Area Forecast Discussion
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186
FXUS64 KEPZ 021954 AAA
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1254 PM MST Tue Dec 2 2025

...New FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1247 PM MST Tue Dec 2 2025

 - Dry conditions, daily warming, and marginal afternoon breezes
   through midweek.

 - A minor storm system passes just to our north early Thursday.
   Light precipitation will favor the Gila and Sacramento mountain
   zones with elsewhere staying dry. Temperatures will be around 5
   to 10 degrees cooler.

 - Dry conditions, typical breezes, and daily warming return for
   this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1029 AM MST Tue Dec 2 2025

A longwave trough is currently visible on satellite attempting to
carve its way into the Great Basin. The system will deepen into
tonight as it swings towards the Desert Southwest. Generally
moderated temperatures can be expected on Wednesday for the
Borderland, alongside increasing clouds and locally breezy winds.

The trough will swing into northern AZ late Wednesday, delivering
a glancing blow to southern NM Wednesday night into Thursday. The
best dynamics and moisture will be localized well to our north,
but may still deliver some sprinkles and flurries to the Gila
Wednesday night. The system will attempt to dig further south
Thursday morning, with the best chances for mountain snow and
valley rain favoring the Sacramento Mts. Less than 1 inch of
snowfall is expected for the south central mts. Temperatures on
Thursday will be decently reduced compared to Wednesday`s
readings, with eastern zones seeing 5F to 10F of cooling and
western zones seeing 4F to 7F of cooling.

The system will broaden and eject into the Great Plains on Friday,
leaving a regime of northwest flow over the Borderland.
Temperatures will rebound quickly--especially out east--but will
still be near to below normal areawide. The warming trend will
continue through the weekend as a ridge of high pressure builds to
our west, bringing all locales 5F to 10F above normal by Sunday.
Another dry shortwave may bring a small shot of cooling early next
week, but otherwise no impacts to sensible weather.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1029 AM MST Tue Dec 2 2025

VFR conditions to prevail with typical aftn breezes.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1247 PM MST Tue Dec 2 2025

A weak storm system sliding into the Desert Southwest will bring
increased humidity Wednesday amongst a slight increase of west to
southwest winds. Light precipitation may graze the Gila region
Wednesday night, with precipitation shifting to the Sacramento
Mountains Thursday. Appreciable accumulation of rain or snow is
not likely. The system will eject into the Great Plains Thursday
night, allowing for a drying trend to take hold. MinRH will stay
above critical thresholds in the presence of typical afternoon
gusts through early next week. Ventilation will be a bit of a
mixed bag, with the best widespread good to very good rates
expected Wednesday. Poor to fair rates will prevail thereafter,
with Friday being the only day that sees better coverage of good
to very good ventilation.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  44  66  43  59 /   0   0   0  10
Sierra Blanca            38  64  35  54 /   0   0  10  10
Las Cruces               35  60  36  54 /   0   0   0  10
Alamogordo               37  61  34  54 /   0   0  20  10
Cloudcroft               27  40  22  35 /   0   0  30  10
Truth or Consequences    35  59  33  52 /   0   0  10  10
Silver City              32  52  30  51 /   0   0  10  10
Deming                   34  63  35  57 /   0   0   0  10
Lordsburg                32  60  31  56 /   0   0  10  10
West El Paso Metro       43  65  44  58 /   0   0   0  10
Dell City                35  66  33  54 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Hancock             42  71  41  63 /   0   0   0  10
Loma Linda               40  58  36  51 /   0   0  10  10
Fabens                   41  68  41  61 /   0   0  10  10
Santa Teresa             38  63  39  57 /   0   0   0  10
White Sands HQ           43  63  41  56 /   0   0  10  10
Jornada Range            31  60  31  54 /   0   0  10  10
Hatch                    34  63  35  57 /   0   0  10  10
Columbus                 40  66  40  59 /   0   0   0  10
Orogrande                35  60  35  54 /   0   0  10  10
Mayhill                  32  53  23  47 /   0   0  30  10
Mescalero                29  51  25  45 /   0   0  40  10
Timberon                 27  49  23  43 /   0   0  20  10
Winston                  24  52  20  48 /   0   0  10  10
Hillsboro                34  59  31  52 /   0   0  10  10
Spaceport                30  60  30  53 /   0   0  10  10
Lake Roberts             26  51  22  50 /   0   0  20  10
Hurley                   31  55  29  52 /   0   0  10  10
Cliff                    26  58  22  57 /   0   0  10  10
Mule Creek               24  54  21  52 /   0   0  20  10
Faywood                  34  55  32  51 /   0   0  10  10
Animas                   34  63  34  58 /   0   0  10  10
Hachita                  34  62  33  57 /   0   0   0  10
Antelope Wells           40  63  36  59 /   0   0   0  10
Cloverdale               38  57  37  54 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...99