Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
410 FXUS64 KEPZ 121138 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 438 AM MST Wed Nov 12 2025 ...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 412 AM MST Wed Nov 12 2025 - Expect continued dry conditions with a warming trend through Friday. - A storm system this weekend has trended towards a more northerly track. This will mean breezy west winds on Sunday, with scattered rain showers in Southwest New Mexico Sunday evening. Some high elevation snow may mix in as well. - Cooler temperatures arrive early next week, and additional chances for light precipitation may lurk next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1053 PM MST Tue Nov 11 2025 High pressure aloft to our south will keep us in a zonal pattern through the next 24 hours. The pattern will slowly become more amplified Thursday into Friday as troughing digs off the California coast. This trough will eject across the Four Corners region Sunday into Monday, but models continue to trend towards a drier solution as the bulk of the lift and moisture with this system looks to mainly stay to our north and west. In the meantime, we`ll continue to tack on 3-4 degrees to our afternoon high temperatures Wednesday and Thursday as the pattern amplifies, with ELP pushing the lower-80s Thu/Fri (about 10-15 degrees above normal across the area). Overnight lows will continue to drop into 40s across most rural areas, with 20s/30s in the usual cold spots. The precip threat looks to be mainly confined to SW New Mexico, including the Gila Region, as early as Sunday afternoon, but mainly focused on Sunday night into early Monday. High elevation rain/snow mix is possible, but this will likely be above any populated areas or highway passes, so impacts look to be minimal. Otherwise, expect breezy west to southwest winds on Sunday afternoon across the lowlands. Troughing off the west coast looks to maintain itself into the middle of next week, and additional precip chances may return next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 412 AM MST Wed Nov 12 2025 VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period with FEW250. Winds will continue to be light and variable through the morning, becoming slightly breezy (generally AOB 10KT) this afternoon. KDMN may be a bit breezier. No impacts expected. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 412 AM MST Wed Nov 12 2025 Continued above average warmth and dry conditions through Saturday. Critical min RHs today and tomorrow throughout much of the lowland desert areas. Mountain min RHs will be around 18-22% both afternoons. Can expect light 20 foot winds at 5-10 mph each afternoon becoming light and variable overnight. A little breezier Saturday due to a passing storm system which will shift 20 ft winds southwesterly at 10-15 mph across the area that afternoon. Min RHs improve slightly (17-20% in the lowlands and 25-35% in the mountains), rising just above critical thresholds in the lowlands Friday afternoon. Continued improvement of min RHs over the weekend in response to the passing storm system. Precipitation arrives in western areas early Sunday morning continuing through the remainder of the day but much of the rain chances stay along and west of the Rio Grande and the area mountains. Looks like now Sunday will be the windiest day where 20 ft winds will be 10-20 mph that afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 81 53 81 53 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 78 56 80 54 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 77 44 77 44 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 76 43 78 43 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 58 44 59 41 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 74 50 76 48 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 71 46 72 43 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 80 45 80 45 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 76 40 77 42 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 79 52 79 50 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 81 38 82 40 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 84 46 86 46 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 73 42 74 43 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 81 44 82 44 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 77 49 77 48 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 79 55 79 53 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 76 38 78 38 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 80 39 80 39 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 80 48 80 48 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 75 50 77 49 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 70 44 72 44 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 68 36 70 37 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 66 30 67 35 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 71 39 70 39 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 76 48 77 47 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 76 40 77 41 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 71 23 72 27 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 74 43 74 41 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 77 31 78 34 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 73 27 73 32 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 73 43 74 44 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 79 48 79 49 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 78 47 78 46 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 79 41 79 40 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 74 48 72 46 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...37-Slusher