  52  75 /   0   0   0  50
Truth or Consequences    70  97  70  98 /   0   0   0  10
Silver City              62  90  64  93 /   0  10  10  30
Deming                   68  99  69 101 /   0   0   0  10
Lordsburg                66  96  68  99 /  10  10  10  20
West El Paso Metro       74 100  75  99 /   0   0   0  10
Dell City                67  99  69  96 /   0   0   0  20
Fort Hancock             72 101  72 101 /   0   0   0  20
Loma Linda               68  93  68  92 /   0   0   0  20
Fabens                   71 101  72 100 /   0   0   0  10
Santa Teresa             71  98  71  99 /   0   0   0  10
White Sands HQ           74  99  74  99 /   0   0   0  20
Jornada Range            66  98  68  98 /   0   0   0  20
Hatch                    67 100  68 101 /   0   0   0  10
Columbus                 74  99  73 101 /  10   0   0  10
Orogrande                67  97  69  96 /   0   0   0  20
Mayhill                  59  88  57  83 /   0  10   0  50
Mescalero                57  89  57  86 /   0   0   0  50
Timberon                 56  85  56  83 /   0   0   0  40
Winston                  57  89  58  91 /   0  10   0  30
Hillsboro                65  96  67  98 /   0  10   0  20
Spaceport                65  97  66  98 /   0   0   0  20
Lake Roberts             56  92  59  93 /   0  20  10  40
Hurley                   63  93  65  95 /   0  10   0  20
Cliff                    63  97  66 100 /   0  10  10  30
Mule Creek               61  93  64  96 /   0  10  10  30
Faywood                  65  93  66  94 /   0  10   0  20
Animas                   67  96  69  98 /  20  10  10  30
Hachita                  67  95  67  98 /  10  10  10  20
Antelope Wells           66  95  67  98 /  30  20  10  30
Cloverdale               64  90  67  93 /  40  30  20  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...99