Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
839 FXUS64 KEPZ 292326 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 426 PM MST Sat Nov 29 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 421 PM MST Sat Nov 29 2025 - A cold front will push in early Sunday morning, bringing easterly breeziness and temperatures becoming below normal. - Dry conditions, gentle warming, and light afternoon breezes through midweek. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 943 AM MST Sat Nov 29 2025 Dry weather conditions expected through Wednesday as a progressive westerly flow pattern keeps moisture out of the area and with weather systems tracking north of the region with little to no impact. For today, mild weather conditions and above normal temperatures will persist the rest of today into the evening hours. A cold front will push into the area from the east late evening into early Sunday morning. Winds will shift around to the east in the morning hours and will be windy and gusts along the west facing slopes of local area mountains. Wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible for portions of northwest El Paso county and other similar areas in the morning hours. Temperatures on Sunday will cool significantly down to near or slightly below normal values by Sunday afternoon. The front will retreat back to the east Sunday night in response to strengthening westerly flow in advance of an open low pressure trough moving through northern New Mexico on Monday morning. The track of the system will keep it north of the southern New Mexico and far west Texas for no real impact or chances for precipitation locally. After the weak low pressure trough exits the region the progressive westerly flow will continue with temperatures rebounding back up above normal by a few degrees with light afternoon breezes each day through Wednesday. The long range weather pattern becomes more uncertain by Wednesday night as another stronger low pressure system drops down into the desert southwest. There is a high variability between models run to run and between the ensemble members, resulting in a very uncertain forecast for Wednesday night and the remainder of the week. That being said, models project a low chance of lowland rain showers and mountain snow to occur as early as late Wednesday night and continuing into Thursday. Depending on the model, rain chances may continue into next Friday. As has been happening with previous weather systems this month, I suspect that chances for precip will diminish as subsequent model runs converge on a realistic and mostly likely a drier solution later in the week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 421 PM MST Sat Nov 29 2025 VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period. Winds shift E-SE overnight behind a cold front as winds remain AOB 8kts. Occasional gustiness possible after the wind shift into tomorrow morning. Other than some cirrus passing overhead, SKC expected. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 943 AM MST Sat Nov 29 2025 No significant fire weather concerns are forecast through the period. Temperatures will remain 5 to 10 degrees above normal for this afternoon while minimum RH values drop into the lower 20s. Light winds will lead to poor to fair venting. Later this evening a cold front will push in from the east, which will lower temperatures down closer to normal for Sunday afternoon as well as bring improvements to minimum RH values to around 30%. Our next chance for precipitation (20-30%) is Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 58 41 65 40 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 51 32 61 32 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 55 33 60 32 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 57 35 59 30 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 41 27 38 21 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 55 35 56 32 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 55 33 53 30 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 60 33 63 32 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 60 34 59 32 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 57 41 63 40 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 51 26 65 28 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 61 38 69 37 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 49 36 57 35 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 59 37 66 37 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 55 36 62 35 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 56 39 62 39 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 56 31 60 30 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 60 31 62 30 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 60 38 65 37 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 53 33 59 31 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 52 30 52 24 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 51 29 49 24 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 44 25 48 22 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 54 28 51 22 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 58 33 58 31 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 55 30 57 27 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 57 29 53 25 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 55 31 56 29 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 62 30 60 27 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 59 30 55 27 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 53 33 56 32 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 65 38 62 34 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 61 36 62 32 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 65 38 64 36 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 60 39 57 39 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...39-Aronson