Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
516 FXUS64 KEPZ 231652 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 952 AM MST Sun Nov 23 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 950 AM MST Sun Nov 23 2025 - Isolated rain and high elevation snow showers and breezy west winds through this evening, mostly across central New Mexico. - Dry with seasonable temperatures for Monday through next week into the Thanksgiving holiday period. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 950 AM MST Sun Nov 23 2025 An UL low over NW AZ will continue to influence our weather for today, but impacts will be minor namely in the form of isolated showers with perhaps a clap of thunder. Much of the activity will be limited to areas north of I-10 and west of I-25 with a dry slot covering the rest of the CWA. Winds will also be low-end breezy this afternoon as a H500 jet passes over Northern Chihuahua and Hudspeth County. Temperatures will be seasonal. This UL low will continue to push NE into the Plains by Monday with a long wave trough covering the CONUS. UL ridging over the Pacific will gradually translate east leaving the CWA within dry, NW flow aloft for much of the period. Ridge axis finally reaches the Rio Grande Valley by Thursday. UL trough will begin to take over by Friday in the form of a s/w. Impacts from this initial s/w will be very minor with some mild breezes. Temperatures will also reach their peak. Thanksgiving and Black Friday look rather pleasant with lowland highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Slightly cooler air will follow the s/w trough`s passage on Friday, lowering highs for Saturday. The weak s/w is just a signal for a pattern change going into next week as a long wave trough sets up over the Western CONUS leading to more unsettled and potentially frigid weather as we finish out November and enter December. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 950 AM MST Sun Nov 23 2025 VFR conditions are expected with SCT-BKN050-250 across DMN and TCS with FEW-SCT050-250 for LRU and ELP. Showers/-RA may be ongoing by 18z at TCS, but otherwise, prob for precip is AOB 20% for DMN and TCS and almost nil for LRU and ELP. Any precip will be over by sunset. Winds will be a little breezy, from the WSW to W with speeds of 10 to 15 knots this afternoon along with a few gusts of 20 to 25 knots. Winds will decrease after sunset though perhaps a little slower at ELP given proximity to the Franklin Mtns. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 950 AM MST Sun Nov 23 2025 The fire risk will remain low throughout the period. A few lingering showers will continue this afternoon with most, if not all, of the activity dissipated by sunset. A clap of thunder cannot be ruled out. Winds will be breezy this afternoon topping out in the 10 to 15 MPH range with higher gusts. The rest of the period will feature gradually warming temperatures and light winds. Min RH values this afternoon will range 35 to 45 in the lowlands only falling to the upper 20s and lower 30s by mid-week. Vent rates will be good to very good today but will only range poor to fair for the rest of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 42 64 39 67 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 35 60 34 63 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 34 60 33 63 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 33 60 34 63 / 20 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 24 42 26 47 / 20 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 37 61 36 61 / 20 0 0 0 Silver City 30 57 31 61 / 20 0 0 0 Deming 34 63 32 66 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 33 58 32 63 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 41 63 40 66 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 33 65 31 67 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 39 67 36 70 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 36 57 36 59 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 37 65 35 68 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 37 61 34 64 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 40 63 40 66 / 20 0 0 0 Jornada Range 31 61 31 64 / 20 0 0 0 Hatch 32 65 32 66 / 20 0 0 0 Columbus 39 64 37 66 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 32 60 32 62 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 28 57 30 60 / 20 0 0 0 Mescalero 26 53 27 58 / 20 0 0 0 Timberon 25 52 26 56 / 20 0 0 0 Winston 27 58 27 59 / 20 0 0 0 Hillsboro 33 62 35 63 / 20 0 0 0 Spaceport 30 60 30 62 / 20 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 26 59 26 63 / 20 0 0 0 Hurley 30 59 30 61 / 20 0 0 0 Cliff 30 62 27 66 / 20 0 0 0 Mule Creek 29 58 28 63 / 20 0 0 0 Faywood 32 59 34 61 / 20 0 0 0 Animas 35 60 34 65 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 34 60 31 63 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 33 63 34 65 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 35 57 37 61 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...34-Brown