Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
312 FXUS64 KEPZ 111128 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 428 AM MST Tue Nov 11 2025 ...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 427 AM MST Tue Nov 11 2025 - Dry conditions with a warming trend through Friday with no significant weather impacts. - A late-week storm system brings breezy conditions for Friday through the weekend, a chance of rain and high elevation snow showers Saturday and Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 924 PM MST Mon Nov 10 2025 A high pressure ridge over the southwest part of the country will maintain a dry and quiet weather pattern over the region through Thursday. Skies will be clear and sunny. Winds will be west to southwest at around 10 mph during the day, becoming light and variable at night. Temperatures will be on a warming trend through Thursday with afternoon high temperatures reaching 8 to 12 degrees above normal by Friday. The weather pattern will significantly change and become more active on Friday and this weekend as a deepening Pacific low pressure system moves onto the west coast and eventually into the local area by Saturday, generating breezy conditions and a moderate chance of rain and a rain snow mix at higher elevations. Long range models are in general agreement on the movement of this system, but have been making the system less progressive and delaying its entry into the state more towards Saturday and Sunday. An analysis of model ensemble data indicate a wide variability between members that will make resolving the exact timing more uncertain for this weekend. The scenario for this system as currently projected by forecast models has a band of moisture generating rain showers out ahead of the system moving into the Bootheel and Gila Region sometime Friday night and spreading eastward across the area on Saturday. Snow levels will still be above 9000 feet at this point with little if any snow for the higher elevations. After the initial rain band moves through the area, current models have the core of the system moving through southern and central New Mexico Saturday night into Sunday. The colder air associated with the core of the low will lower snow levels down to 7500 feet for the Gila Region and Sacramento mountains with a mix of rain and snow. Snow accumulations at higher elevations still look to be in the 1 to 3 inch range for now. The lowlands will only see rain showers with a brief occasional thunderstorm possible. Daytime temperatures will see a 15 to 20 degree drop for the weekend as colder associated with the system moves into the area. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 427 AM MST Tue Nov 11 2025 VFR conditions through the period, with SKC-FEW250. Surface winds variable AOB 7 knots this morning, becoming west 7-10 knots this afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 427 AM MST Tue Nov 11 2025 Continued dry through Friday, with temperatures warming back to well above normal, including near-record temperatures Thursday and Friday. A Pacific storm system moves in Saturday and Sunday, with breezy winds and a chance of lowland rain and high elevation rain-snow mix. Min RH: Lowlands 12-20% through Friday, increasing to 25-40% Saturday and Sunday. Mountains 15-30% through Friday, increasing to 40-60% Saturday and Sunday. Vent rates poor-fair through Thursday, becoming fair-good Friday through Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 44 78 47 80 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 39 74 41 77 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 37 75 39 76 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 36 74 36 75 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 33 62 34 61 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 40 74 41 74 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 40 72 42 70 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 36 79 38 80 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 36 76 40 76 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 45 76 48 78 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 33 77 36 80 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 41 81 44 83 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 43 70 46 73 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 39 78 44 80 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 38 75 42 77 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 44 76 48 78 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 29 75 29 76 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 35 79 35 80 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 39 79 43 80 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 35 73 36 75 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 37 73 39 73 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 34 70 36 70 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 33 68 34 68 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 31 71 32 72 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 42 76 43 77 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 32 74 32 75 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 28 72 32 72 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 37 74 39 73 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 29 78 31 77 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 26 73 28 73 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 41 74 42 73 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 38 78 41 79 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 35 78 39 78 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 40 79 43 79 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 45 73 47 73 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...17-Hefner