Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
395 FXUS64 KEPZ 011710 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1110 AM MDT Fri Aug 1 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1104 AM MDT Fri Aug 1 2025 - Isolated showers and thunderstorms through Saturday, favoring area mountains. Storms will be capable of heavy rainfall and gusty winds. - Hotter and much drier next week as high pressure aloft cuts off the flow of monsoon moisture. Lowland highs will reach triple digits each afternoon through next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1104 AM MDT Fri Aug 1 2025 For this afternoon, enough remaining moisture is available for scattered mountain storms to develop. The moisture plume has largely been cut off and pushed to the east by the upper high building over the region, but PWs are still near normal today (1-1.1"). The flash flood risk is highest along the eastern slopes of the Sacs with rain potential up to 2-3" with the heaviest storms. Modest instability (500-1000 J/kg SBCAPE) and minimal shear will keep storms relatively weak and short-lived. Isolated activity is expected in the lowlands with the best coverage in Hidalgo and Hudspeth Counties as a few showers or storms linger into the evening. Las Cruces and El Paso have about a 10% chance of rain later today. The upper high drifts to the west into AZ for Saturday, lowering moisture levels a bit more (PWs slightly below average, but dew points holding in the 50s) with similar thermodynamics to today. Again, scattered mtn convection is forecast with a 10-20% chance of storms in the lowlands and gusty wind potential. Storm motion today and tomorrow will be NW-erly around the high. After Saturday, the heat is on and we get a break from the monsoon. PWs fall more dramatically Sunday and Monday to well below normal as the upper high dominates the Southwest US (as low as 40% of normal) and dry air rotates in from the northwest. Rain chances will be little to none from Sunday onward, including the mountains as the upper high suppresses any storm development. The driest days look to be Monday and Tuesday with a subtle increase in moisture later in the week, focusing out west. Once the dry air arrives, dew points drop to the 30s, making it feel more like early June than early August, especially taking into account the near-600dam high overhead around midweek. Temperatures rise above 100 for most of the lowlands by Monday, staying hot for the rest of the period with not much change in temps from day to day. Heat Advisories will likely be needed for the lower RGV for much of next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1104 AM MDT Fri Aug 1 2025 Skies continue to clear to begin the period, allowing for isolated TS to develop over the mountains this afternoon. A storm or two could pass by KTCS later today, resulting in possible MVFR conditions. Otherwise, this afternoon`s convection should avoid the terminals with FEW-SCT CU expected and mostly clear skies tonight. TAF sites may see gusty outflows up to 25kts into the evening. Prevailing winds will be AOB 7kts mainly from SE. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1104 AM MDT Fri Aug 1 2025 Fire weather concerns will be low through the forecast period. Isolated to scattered mtn storms develop today and tomorrow during the afternoon hours as moisture levels stay near normal. These storms will be capable of producing heavy rain, frequent lightning and gusty winds. Otherwise, winds will be light and variable. Overnight recoveries will be good through Saturday night. Drier air arrives on Sunday from the northwest around the upper high, largely ending storm chances for a few days, even in the mountains. Dry and hot conditions are forecast for next week with little to no chance of storms, deep mixing, and light winds. Min RHs drop to 20-35% on Saturday; then 8-15% by Monday and 15-25% in FWZ 113. Vent rates will be poor to good through Saturday, then good to excellent. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 75 99 77 103 / 10 10 0 0 Sierra Blanca 67 93 68 97 / 10 20 0 0 Las Cruces 69 95 71 99 / 10 10 0 0 Alamogordo 68 94 71 97 / 10 20 0 0 Cloudcroft 50 72 53 76 / 10 30 0 10 Truth or Consequences 69 93 69 97 / 20 20 10 0 Silver City 64 89 64 92 / 30 30 10 10 Deming 70 98 69 102 / 10 10 10 0 Lordsburg 70 96 69 99 / 20 20 10 0 West El Paso Metro 74 96 76 99 / 10 10 0 0 Dell City 70 96 71 102 / 10 10 0 0 Fort Hancock 74 98 75 102 / 10 10 0 10 Loma Linda 67 90 70 94 / 10 10 0 0 Fabens 73 98 74 101 / 10 10 0 0 Santa Teresa 72 95 74 99 / 10 10 0 0 White Sands HQ 72 96 76 99 / 10 10 0 0 Jornada Range 69 94 71 97 / 10 10 10 0 Hatch 70 97 70 100 / 10 10 10 0 Columbus 71 97 73 101 / 10 10 10 0 Orogrande 69 93 71 97 / 10 10 0 0 Mayhill 55 83 58 86 / 10 30 0 10 Mescalero 55 83 59 86 / 10 30 10 10 Timberon 55 80 57 84 / 10 30 0 10 Winston 58 85 59 90 / 30 40 10 0 Hillsboro 65 93 64 97 / 30 30 10 0 Spaceport 67 93 68 97 / 10 10 10 0 Lake Roberts 59 89 59 92 / 40 40 10 10 Hurley 65 91 65 94 / 30 20 10 0 Cliff 67 96 66 99 / 30 20 10 0 Mule Creek 63 93 64 95 / 20 20 10 0 Faywood 67 90 66 94 / 20 20 10 0 Animas 69 97 69 99 / 20 20 10 0 Hachita 68 95 68 98 / 20 10 10 0 Antelope Wells 68 95 69 97 / 30 20 20 10 Cloverdale 68 91 68 93 / 30 20 20 10 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...39-Aronson