Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
239 FXUS64 KEPZ 181222 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 522 AM MST Tue Nov 18 2025 ...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 450 AM MST Tue Nov 18 2025 - Cooler temperatures today but still slightly above normal for mid-November. Scattered rain showers move in tonight. - Widespread rain showers and high elevation snow Wednesday into Thursday. Cooler Thursday and Friday. - Another storm system brings rain and mountain snow chances for Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 905 PM MST Mon Nov 17 2025 We will have an active weather pattern starting Tuesday night and continuing through the weekend. On Tuesday, we will have pleasant conditions with increasing clouds and high temperatures running around 5 degrees above average east of the Rio Grande but closer to average west of the river. By Tuesday night and Wednesday an approaching upper level storm system will increase our moisture, lower our clouds and give us a chance for rain. The upper level low will be slow to move out so we will continue to see a chance for rain through Thursday. Initially the system will be pretty warm and that will keep snow levels above 9,000 feet, so any presentation that falls, even in the mountains on Wednesday will be liquid. But then late Wednesday and into Thursday the cooler air will begin to move in and drop the snow levels, but at the same time the moisture and precipitation will begin to wrap up. So while I do think we will see some snow in area mountains, I don`t think we will have much time for the snow to accumulate much, so light snow totals are what are in the forecast for Thursday. Along with the clouds and precipitation chances we will have cooler air filter into the region, so high temperatures on Wednesday will be near average and even a few degrees below average on Thursday. For Friday and Saturday, we will be between system, so we will have drier conditions with our high temperatures continuing to run near or a little below average. Then on Sunday the next upper level trough will swing across the region. The extended models are coming into better agreement on the track of the second system (across northern Mexico), but they are still about 6 hours off on their timing, with the GFS being a little faster than the ECMWF. Much like our midweek system, next weekend`s upper level trough looks warm, so it will be mostly rain, but we could see some snow at the higher elevations of area mountains. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 450 AM MST Tue Nov 18 2025 VFR conditions prevail through the evening with CIGs dropping steadily into the overnight. Cirrostratus persists through the day as CIGs lower towards 050 later tonight with the upper low approaching from the west. -SHRA expected late in the period for most terminals, moving in from the south. Lower confidence in KTCS seeing rain during this forecast period. Other than some gusts to upper teens this afternoon at KTCS, winds remain AOB 8kts mainly from S. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 450 AM MST Tue Nov 18 2025 Fire weather concerns will be low through the forecast period. For today, winds will be light to modestly breezy from the south with increasing cloud cover into tonight. An upper low to the west pulls moisture northward tonight through Wednesday with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms expected ahead of the system. Western areas are favored to see lightning with better instability present on Wed, with chances lowering and spreading east on Thu. Enough cold air will accompany the disturbance to give high elevations a chance of snow with light accumulations possible through Thu. Winds again will be modest on Wed from the south, increasing a bit for Thu on the backside of the trough, shifting westerly. Drier conditions are forecast for Fri/Sat. Temperatures will be seasonable through Wed, then cooling off through Fri. Min RHs will be 25-45% today, then 35-55% in the lowlands and 50-80% in the mtns. Vent rates range from fair to very good today, then poor to good Wed. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 54 69 52 64 / 30 30 70 60 Sierra Blanca 48 68 47 62 / 10 10 40 70 Las Cruces 49 64 45 58 / 30 40 80 60 Alamogordo 48 65 44 58 / 30 30 70 70 Cloudcroft 34 44 31 38 / 30 30 70 70 Truth or Consequences 48 61 45 56 / 20 50 80 60 Silver City 43 56 39 48 / 50 70 90 60 Deming 49 65 45 59 / 30 50 80 50 Lordsburg 48 63 45 55 / 40 50 80 40 West El Paso Metro 55 66 52 61 / 30 30 70 60 Dell City 48 70 47 65 / 10 10 40 60 Fort Hancock 55 75 52 69 / 20 20 40 70 Loma Linda 49 62 46 56 / 30 30 60 70 Fabens 54 71 52 65 / 20 20 50 60 Santa Teresa 52 65 49 60 / 30 30 70 60 White Sands HQ 53 66 50 59 / 40 40 70 70 Jornada Range 48 64 45 58 / 30 40 80 60 Hatch 50 66 47 60 / 30 50 80 60 Columbus 51 67 49 61 / 30 40 70 40 Orogrande 49 64 46 58 / 40 30 70 70 Mayhill 40 56 37 50 / 30 30 70 70 Mescalero 37 56 34 50 / 30 40 70 80 Timberon 36 53 34 46 / 30 30 70 70 Winston 37 55 35 48 / 20 50 80 60 Hillsboro 45 61 42 55 / 30 60 80 60 Spaceport 46 63 44 57 / 20 50 80 60 Lake Roberts 39 56 35 47 / 50 70 90 70 Hurley 43 58 39 51 / 50 60 80 60 Cliff 45 63 43 55 / 50 60 80 60 Mule Creek 41 59 39 50 / 50 60 80 60 Faywood 46 57 42 51 / 40 60 80 60 Animas 49 66 46 57 / 30 40 80 40 Hachita 48 64 45 57 / 30 40 80 40 Antelope Wells 48 65 45 57 / 20 40 70 30 Cloverdale 46 59 42 50 / 30 40 80 30 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...39-Aronson