Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
662
FXUS64 KEPZ 101118
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
418 AM MST Mon Nov 10 2025
...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 417 AM MST Mon Nov 10 2025
- Morning temperatures near or below freezing for many areas for
Monday and Tuesday morning.
- Dry conditions with a warming trend through Thursday with no
significant weather impacts.
- A late-week storm system brings windy conditions on Friday and
a chance of rain and high elevation snow showers Friday
afternoon into Saturday evening.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 932 PM MST Sun Nov 9 2025
A dry and quiet weather pattern will occur Monday through
Thursday. A high pressure ridge on the west coast and dry
northwest flow will maintain a benign weather pattern over the
region through Thursday. Today`s stronger easterly winds have
diminished to light and variable tonight and will continue through
Monday night. Winds will become more southwesterly Tuesday through
Thursday with speeds around 10 mph. Skies will be sunny and clear
for the next several days with very little atmospheric moisture
present over the region.
Temperatures Monday morning will be near or below freezing for
many areas including the lowlands with the dry atmosphere, light
winds ,and clear skies allowing for radiative cooling processes
to drop temperatures several degrees below model guidance,
especially in low lying areas and valleys. Temperatures will
trend warmer through the week as the northwest flow pattern aloft
becomes more west to southwest, bringing in a warmer air mass.
For Friday and next weekend the weather pattern will undergo a
significant change toward an active state as the main flow
pattern begins bringing in what will be a series of low pressure
systems from the Pacific into the continental US beginning
Friday. The first of these large Winter like systems will move
onto the west coast Thursday night and will deepen into a closed
low over Arizona by Friday afternoon and move into New Mexico on
Saturday, giving the region windy conditions and a mix of lowland
rain and mountain snow showers.
The local area will feel the effects of the system with deep
southwest flow ahead of the system spreading over New Mexico
Friday and and Friday night with a mix of stronger winds and a low
(30 Percent) chance of lowland rain showers and high elevation
snow showers. Saturday the core of the low pressure system will
move the state with an increased chance of rain and high elevation
snow showers. Snow accumulations are expected above 7500 feet in
the 1 to 3 inch range. These amounts are subject to change as this
system is still evolving in the Pacific at this time. Another
weather system will impact the area a week from Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 417 AM MST Mon Nov 10 2025
VFR conditions through the period with SKC-SCT250. Surface winds
AOB 7 knots this morning, becoming east/southeast 7-10 knots this
afternoon.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 417 AM MST Mon Nov 10 2025
Low fire weather concerns for most of the period. Seasonable
temperatures today will warm to well above normal through Friday.
Winds generally light until Friday when strong southwest winds of
20-30 mph with gusts to 45 mph develop. Dry with low humidity also
up to Friday, when a Pacific storm system moves in. In addition to
the winds, a chance of rain and higher elevation snow Friday
afternoon and evening, and lasting into much of Saturday before
ending.
Min RH: Lowlands 18-25% this afternoon and Tuesday, decreasing to
12-17% Wed/Thu, then increasing to 20-30% Friday. Mountains
20-30% this afternoon and Tuesday, decreasing to 13-20% Wed/Thu,
then increasing to 30-45% Friday. Vent rates poor-fair through
Thursday and very good-excellent Friday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 41 73 45 78 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 33 70 39 74 / 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 33 70 37 75 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 34 69 37 74 / 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 29 52 33 57 / 0 0 0 0
Truth or Consequences 37 71 41 73 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 36 68 40 71 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 33 74 37 79 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 32 71 37 75 / 0 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 42 70 45 76 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 31 73 35 77 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 38 76 42 80 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 38 64 42 70 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 36 73 40 78 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 36 70 38 75 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 41 72 45 76 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada Range 28 71 30 75 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 31 74 35 78 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 36 74 41 79 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 32 68 36 73 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 35 67 38 70 / 0 0 0 0
Mescalero 31 63 35 68 / 0 0 0 0
Timberon 28 60 33 65 / 0 0 0 0
Winston 27 70 31 70 / 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro 37 73 42 76 / 0 0 0 0
Spaceport 29 70 33 74 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 30 70 33 71 / 0 0 0 0
Hurley 33 71 37 74 / 0 0 0 0
Cliff 33 74 39 77 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 29 70 34 73 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 36 70 41 73 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 32 73 39 78 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 30 73 36 77 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 35 76 41 79 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 39 70 45 72 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MST this morning for Sierra County
Lakes-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-Southwest
Desert/Mimbres Basin.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...17-Hefner