Area Forecast Discussion
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925
FXUS64 KEPZ 151754
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1154 AM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1153 AM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025

 - Available monsoonal moisture and daytime heating will lead to
   daily rounds of afternoon and evening showers and
   thunderstorms, mainly west of the Divide through Wednesday then
   across the Borderland for the end of the week.

  -Impacts from storms include periods of heavy rainfall with
   localized flash flooding, mainly small hail, gusty outflow
   winds, and areas blowing dust.

 - With the general summertime thunderstorm weather pattern, daily
   high temperatures top out very near seasonal averages.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1153 AM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025

SHORT TERM...

Today, conditions are expected to be calmer across much of the CWA
as compared to yesterday. Lower level, high pressure build up across
southern NM will help limit early onset thunderstorm
development. As we head into the afternoon, the high pressure will
begin to give way to a small low level disturbance. The western
portion of the CWA (Hidalgo, Grant, Sierra Counties) will see the
greatest chance for scattered thunderstorms, especially along and
west of the Black Range. Areal flooding will be a concern today
for areas around the Trout Fire burn scar. Isolated thunderstorm
development is also expected for the Sacramento Mts in Otero Co.
Flooding remains a concern in the northern regions of the
mountains, mainly along burn scars (Salt, South Fork, Seven
Springs). Chances for severe weather is low due to lower levels of
CAPE and weak wind shear with conditions being a bit more
favorable over the western counties as previously mentioned. There
will be some gusty outflow winds and blowing dust over Hidalgo and
Luna counties is again a concern.

Wednesday we will see more of a break regarding thunderstorm
development. Higher pressure will move back in slightly, limiting
most chances of thunderstorm development to the Sacramentos and
Black Range. Temperatures will increase with the Metro seeing a
max temp of 97F to 99F. The lower Rio Grande Valley will also see
temperatures as high as 101F to 102F.

LONG TERM...

Thursday is when we will begin to see increased levels of
atmospheric moisture begin to push into the state due to a low
pressure system off the coast of Baja. Low level disturbances will
begin to push out any remaining high pressure allowing for
greater chances of development across the CWA. Heavy rainfall is
expected with these storms. Areal flooding and flash flooding may
occur with the most vulnerable places being burn scars and low
lying areas. Friday is when we expect to see the greatest amount
of precipitation. An upper level high will keep moisture capped
over the state as lower level disturbances continue to aid in
development. Heading into the weekend, conditions will begin to
calm down as high pressure forms over the Texas panhandle. This
will push much of that excess moisture to our west, mainly along
the NM/AZ border. Chances of thunderstorm development will remain
over the weekend, however the extent of coverage remains unclear
with the deep moisture tap getting shut off. Dry air intruding
into our CWA plus weak vertical forcing may hinder further
development. Temperatures will remain constant, staying within the
range of mid to upper 90s. Precipitation will aid in bringing
temperatures down slightly across the CWA. Sunday is when we will
begin to see temperatures increase as some drier air moves in with
the lower Rio Grande Valley reaching 100-104F for the first part
of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1153 AM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025

P6SM FEW-SCT100-120 SCT-BKN200-250 through much of the period.
Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop over the
Gila region and then move onto the lowlands by late afternoon west
of the Continental Divide. More outflow winds with gusts over
35KTS possible at KDMN which could produce some blowing dust and
visibilities of 1-3SM, dust will also be an issue further west to
the AZ border. An isolated storm over the Sacramento Mts can`t be
ruled out between 18Z-22Z. Winds south to west AOB 12KTS to start
period, but going into the overnight, west to northwest winds of
10-20G30KTS possible with strongest winds on eastern mountain
slopes.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1153 AM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Modest low level moisture will remain around the region through
the period with the main thunderstorm focus being west of the
Divide through Wednesday then areawide going into the end of the
week. Locally heavy rain will be possible with any storm as motion
will be very slow. Min RH`s will be mainly in the 20s and 30s
through Saturday before starting to drop back off early next week.
Gusty outflow winds will be possible each afternoon, but the
general wind flow is expected to be below 15 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  76  99  75  97 /  10  10  20  20
Sierra Blanca            67  91  66  89 /  10  20  30  40
Las Cruces               70  96  68  95 /  20  20  30  20
Alamogordo               69  96  68  94 /   0  20  10  40
Cloudcroft               53  73  50  71 /   0  30  10  70
Truth or Consequences    71  96  69  93 /  20  40  40  50
Silver City              62  87  59  86 /  50  80  60  80
Deming                   68  96  68  95 /  40  30  50  30
Lordsburg                68  92  67  92 /  60  60  70  60
West El Paso Metro       74  97  73  95 /  10  10  20  20
Dell City                70  97  70  95 /   0  10  10  20
Fort Hancock             74 101  73  97 /  10  20  30  30
Loma Linda               67  90  65  88 /  10  10  10  30
Fabens                   74 100  72  96 /  10  10  20  20
Santa Teresa             73  95  71  94 /  10  10  30  20
White Sands HQ           74  97  71  95 /  10  20  20  30
Jornada Range            67  96  68  95 /  10  20  30  40
Hatch                    69  99  69  96 /  20  30  40  40
Columbus                 71  96  71  95 /  30  30  50  20
Orogrande                69  94  69  92 /   0  10  10  30
Mayhill                  58  84  56  81 /   0  30  10  70
Mescalero                58  85  55  78 /  10  30  10  70
Timberon                 55  81  53  79 /   0  20  10  60
Winston                  58  88  56  85 /  30  60  50  80
Hillsboro                66  94  63  92 /  30  40  50  60
Spaceport                66  96  66  94 /  10  30  30  50
Lake Roberts             53  87  53  87 /  50  80  70  90
Hurley                   65  90  61  89 /  50  70  60  70
Cliff                    60  92  59  92 /  60  70  70  80
Mule Creek               56  88  57  87 /  50  80  70  80
Faywood                  65  90  62  89 /  40  60  50  70
Animas                   68  91  66  91 /  60  60  70  60
Hachita                  67  91  66  90 /  50  50  60  50
Antelope Wells           67  88  65  89 /  70  50  70  50
Cloverdale               62  83  61  84 /  70  60  70  70

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...26-Grzywacz