Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
842 FXUS64 KEPZ 161702 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1002 AM MST Sun Nov 16 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 946 AM MST Sun Nov 16 2025 - Pacific low brings breezy southwest winds on Sunday. Gusts up to 40 mph possible in the afternoon. - Cooler temperatures Monday into next week behind a Pacific cold front, with scattered rain showers and high elevation snow possible Wednesday into Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 946 AM MST Sun Nov 16 2025 Run-to-run model and ensemble consistency continues to be poor as the pattern and upper level flow regime transitions to a more active pattern across the Intermountain West through the period. Current mid-level water vapor imagery shows the aforementioned (in previous discussions) closed-off low pressure system over the Sierra Nevada Mtn and Great Basin Regions. The associated upper level jet streak will round the southeast/eastern periphery of said upper level low which will allow the trough axis to become negatively tilted through the Sunday timeframe. The low`s track will become more north/northeasterly across the Central/Northern Rockies Sunday and into Monday. The increase in PVA and upper level divergence will induce modest surface low pressure development over SE CO Sunday afternoon and evening, with it`s associated surface trough across NM. As a result winds will become breezy Sunday afternoon with isolated gusts to 40 mph across portions of eastern Grant and western Sierra County, with gusts of 25-35 mph across remaining portions of the CWA. Most of the associated low to mid level moisture will be focused near the center of the system, but as the trough axis pushes across western NM, isolated rain showers can be expected across the Gila Region Sunday afternoon. Areas east of the Continental Divide will remain dry. The Pacific cool front will push west to east on Monday, with temperatures cooling 5-10 degrees and winds becoming west to northwest. Pleasant weather conditions expected on Tuesday as shortwave ridging builds in ahead of the next Pacific storm system. This next system dive south/southeast across CA before pivoting east, moving along the International Border Tuesday night in to Wednesday. Thereafter, timing, track, and the evolution of this system continues to show inconsistencies with run-to-run guidance. 00Z ECMWF data shows this system taking a more northeasterly track across the Four Corners region as the upper level jet streak rounds the systems base and becomes negatively tilted. While the 06Z GFS run drops the closed low south of the International border, progressing east across northern Sonora and Chihuahua. With both solutions showing different timing, track, and evolution, confidence in the specific details remain low. That said, as 12Z guidance becomes available over the next few hours, each solution could massage out some those inconsistencies and become more in agreement. That said, looking at NBM and the respected ensemble suites, confidence is medium in terms of seeing light precipitation during the Wednesday/Thursday timeframe with light high elevation snow accumulations and light lowland rain accumulations. Model guidance continues to show inconsistencies heading into next week as the upper level flow regime remains active across North America. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 946 AM MST Sun Nov 16 2025 VMC expected through the TAF period with skies. Skies will be FEW-SCT at ~15kft with SCT-BKN at ~25kft through the afternoon and evening. Winds light and VRB, becoming southwesterly at 13-18 knots with gusts to 23-28 knots this afternoon and evening. Winds will slowly decrease after 03Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 946 AM MST Sun Nov 16 2025 Run-to-run model and ensemble consistency continues to be poor as the pattern and upper level flow regime transitions to a more active pattern across the Intermountain West through the period. Upper level trough will move across the Great Basin and Central Rockies region during the Sunday timeframe. As a result, afternoon winds will be southwest at 15-25 mph with gusts to 30 mph this afternoon and early evening, isolated gusts to 40 mph will be possible across portions of Grant/Sierra Counties. Temperatures this afternoon will remain generally above average areawide with near normal temperatures across portions of NMZ110. Min RH values will be no concern, above 25 percent areawide with very good to excellent smoke ventilation rates. Pacific colds front will push west to east across the area on Monday with winds become west/northwesterly, remain breezy at 10-20 mph. Min RH values will continue to me of no concern with temperatures at or slightly below the seasonal average. Vent rates on Monday will be good. Unsettled weather will persist from midweek through the end of the work week as another system tours the Desert Southwest. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 52 72 51 73 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 44 70 44 72 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 43 67 43 67 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 44 68 43 68 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 32 46 33 48 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 43 67 43 65 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 37 59 39 57 / 10 0 0 10 Deming 42 69 43 68 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 40 64 43 65 / 10 0 0 10 West El Paso Metro 51 69 51 69 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 46 72 41 74 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 49 77 47 78 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 46 64 46 65 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 48 73 47 74 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 46 68 46 68 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 49 69 49 68 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 42 67 43 67 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 43 71 42 69 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 45 72 47 70 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 43 67 43 67 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 38 60 37 60 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 36 58 36 59 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 34 55 34 56 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 32 61 33 57 / 0 0 0 10 Hillsboro 40 67 41 64 / 0 0 0 10 Spaceport 39 67 40 65 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 34 59 34 57 / 10 0 0 20 Hurley 37 62 39 60 / 10 0 0 10 Cliff 37 66 38 64 / 10 0 0 20 Mule Creek 36 60 38 58 / 10 0 0 30 Faywood 39 62 42 60 / 10 0 0 10 Animas 42 68 44 66 / 10 0 0 10 Hachita 41 68 42 67 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 43 69 43 68 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 43 62 44 60 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...38-Rogers