Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
431 FXUS64 KEPZ 032318 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 518 PM MDT Fri Oct 3 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 338 PM MDT Fri Oct 3 2025 - Warm and dry weather through the weekend. Lowland highs in the upper eighties/lower nineties. - Breezy conditions Saturday. - Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms for the middle part of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1123 AM MDT Fri Oct 3 2025 An upper trough will continue to progress eastward over central California and Nevada today and will skirt by to the north of the are Saturday. Lee troughing in northeast CO will set up Saturday afternoon allowing for breezy southwest winds. Wind speeds will be around 10-20 mph sustained with gusts 20-30 mph. Blowing dust isn`t widely expected but dust sources have been very sensitive this year. If soils are dry enough, perhaps some patchy blowing dust is possible. The area will remain in southwesterly flow Sunday and Monday. A new upper low develops in central CA and NV Monday and Tuesday. Meanwhile, high pressure reestablishes itself over the Gulf of Mexico Tuesday funneling in moisture over the Borderland. This will allow for isolated to scattered thunderstorms that afternoon and even into Wednesday as somewhat similar conditions will continue to be in place. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 518 PM MDT Fri Oct 3 2025 Generally VFR through the period. SKC with SCT-BKN100 over higher terrain and west of the Cont Divide. Isolated BKN080CB -SHRA/-TSRA west of the Cont Divide until around 06Z. South/southeast winds 8-12G18 knots until 03Z, then variable AOB 7 knots. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1123 AM MDT Fri Oct 3 2025 Low end fire danger expected tomorrow afternoon due to breezy conditions (20 foot winds 10-17 mph) combined with min RHs of 18-24% (lowlands). Very similar min RHs expected Sunday afternoon but 20 foot wind speeds will be lowered (generally 5-10 mph but isolated locations could see 15 mph winds over the eastern portions of the Black Range. Min RHs will be 20-30% in the lowlands and 40-50% in the mountains Monday with dry conditions and light afternoon breezes. Rain chances return Tuesday and Wednesday which increases min RHs both days to 25-35% in the lowlands and 50-65% in the mountains. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 65 91 67 89 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 55 85 58 86 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 58 87 57 84 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 61 86 60 85 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 44 63 44 63 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 58 84 54 84 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 55 79 51 76 / 20 0 0 0 Deming 59 89 54 86 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 61 85 55 83 / 20 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 65 88 66 86 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 57 88 60 88 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 62 92 65 91 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 58 81 59 81 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 62 91 64 89 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 61 87 62 85 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 62 87 62 86 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 58 86 58 84 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 59 89 55 86 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 60 89 59 87 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 57 85 59 84 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 48 74 49 75 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 49 76 49 74 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 46 72 47 72 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 49 77 43 76 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 55 84 52 82 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 56 84 54 83 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 51 79 45 77 / 20 0 0 0 Hurley 55 82 50 80 / 10 0 0 0 Cliff 58 85 52 83 / 20 0 0 0 Mule Creek 55 80 48 78 / 20 0 0 0 Faywood 56 81 52 78 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 61 87 54 84 / 20 0 0 0 Hachita 59 86 54 84 / 10 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 60 86 54 85 / 10 0 0 0 Cloverdale 59 80 53 78 / 20 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...17-Hefner