Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
238 FXUS64 KEPZ 171659 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1059 AM MDT Thu Jul 17 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1100 AM MDT Thu Jul 17 2025 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon, with better coverage across western New Mexico this weekend. Impacts from storms may include heavy rainfall with localized flash flooding, small hail, gusty outflow winds, and blowing dust. - Near normal late July temperatures, lowland highs in the upper nineties && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1100 AM MDT Thu Jul 17 2025 Monsoonal upper high remains fixed over the Central Atlantic and extending east over the Gulf states today, with a steady flow of moisture out of the south over southern New Mexico and far west Texas. Two upper lows can be seen on satellite water vapor imagery, one over northeast Mexico and the other off the coast of Baja California. Minimal synoptic forcing is present, lacking wind shear aloft and cloud layer mean flow less than 15 knots. This morning`s sounding also indicates greater influence from the Atlantic high, with weak subsident flow at 400 mb eating away at available instability. Moisture profile shows surface dewpoints in the lower 50s and PW values 1.0-1.3" across the forecast area today. Slightly higher moisture exists across SE New Mexico and W Texas, where I expect thunderstorm coverage to be a bit higher this evening. ...TODAY AND TONIGHT... Current visible satellite shows a layer of clouds over the southern New Mexico Rio Grande valley. Storms chances this afternoon will rely on clearing, which looks to be best over Hudspeth County currently. Scattered (50-60%) showers and thunderstorms beginning over the Sacramento Mountains and Hudspeth/Culberson counties in far west Texas. Highly outflow-induced, mesoscale-forced showers this evening, with the best chances across Otero/El Paso/Hudspeth counties. Most (if not all) storms will be non-severe but could result in gusty winds and brief downpours. Areas west of the Rio Grande will see more isolated, low-coverage (10-20%) storms today. Rain chances ending prior to midnight tonight, with partly cloudy skies overnight. ...FRIDAY... Deepest plume of moisture begins a westward shift on Friday, mostly due to the overall retrograding of the monsoonal high. Thus, this looks to be the best area wide storm chances along the Rio Grande valley. Scattered hit-and-miss (50-60%) storms expected with localized flooding threats. Again likely non- severe due to the lack of upper level support, but better coverage due to numerous small-scale outflow boundaries forcing new showers. ...THIS WEEKEND... Better storm coverage across western New Mexico this weekend as the plume of deepest moisture shifts westward. Best chances will be mostly west of the Rio Grande, in particular Grant/Hidalgo Counties. Texas counties may end up completely dry. ...NEXT WEEK... Upper high makes a full retrograde over the south-central US by early next week, further suppressing storm severity but with moisture still hanging around, can`t completely rule out rain chances each afternoon next week. Coverage will be scattered over mountains and more isolated across the desert lowlands. This will also keep temperatures near normal for late July, with lowland highs in the upper 90s each day. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1100 AM MDT Thu Jul 17 2025 VMC currently with prevailing winds 210-240 at 05-10 knots and skies SCT-BKN130. Developing SCT090CB across SE NM and W TX afternoon after 19Z and scattered TSRA through the corridor all evening long. Chance of direct TS impacts at KELP between 23-02Z, with gusty outflow winds to 25 knots and brief TSRA possible. Skies generally SCT-BKN090CB this evening, FEW100 across W NM. Storm chances ending after 04Z tonight, with skies SCT-BKN120 and surface winds 140-190 AOB 6 knots overnight. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1100 AM MDT Thu Jul 17 2025 Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph and min RH 30-40% today with the primary fire threat focused around thunderstorm hazards. Scattered thunderstorms over LNF this afternoon, lower coverage across GNF. Good vent rates across western NM. Scattered showers and thunderstorms area wide on Friday, with gusty winds and localized flooding possible between 2-8 PM. Storm chances continue this weekend with the highest chances across GNF and western NM. No major shifts in the weather pattern next week, with daily afternoon storm chances, near normal temperatures, and light prevailing flow. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 77 97 75 98 / 50 40 50 20 Sierra Blanca 68 91 66 92 / 50 40 30 20 Las Cruces 71 93 68 94 / 60 50 60 20 Alamogordo 71 94 69 95 / 40 50 30 30 Cloudcroft 51 70 51 72 / 30 80 30 60 Truth or Consequences 71 92 70 93 / 50 60 60 60 Silver City 63 86 63 86 / 50 70 70 90 Deming 71 96 69 96 / 50 60 70 40 Lordsburg 69 92 68 92 / 40 70 70 80 West El Paso Metro 77 94 74 95 / 50 40 50 20 Dell City 72 95 71 97 / 20 30 10 10 Fort Hancock 75 97 74 99 / 50 40 30 20 Loma Linda 69 88 68 90 / 40 40 40 20 Fabens 74 96 73 97 / 50 30 40 10 Santa Teresa 74 94 71 94 / 60 40 60 20 White Sands HQ 75 94 73 95 / 50 50 60 30 Jornada Range 71 93 69 94 / 50 60 60 40 Hatch 71 95 69 97 / 50 70 70 50 Columbus 74 95 71 95 / 60 60 70 30 Orogrande 71 91 70 92 / 40 50 40 20 Mayhill 57 80 57 82 / 30 70 30 50 Mescalero 57 80 57 83 / 30 80 30 60 Timberon 56 78 56 80 / 30 60 30 40 Winston 58 84 58 85 / 50 70 60 80 Hillsboro 66 91 64 92 / 50 70 70 70 Spaceport 68 93 67 93 / 50 60 60 50 Lake Roberts 58 86 58 87 / 50 80 70 90 Hurley 64 89 64 90 / 40 70 70 80 Cliff 66 93 67 93 / 40 70 60 80 Mule Creek 63 90 64 89 / 40 70 60 80 Faywood 66 88 65 89 / 50 80 70 80 Animas 69 92 69 92 / 40 70 80 80 Hachita 69 91 67 92 / 50 70 80 70 Antelope Wells 69 91 68 90 / 50 80 80 80 Cloverdale 66 86 65 85 / 40 80 80 80 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt