Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 170844
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
244 AM MDT Sat May 17 2025
...New DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Breezy this afternoon, then windy again Sunday/Monday with
areas of blowing dust and critical fire danger.
- Dry weather through the week ahead as lowland temperatures
warm to the upper nineties by Memorial Day weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 AM MDT Sat May 17 2025
Waking up to plenty of high clouds still overhead. We should see
more breaks in cloud coverage later today, with mostly sunny skies
by the afternoon hours. Temperatures will be right near normal
for mid-May with lowland highs in the upper 80s to 90 degrees.
We begin yet another round of strong winds today, which will
continue through the weekend and into Monday as southwest flow
aloft increases and a series of upper waves move across the
Southern Rockies. Prevailing weather pattern shows a longwave
trough over the Western U.S. and two jet streaks rounding the
base of the system Sunday and Monday. Timing is good for gusty
afternoon winds both days, which will include blowing dust and
low visibility in places.
For today, breezy southwest winds will cover most of southern New
Mexico and far west Texas. Sustained speeds 15 to 25 mph with
gusts around 40 mph will be most common. This will keep us below
Wind Advisory criteria and thus no wind headlines today. Dust
models show a few plumes of dust being picked up between 2-5PM
today, aimed mostly at El Paso and Dona Ana/Luna Counties. No
zone-based dust headlines at this time. Any Dust Advisories will
be issued ad-hoc today as dust coverage looks to be patchy and not
widespread.
First shortwave is timed to round the trough base and cut through
the heart of New Mexico Sunday morning, with a 70-knot jet streak
at 500 mb. Once again, forecast winds keep the region just below
Wind Advisory criteria at this time, but we really don`t need it
for dust hazards. WSW winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 50 mph over
high terrain and east slopes. Blowing dust will likely be more
dense and greater coverage than Saturday, with high fire danger
area wide due to the dry air. Used a blend of NBM75 and CONS MOS
to increase forecast winds slightly these days. This blend has
verified quite well this season with previous wind events.
Sunday and Monday look quite similar in regards to afternoon peak
winds. Synoptically, Sunday will feature a deeper lee surface low
but further away (987 mb over E CO). Monday`s surface low is
closer to us due to forcing from a High Plains cold front, but
weaker in intensity (992 mb over NW TX). These factors mostly
cancel each other out and result in similar wind speeds both days.
Secondary jet streak crosses southern New Mexico Monday
afternoon, again producing near-Advisory level winds. Wind
direction will be slightly more westerly Monday, which may help
alleviate dust concerns somewhat. Still, expect areas of dust and
lower afternoon visibility, especially for west Texas.
Upper low finally exits next Tuesday, ushering in a pattern
change. Much quieter weather is expected the rest of next week,
with lighter winds and continued dry conditions. Building high
pressure aloft will induce a warming trend, which indicates a
warm Memorial Day weekend. Forecast models are showing lowland
highs in the upper 90s, and I would not be surprised to see El
Paso`s first 100 degree day next weekend. Climate average first
triple digit high for El Paso is May 31st, so it wouldn`t be
unusual.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1013 PM MDT Fri May 16 2025
VFR conditions expected through the period with skies BKN250
through the night, becoming SCT250 during the morning and
eventually SKC to FEW250 during the afternoon. Winds generally
light at 5-10 knots during the overnight and morning. Winds will
increase during the late morning and afternoon hours. An AWW is in
effect from 20Z-03Z for KELP with SW winds of 20-25 knots and
gusts to 30-35 knots. With that comes the possibility of blowing
dust, isolated instance of 1-3 mile VIS restrictions possible
during the afternoon.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 230 AM MDT Sat May 17 2025
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY FOR
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS...
Increasing southwest flow this afternoon combined with very dry
air will create critical fire danger for the region. Southwest
winds 15 to 25 mph today with min RH 5-10%. Wind speeds reach Red
Flag thresholds for LNF/Sacramento Mtns this afternoon, but will
likely stay just below criteria for GNF and western NM. RH
recovery will be very poor tonight with continued southwest flow.
Wind speeds increase Sunday and Monday and will warrant Red Flags
area wide. Sustained speeds of 20 to 30 mph with peak afternoon
gusts around 45 mph will be most common. Red Flag Threat Index
shows critical conditions across the mountain forests both
afternoons. RH will be slightly higher Monday, but still likely
to reach critical thresholds midday.
Fuel conditions are closer to normal after some late April
precipitation, but the next few days will accelerate the drying
of fine fuels. ERC values are slightly above normal. Forest
understory and grasslands will be most susceptible to fire start
and spread next few days. No precipitation is expected this week
through Memorial Day weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 91 62 90 61 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 87 57 87 55 / 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 86 49 84 50 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 86 54 84 51 / 10 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 62 41 60 40 / 10 0 0 0
Truth or Consequences 84 52 82 51 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 77 45 73 44 / 10 0 0 0
Deming 87 50 85 50 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 84 47 81 46 / 10 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 88 59 86 59 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 90 57 88 56 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 95 59 93 58 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 82 56 81 54 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 92 57 90 58 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 87 54 85 55 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 87 59 85 59 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada Range 85 50 83 49 / 10 0 0 0
Hatch 87 52 85 50 / 10 0 0 0
Columbus 88 54 86 55 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 85 52 83 53 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 74 47 72 47 / 0 0 0 0
Mescalero 73 46 71 42 / 10 0 0 0
Timberon 72 41 70 40 / 0 0 0 0
Winston 75 39 72 38 / 10 0 0 0
Hillsboro 82 49 79 46 / 10 0 0 0
Spaceport 83 47 81 45 / 10 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 77 41 72 39 / 10 0 0 0
Hurley 80 44 77 42 / 10 0 0 0
Cliff 83 44 79 42 / 10 0 0 0
Mule Creek 79 43 74 42 / 10 0 0 0
Faywood 80 47 76 47 / 10 0 0 0
Animas 85 49 84 48 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 84 50 82 48 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 84 49 82 50 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 78 47 78 47 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Sunday for Texas Fire
Weather Zone 055 El Paso County- Texas Fire Weather Zone
056 Hudspeth County.
Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
for Texas Fire Weather Zone 055 El Paso County- Texas Fire
Weather Zone 056 Hudspeth County.
NM...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Sunday for Capitan and
Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ- South Central Lowlands
and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ- Southwest Deserts
and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ- Southwest Mountains/Gila
NF/Apache NF/GLZ.
Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
for Capitan and Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ- South
Central Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ-
Southwest Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ-
Southwest Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ.
Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM MDT this
evening for Capitan and Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ-
South Central Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande
Valley/BLM/GLZ.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt