699
FXUS64 KEPZ 200024
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
624 PM MDT Sat Apr 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Low to medium rain chances end this evening as winds decrease.

 - Lighter winds and warmer on Sunday.

 - Warm and dry next work week with generally light winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 116 PM MDT Sat Apr 19 2025

A somewhat active day is ongoing as a cold front accompanying an
upper low to the north pushes through the area this afternoon.
The front has lofted some dust in Luna County, progressing
southeastward along the Int`l border. VIS has dropped to below 1
mile at EPZ and several dust advisories have been issued. We`ll
continue to track the dust as it heads into far west TX for any
additional dust products.

Behind the front is a band of rain showers moving from west to
east across the upper RGV. Any rainfall from this band will be
light with accumulations of up to a couple hundredths, if any. The
Sacs could see heavier rain totals due to orographic lift with
some snow mixing in. The warm ground temps however, will limit
snow accumulations (<1") in the high elevations. As the rain band
progresses this afternoon, it will lose most of its moisture and
struggle to produce any rainfall from about El Paso eastward.
Isolated to scattered rain showers have also developed behind the
rain band with low ceilings and even a few lightning strikes north
of Lordsburg. That shower activity lingers through the afternoon
before winding down this evening as the upper low ejects to the
east. In terms of winds, the post-frontal northwest winds will
stay breezy through the evening before subsiding overnight as the
pressure gradient loosens.

Once the low departs, zonal flow aloft takes over for Sunday with
light west winds and seasonably cool temps. Mid-level flow turns
more southwesterly for the work week, allowing temperatures to
rebound to a few degrees above normal (highs in the 80s for the
lowlands). Mainly dry conditions will prevail beginning on Sunday,
but a dryline looks to set up by Tuesday east of our area. The
Gulf moisture should stay to our east and keep any
rain/thunderstorm chances out of our CWA next week. Far eastern
areas will have the best chance of rain each afternoon beginning
on Tuesday, but mostly non-mentionable (<15%). A couple of
shortwaves later in the week could give us a better shot of the
dryline nudging further west and enhancing the return flow.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 557 PM MDT Sat Apr 19 2025

A Pacific cold front has pushed across the area this afternoon,
and gusty WNW to NW flow continues in its wake, though there has
been a brief lull behind a band of precip that pushed through.
This band has mostly broken up east of the Sacramento Mountains
and east of ELP, though some scattered showers remain across
Sierra and northern Otero Counties, which could graze TCS before
dissipating after sunset. Winds could become a gusty again in any
showers up there.

Elsewhere, expect winds of 15-20 knots and gusts 25 to 35 knots to
diminish quickly after sunset. Some light blowing dust could work
back into ELP from the west, but visibility will likely stay in
the 7 to 10 mile range east of the Franklins.

VFR conditions will prevail through the night and tomorrow, with
lighter winds prevailing area-wide.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 116 PM MDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Fire weather concerns will be low through the forecast period.
Breezy northwest winds linger this evening behind the frontal
passage before becoming light overnight as the pressure gradient
loosens. RH recoveries tonight will be good. For Sunday,
temperatures rebound closer to normal with light west winds and
lower humidity under zonal flow aloft. The rest of the period
will be dry and warm with highs a few degrees above average under
modest SW flow. Winds will be generally light from the west with
modest afternoon breezes.

Min RHs will be 7-15% Sunday, then 4-10%. Vent rates range from
fair to very good Sunday, then mostly excellent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  45  75  51  87 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            39  69  44  84 /  10   0   0   0
Las Cruces               36  72  42  82 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               36  70  42  81 /  30   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               22  49  30  60 /  50   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    37  73  43  81 /  20   0   0   0
Silver City              32  67  41  75 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   34  74  41  83 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                32  72  38  82 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       45  73  52  84 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                38  74  39  86 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             41  76  46  91 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               38  66  48  79 /  10   0   0   0
Fabens                   41  74  46  89 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             39  71  44  83 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           44  73  50  83 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            34  72  39  82 /  10   0   0   0
Hatch                    35  74  39  85 /  10   0   0   0
Columbus                 38  74  44  84 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                38  69  43  81 /  10   0   0   0
Mayhill                  30  64  34  74 /  30   0   0   0
Mescalero                26  59  33  71 /  50   0   0   0
Timberon                 25  59  33  70 /  30   0   0   0
Winston                  26  67  32  75 /  20   0   0   0
Hillsboro                33  72  41  80 /  20   0   0   0
Spaceport                30  72  38  81 /  20   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             20  69  25  76 /  10   0   0   0
Hurley                   29  71  38  77 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    29  74  36  82 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               26  69  35  77 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  34  68  41  77 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   34  74  39  85 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  34  72  39  83 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           35  74  42  83 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               36  70  44  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...25-Hardiman