Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
003 FXUS64 KEPZ 081148 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 548 AM MDT Wed Oct 8 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 536 AM MDT Wed Oct 8 2025 - Temperatures remain near or a few degrees above normal through Saturday before cooling down early next week. - Low chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday, favoring northern and eastern areas. - Drier conditions Thursday and Friday, trending back up this weekend and early next week with some remnant tropical moisture moving into the area. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 928 PM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025 The frontal boundary that brought us some moisture/storm chances and slightly cooler temps will linger in the area for Wed. Isolated to scattered convection lingers for much of tonight according to hi-res models, mainly over south-central NM, as the front continues to provide forcing. The front makes slow progression westward tomorrow, pushing storm chances over west-central NM. Mostly dry conditions are expected in the lowlands with the Gila Region most likely to see PM storms where dynamics and instability are most favorable, but not robust for strong/severe convection. Still, gusty winds and small hail are possible for northern areas. Prevailing post-frontal winds remain breezy along the I-10 corridor with speeds of 10-20 mph from the ESE through the day. Heading into Thu, the upper high to the east shifts closer to us over W TX, nudging most of the moisture into AZ. Storm chances will lower further for Thu with only slight PoPs in the Gila. The pressure gradient loosens a bit with slightly lighter winds during the day. A similar day is expected for Fri as mainly dry conditions prevail for the region. For the weekend and early next week, our attention shifts to the E-Pac with multiple tropical systems rolling up the Baja. First is Hurricane Priscilla, which is currently off the southern tip of Baja and forecast to cross the northern Baja before moving into Sonora and AZ Fri/Sat. Its moisture gets scooped up by a Pacific trough and pushing through the Four Corners, bringing us a healthy amount of tropical moisture on Sat. Western areas are favored to see rain/storm chances. Any flash flood risk will depend on how deep the moisture is. The second tropical feature to watch for is a wave along the southern coast of Mexico, which is modeled to move parallel to the coast through the weekend, following a similar path to Priscilla. If this wave forms into Raymond, the upper high looks to be placed just right for it to give us another round of deep tropical moisture, maybe for several days next week. PWs will most likely be well above normal Sat-Mon and possibly into the middle of next week with a low risk of flash flooding if the precip is more convective in nature. Areas west of the RGV will again be favored to see storms and heavy rainfall with the second tropical remnants. Temperatures will be near or slightly below normal through Thu, then warming through Sat. Temps fall back to below average early next week with the expected increase in cloud cover and rain chances. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 536 AM MDT Wed Oct 8 2025 Lingering light shower activity continues to progress from SW to NE across the Rio Grande Valley into S Central NM/Otero co this morning. Along with that is plenty of cloud cover at all levels. Through 16Z expect SCT clouds below 060, with SCT-BKN mid clouds in the 090-130 height range. Morning shower will continue to dissolve through 13-15Z. Mid-day will bring a mix of sky conditions, with higher heights and cig, well within VFR criteria. Winds will be SE in the 110-140 direction range, and become somewhat breezy in the 15-20kt range from 18 to 03Z. There are slight chances of aftn/eve shower and storm development, but most of those will be over area mountains and northern lowlands, with KTCS having the better chances to be impacted, and very slight risk for KDMN, KLRU, and KELP. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1212 AM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025 Fire weather will not be a big concern over the next week with a persistent east-southeast flow through the end of the week keeping RH`s in the 20s and 30s. There will be some scattered showers and storms through Wednesday followed by dry weather for Thu/Fri. The breakdown of an upper ridge will bring a surge of moisture from the west going into the weekend and early next week with some widespread wetting rains expected along with higher RH`s and cooler temperatures. Winds over the I-10 corridor may be a concern through Friday with sustained speeds of 15-30mph possible, especially west of Deming. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 68 84 67 87 / 10 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 59 79 57 81 / 10 0 0 0 Las Cruces 62 81 61 82 / 10 0 0 0 Alamogordo 60 81 59 83 / 10 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 43 58 42 61 / 20 10 0 0 Truth or Consequences 60 78 60 79 / 30 10 10 0 Silver City 57 74 56 76 / 30 10 10 0 Deming 65 83 63 84 / 20 10 0 0 Lordsburg 65 82 64 83 / 20 10 10 0 West El Paso Metro 67 83 67 84 / 10 0 0 0 Dell City 60 82 59 84 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 65 87 64 87 / 10 0 0 0 Loma Linda 59 76 58 77 / 10 0 0 0 Fabens 65 85 64 86 / 10 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 65 82 64 82 / 10 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 64 81 63 82 / 10 0 0 0 Jornada Range 61 80 61 81 / 10 10 0 0 Hatch 62 83 62 84 / 10 10 0 0 Columbus 64 84 65 85 / 10 0 0 0 Orogrande 60 79 60 81 / 10 0 0 0 Mayhill 48 67 47 71 / 20 10 0 0 Mescalero 47 70 47 72 / 20 10 0 0 Timberon 47 67 46 69 / 20 10 0 0 Winston 51 69 51 72 / 30 20 10 0 Hillsboro 58 77 58 79 / 30 10 10 0 Spaceport 59 79 59 80 / 20 10 10 0 Lake Roberts 53 74 52 77 / 30 20 10 10 Hurley 58 77 57 78 / 20 10 10 0 Cliff 60 82 60 84 / 20 10 10 10 Mule Creek 57 78 57 80 / 30 20 10 10 Faywood 59 75 59 77 / 30 10 10 0 Animas 65 83 64 84 / 20 10 0 0 Hachita 63 82 63 83 / 10 10 10 0 Antelope Wells 62 83 61 84 / 10 10 0 0 Cloverdale 61 79 60 81 / 20 10 10 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...14-Bird