Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
186 FXUS64 KEPZ 021954 AAA AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1254 PM MST Tue Dec 2 2025 ...New FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1247 PM MST Tue Dec 2 2025 - Dry conditions, daily warming, and marginal afternoon breezes through midweek. - A minor storm system passes just to our north early Thursday. Light precipitation will favor the Gila and Sacramento mountain zones with elsewhere staying dry. Temperatures will be around 5 to 10 degrees cooler. - Dry conditions, typical breezes, and daily warming return for this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1029 AM MST Tue Dec 2 2025 A longwave trough is currently visible on satellite attempting to carve its way into the Great Basin. The system will deepen into tonight as it swings towards the Desert Southwest. Generally moderated temperatures can be expected on Wednesday for the Borderland, alongside increasing clouds and locally breezy winds. The trough will swing into northern AZ late Wednesday, delivering a glancing blow to southern NM Wednesday night into Thursday. The best dynamics and moisture will be localized well to our north, but may still deliver some sprinkles and flurries to the Gila Wednesday night. The system will attempt to dig further south Thursday morning, with the best chances for mountain snow and valley rain favoring the Sacramento Mts. Less than 1 inch of snowfall is expected for the south central mts. Temperatures on Thursday will be decently reduced compared to Wednesday`s readings, with eastern zones seeing 5F to 10F of cooling and western zones seeing 4F to 7F of cooling. The system will broaden and eject into the Great Plains on Friday, leaving a regime of northwest flow over the Borderland. Temperatures will rebound quickly--especially out east--but will still be near to below normal areawide. The warming trend will continue through the weekend as a ridge of high pressure builds to our west, bringing all locales 5F to 10F above normal by Sunday. Another dry shortwave may bring a small shot of cooling early next week, but otherwise no impacts to sensible weather. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1029 AM MST Tue Dec 2 2025 VFR conditions to prevail with typical aftn breezes. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1247 PM MST Tue Dec 2 2025 A weak storm system sliding into the Desert Southwest will bring increased humidity Wednesday amongst a slight increase of west to southwest winds. Light precipitation may graze the Gila region Wednesday night, with precipitation shifting to the Sacramento Mountains Thursday. Appreciable accumulation of rain or snow is not likely. The system will eject into the Great Plains Thursday night, allowing for a drying trend to take hold. MinRH will stay above critical thresholds in the presence of typical afternoon gusts through early next week. Ventilation will be a bit of a mixed bag, with the best widespread good to very good rates expected Wednesday. Poor to fair rates will prevail thereafter, with Friday being the only day that sees better coverage of good to very good ventilation. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 44 66 43 59 / 0 0 0 10 Sierra Blanca 38 64 35 54 / 0 0 10 10 Las Cruces 35 60 36 54 / 0 0 0 10 Alamogordo 37 61 34 54 / 0 0 20 10 Cloudcroft 27 40 22 35 / 0 0 30 10 Truth or Consequences 35 59 33 52 / 0 0 10 10 Silver City 32 52 30 51 / 0 0 10 10 Deming 34 63 35 57 / 0 0 0 10 Lordsburg 32 60 31 56 / 0 0 10 10 West El Paso Metro 43 65 44 58 / 0 0 0 10 Dell City 35 66 33 54 / 0 0 10 10 Fort Hancock 42 71 41 63 / 0 0 0 10 Loma Linda 40 58 36 51 / 0 0 10 10 Fabens 41 68 41 61 / 0 0 10 10 Santa Teresa 38 63 39 57 / 0 0 0 10 White Sands HQ 43 63 41 56 / 0 0 10 10 Jornada Range 31 60 31 54 / 0 0 10 10 Hatch 34 63 35 57 / 0 0 10 10 Columbus 40 66 40 59 / 0 0 0 10 Orogrande 35 60 35 54 / 0 0 10 10 Mayhill 32 53 23 47 / 0 0 30 10 Mescalero 29 51 25 45 / 0 0 40 10 Timberon 27 49 23 43 / 0 0 20 10 Winston 24 52 20 48 / 0 0 10 10 Hillsboro 34 59 31 52 / 0 0 10 10 Spaceport 30 60 30 53 / 0 0 10 10 Lake Roberts 26 51 22 50 / 0 0 20 10 Hurley 31 55 29 52 / 0 0 10 10 Cliff 26 58 22 57 / 0 0 10 10 Mule Creek 24 54 21 52 / 0 0 20 10 Faywood 34 55 32 51 / 0 0 10 10 Animas 34 63 34 58 / 0 0 10 10 Hachita 34 62 33 57 / 0 0 0 10 Antelope Wells 40 63 36 59 / 0 0 0 10 Cloverdale 38 57 37 54 / 0 0 10 10 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...99