Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
588
FXUS64 KEPZ 222348
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
548 PM MDT Sun Jun 22 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon/evening,
mainly east of the Rio Grande Valley.
- Showers/thunderstorms becoming widespread over the entire
area Monday through Friday. Moisture peaks Monday and Tuesday,
with some heavy rain and local flooding possible.
- Below normal temperatures next week due to mostly cloudy
skies. Lowland highs 85 to 95 degrees.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1052 AM MDT Sun Jun 22 2025
We continue to gradually transition to the Monsoon pattern as the
upper highs over the eastern U.S. and central Mexico become more
prevalent next several days. Healthy batch of sub-tropical
moisture underneath the Mexican high will begin streaming north
over us as a Pacific trough moves over the Great Basin, working in
tandem with the highs to draw the moisture up to us. This
morning`s KELP sounding PW has already reached 1+ inch and PWs
will continue to increase over the entire CWA.
For today...CAM models and main ops models generally keep
convection east of the Rio Grande Valley. HRRR and GFS both show
significant outflow this evening forming in northern Mexico and
creating strong southerly winds over Dona Ana and El Paso
Counties. Have to watch this for blowing dust problems and late
thunderstorm formation. As the moisture gets distributed more
evenly Monday and Tuesday, expect higher POPs all areas. By Monday
evening and Tuesday, PWs range from 1.2 to 1.5 inches, well above
normal. Hence these two days show the best potential for heavy
rainfall/local flooding. Will let the next shift take one last
look at Flash Flood Watch potential for Monday/Tuesday.
Not much change in the pattern of strong southerly flow Wednesday
through Friday. Continued widespread showers/thunderstorms, but
PWs do decrease some so heavy rain/flood potential diminishes
some. By Friday trough is moved on and high pressure develops over
New Mexico. PWs diminish further and the high will likely provide
capping over the CWA. Having said that, the chance of rain will
still be around through Sunday, though mostly limited to the
mountains.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 540 PM MDT Sun Jun 22 2025
VFR conditions through Tuesday morning with SCT120 SCT250 for
KTCS, KDMN, and KLRU. Scattered -TSRA possible in vicinity of KELP
this evening through 05Z. Most storm development will remain east
and south of the terminal. Outflow from thunderstorms will
strengthen southerly winds over KELP this evening, some blowing
dust may occur. Calmer conditions will develop after 05Z through
to 14Z Tuesday morning. More widespread thunderstorm development
expected from the Rio Grande valley eastward Monday afternoon and
Monday night.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1052 AM MDT Sun Jun 22 2025
Elevated fire conditions persisting west of the Rio Grande Valley
with low humidity and dry fuels, but to the east the transition
to the Monsoon pattern continues to take shape, as higher humidity
and scattered thunderstorms develop this afternoon and evening.
Pea-size hail and wind gusts of 40-50 mph possible with these
storms. The moisture/high humidity will spread across all the fire
zones Monday and Tuesday, resulting in widespread thunderstorms
and the potential for heavy rainfall and local flooding,
especially over burn scars. Area wide showers/thunderstorms will
continue Wednesday through Friday, and likely even through the
weekend, but heavy rainfall potential should lessen some.
Min RH: Lowlands: 8-14% west of the Rio Grande Valley
today..18-25% to the east; increasing to 25-40% all lowlands
Monday through Friday. Mountains: 10% Gila/Black Range today
increasing to 20-35% Monday through Friday; Sacramento Mtns 25-35%
today increasing to 45-65% Monday through Friday. Vent rates very
good-excellent today and Monday becoming fair-good Tuesday through
Friday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 74 95 75 89 / 50 40 70 80
Sierra Blanca 65 82 65 82 / 80 70 80 70
Las Cruces 67 93 69 86 / 20 20 70 80
Alamogordo 67 91 67 86 / 20 50 70 90
Cloudcroft 51 67 49 63 / 30 70 70 90
Truth or Consequences 68 95 70 87 / 0 20 50 80
Silver City 59 87 61 83 / 0 20 40 70
Deming 67 96 70 91 / 10 20 60 80
Lordsburg 63 93 65 90 / 0 20 30 60
West El Paso Metro 74 92 75 86 / 50 40 70 80
Dell City 70 87 69 84 / 60 70 70 70
Fort Hancock 71 90 72 88 / 80 70 70 80
Loma Linda 67 84 66 79 / 60 60 70 80
Fabens 71 92 72 87 / 70 50 70 80
Santa Teresa 71 92 71 85 / 40 30 70 80
White Sands HQ 71 93 72 86 / 30 40 70 90
Jornada Range 65 93 67 87 / 20 30 70 90
Hatch 64 97 69 90 / 10 20 60 90
Columbus 71 95 72 91 / 20 20 70 80
Orogrande 69 90 68 83 / 40 50 70 80
Mayhill 56 77 55 72 / 30 80 70 90
Mescalero 54 79 54 73 / 20 70 60 90
Timberon 52 75 52 70 / 40 70 70 90
Winston 51 87 55 79 / 0 10 40 80
Hillsboro 60 94 62 86 / 0 20 50 90
Spaceport 62 93 65 87 / 10 20 60 90
Lake Roberts 54 89 57 84 / 0 20 40 80
Hurley 59 90 62 86 / 0 20 40 70
Cliff 58 93 62 91 / 0 10 20 60
Mule Creek 56 89 59 87 / 0 10 10 40
Faywood 61 90 65 84 / 0 20 50 80
Animas 63 94 65 90 / 0 30 30 60
Hachita 64 92 65 89 / 10 30 50 70
Antelope Wells 64 92 66 89 / 10 50 60 70
Cloverdale 61 87 64 85 / 10 40 40 60
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...04-Lundeen