Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
334 FXUS64 KEPZ 161655 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1055 AM MDT Sat Aug 16 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1050 AM MDT Sat Aug 16 2025 - Deeper monsoon moisture on southerly winds will persist through Monday, with scattered showers/thunderstorms and local flooding. - Moisture will diminish Tuesday through Thursday back to near normal levels, allowing isolated thunderstorms to continue for much of the area. - Even drier air expected for next Friday and Saturday, with storms limited mostly to the mountains. Temperatures warming to back above normal. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1050 AM MDT Sat Aug 16 2025 Deep, moist southerly flow continues for the area thanks to an UL high over the mid-Mississippi River Valley and a trough over the West Coast. The moist flow, enhanced by an MCV over Central Chihuahua, is producing expansive mid and high level clouds. This cloud coverage will likely reduce available instability and limit thunderstorm coverage. The latest runs of the HRRR keep trending downward in convective coverage. With that said, a few showers dot the radar this morning, so most areas have a least a low chance for some rain. Mountains and western areas, where it`s clear, will have the best shot at seeing thunderstorms. Highs today will be below normal thanks to the clouds. We remain in southerly flow for Sunday but without much UL support as high pressure continues to nose in from the east. Mainly scattered thunderstorms can be expected with the attendant risk for flash flooding. High pressure will reform over the Four Corners on Monday, and that will remain the pattern for the rest of the period. Initially easterly flow will allow sufficient moisture levels for daily thunderstorm chances, but by Thursday and especially into Friday and Saturday, dry air will begin to circulate in from the northeast limiting POPs on Thursday and removing them altogether for the lowlands on Friday and Saturday. The decrease in moisture and position of the high will allow temperatures to warm, but that warming will be limited by the air mass source region, coming from the Central Plains. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1050 AM MDT Sat Aug 16 2025 VFR conditions expected with BKN-OVC150+ and FEW-SCT100-150. Winds will generally be light, favoring the W to SW, with speeds topping out at 10-15 knots with the occasional gust to 20 kts. ISO to SCT SHRA/TSRA is expected to develop this afternoon into this evening with about a 20% chance for direct impacts at terminals. Gusty winds and +RA would be the main impacts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1050 AM MDT Sat Aug 16 2025 Minimal fire concerns are expected as monsoonal moisture remains in place throughout the period. Min RH values will range from 25-30 in the lowlands with drying expected by day 5, Thursday. This moisture will foster daily shower and thunderstorm chances. Winds will be very light outside of thunderstorms, topping out below 10 MPH. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 92 74 95 75 / 20 20 40 40 Sierra Blanca 86 66 89 67 / 60 40 70 40 Las Cruces 88 68 92 69 / 20 20 30 40 Alamogordo 90 68 92 69 / 40 10 30 20 Cloudcroft 66 50 68 51 / 60 10 60 20 Truth or Consequences 88 68 92 69 / 30 20 30 20 Silver City 84 60 86 63 / 40 20 40 30 Deming 92 68 95 69 / 30 20 20 40 Lordsburg 90 66 93 68 / 30 20 30 30 West El Paso Metro 89 72 92 73 / 20 20 30 40 Dell City 91 68 93 69 / 40 20 40 20 Fort Hancock 90 71 93 74 / 50 40 60 40 Loma Linda 83 66 86 67 / 30 20 50 30 Fabens 89 71 92 72 / 30 30 40 30 Santa Teresa 88 70 91 71 / 20 20 30 40 White Sands HQ 89 71 93 72 / 20 20 40 40 Jornada Range 88 67 91 69 / 20 20 30 40 Hatch 91 67 94 70 / 20 20 30 30 Columbus 90 70 93 71 / 30 30 20 40 Orogrande 87 68 91 69 / 30 20 40 30 Mayhill 76 56 80 57 / 70 10 60 20 Mescalero 76 55 80 55 / 60 10 60 20 Timberon 74 53 78 54 / 50 20 60 20 Winston 81 55 85 57 / 50 20 40 30 Hillsboro 88 63 92 63 / 40 20 30 30 Spaceport 88 65 91 67 / 20 20 30 30 Lake Roberts 84 55 86 57 / 50 20 60 30 Hurley 86 62 88 63 / 40 20 40 30 Cliff 92 63 94 66 / 40 20 40 20 Mule Creek 87 61 90 63 / 40 20 30 10 Faywood 84 63 88 65 / 40 20 40 40 Animas 89 66 92 69 / 50 30 30 40 Hachita 88 66 91 67 / 40 20 30 40 Antelope Wells 85 64 89 66 / 60 40 40 40 Cloverdale 81 61 84 64 / 70 40 50 40 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...34-Brown