357
FXUS64 KEPZ 191859
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1259 PM MDT Sat Oct 19 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR Severe Weather Potential east of Rio Grande
Valley... Issued at 1107 AM MDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Surface moisture and instability are increasing over eastern
areas late this morning, setting the stage for active weather in
the mid-late afternoon east of the Rio Grande, including El Paso.
The Storm Prediction Center has expanded the marginal risk for
severe weather further west to include all of the Rio Grande
Valley and the slight risk to include eastern Otero county. With
plenty of deep-layer shear, sufficient forcing, and decent
instability, large hail, damaging winds, and even a tornado are
possible if cloud bases drop low enough. Please be weather-aware
and move to an interior room or lowest level of a building if you
find yourself under a severe thunderstorm or tornado warning.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1224 PM MDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Strong to severe thunderstorms develop this afternoon and evening
east of the Rio Grande, capable of producing large hail, damaging
winds, and an isolated tornado. Less active weather is expected
elsewhere through the evening. Storm chances linger for eastern
areas on Sunday. For the rest of the period, warm and dry
conditions are expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1224 PM MDT Sat Oct 19 2024

The first (of many) line of thunderstorms is progressing through
the Tularosa Basin and has showed signs of broad rotation. The
amount of deep-layer shear is very impressive for our area and
this time of year (50-60kts of bulk) ahead of a cut-off low
centered in eastern AZ. The low is well south of where the models
had it a couple days ago, allowing a southerly tap of moisture to
reach eastern portions of the CWA. Veering with height along with
strong mid-level flow gives roughly the eastern half of the CWA
the potential for large hail and damaging winds this afternoon and
evening. With SBCAPE increasing to over 1000 J/kg by the evening,
strong and sustained updrafts are likely. A few supercells may
develop due to the abundant shear and if LCLs get low enough from
a surge of moist S inflow, a tornado may form, most likely in the
Sacs where dew points are well into the 50s. The convection leaves
the CWA late this evening to the northeast with a few showers
lingering over eastern areas overnight. Mesoscale updates will be
issued when necessary as the environment evolves later today.

For Sunday, more dry air underneath the low will fill in from the
west, pushing most of the moisture east. Shower and storm chances
linger east of the Rio Grande tomorrow afternoon and evening,
especially in Hudspeth county where the best surface moisture and
instability hang around. Strong winds and small hail are possible
in far eastern areas Sunday PM as indicated by SPC`s marginal
risk.

For the rest of the forecast, the cut-off low gets swept up into
the westerlies, taking it to the northeast and out of the region.
Rain chances return to near-zero on Monday, continuing through the
week under building high pressure aloft. Dry weather and warming
temperatures are expected through the workweek with highs
approaching 90 degrees in El Paso around midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1107 AM MDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Active weather expected over the next 12 hours as moisture is
pulled northward ahead of a cut-off low. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms have been ongoing this morning along
separate S-N oriented boundaries. As moisture and instability
increase this afternoon east of the Rio Grande, scattered storms
should develop with some strong/severe cells likely. KELP is most
likely to see direct impacts from the activity, followed by KLRU
and KTCS. KDMN should remain too far west outside of the best
instability. PROB30s have been added to indicate the most likely
time of direct TS impacts with prevailing VCSH into the evening
except for KDMN. Large hail, damaging winds, and even a tornado
are possible. Amendments will probably be needed as we monitor
radar and satellite trends through the PM. Activity clears out to
the east tonight. Winds will gust to near or above 20kts through
the afternoon from S-SE, subsiding overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1224 PM MDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Fire weather concerns remain low through the forecast period.
Scattered thunderstorms develop into the evening east of the RGV
due to the nearby disturbance, capable of producing large hail,
damaging winds, and an isolated tornado. The activity clears out
tonight to the east. For Sunday, lingering showers and storms are
expected across northeastern areas as moisture continues to be
pulled north ahead of the system. Rain chances diminish by Monday
and stay near-zero through the week under high pressure aloft.
Dry and warm conditions are forecast for the workweek with light
winds expected.

Min RHs will be 20-30% west of the RGV tomorrow, 25-60% east; then
15-35% area-wide. Vent rates range from good to excellent on
Sunday, then poor to fair.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  62  84  58  82 /  60  20  20   0
Sierra Blanca            56  78  54  79 /  50  10  30   0
Las Cruces               54  80  48  79 /  50  20  10   0
Alamogordo               54  77  50  76 /  70  50  30   0
Cloudcroft               40  55  37  57 /  80  50  40   0
Truth or Consequences    49  76  45  74 /  40  30   0   0
Silver City              43  71  43  73 /  10  10   0   0
Deming                   47  80  43  80 /  20  10   0   0
Lordsburg                42  77  41  78 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       61  83  58  80 /  60  10  20   0
Dell City                58  81  54  81 /  70  30  40   0
Fort Hancock             60  86  56  85 /  60  10  30   0
Loma Linda               56  76  53  74 /  70  20  30   0
Fabens                   60  86  56  82 /  60  10  20   0
Santa Teresa             57  81  52  78 /  60  20  20   0
White Sands HQ           58  81  55  78 /  60  30  20   0
Jornada Range            53  79  46  76 /  60  30  10   0
Hatch                    50  81  43  79 /  40  20  10   0
Columbus                 50  81  47  79 /  20  10   0   0
Orogrande                56  78  51  74 /  70  40  30   0
Mayhill                  45  65  42  70 /  80  50  40   0
Mescalero                43  67  40  67 /  70  50  40   0
Timberon                 43  63  40  64 /  80  50  40   0
Winston                  36  68  33  69 /  30  20   0   0
Hillsboro                43  76  41  76 /  30  20   0   0
Spaceport                48  77  42  76 /  50  30  10   0
Lake Roberts             39  69  36  74 /  20  10   0   0
Hurley                   41  73  40  76 /  10  10   0   0
Cliff                    38  76  37  81 /  10   0   0   0
Mule Creek               34  68  34  73 /  10   0   0   0
Faywood                  44  73  43  74 /  20  10   0   0
Animas                   43  78  43  80 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  43  79  41  79 /  10   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           45  81  45  80 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               45  73  45  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...39-Aronson