Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
194 FXUS64 KEPZ 011133 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 433 AM MST Mon Dec 1 2025 ...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 430 AM MST Mon Dec 1 2025 - Dry conditions, gentle warming, and afternoon breezes through midweek. - A storm system brings a low to medium chance of lowland rain and mountain snow showers going into Thursday. - Dry and breezy conditions will return going into Friday and Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 950 PM MST Sun Nov 30 2025 Some minor changes from previous forecast packages during the Day 4/5 period. Several weak troughs will move across the Intermountain west through the period with very little, if any weather impacts expected. All in all, generally quiet and fair weather conditions can be expected through the first week of December with seasonal temperatures and low-end chances of precipitation on Thursday and Friday. On Monday (Day 1), the first trough will quickly move east across the Central Rockies with very little changes in sensible weather across the Borderland Region. That said, the east winds we saw on Sunday will veer to the west, allowing for temperatures to warm slightly back to or slightly above the seasonal average for December 1st. High temperatures will top out in the low 60s across the desert lowlands. The westerly flow regime aloft will remain in place across the Desert SW on Tuesday and Wednesday (Day 2 & 3) leading to light afternoon breezes and afternoon temperatures in the middle to upper 60s across the desert lowlands. With drier air in place at the surface and winds becoming light and variable overnight, overnight low temperatures Tuesday morning will be near or below freezing across most of the forecast area. Low temperatures for El Paso proper will stay clear of dropping below freezing, with lows in the middle 30s. By Thursday (Day 4), the next upper trough will dive southeast across the Great Basin and Four Corners/Central Rockies vicinity. There still remains some minor discrepancies between model/ensemble guidance with regards to how deep/strong this upper level system will be, along with exact track and timing. 30.18 GFS guidance has said system slightly strong, with more moisture to work with. 30.12 ECMWF guidance is not as bullish in terms of strength, along with being more progress and not having as much moisture associated with it. That being said, looking at GFS/ECMWF respected ensemble suites, along with NBM guidance, probabilities of seeing measurable precipitation (>/= 0.01") is low (20-40 percent) across the desert lowlands along and south of I-10 corridor. Areas north, especially over the mountains have medium confidence of seeing precipitation during the Thursday timeframe with greatest chances over the Sacramento Mtns. Low levels through the duration of this system will be above 7500 ft where light snow can be expected. NBM probs show 20- 30 percent chance of > 1.0" of snow over the Sacramento Mtns. The upper level flow regime remains progressive. However, the upper level storm system track remains to the north over the Central/Northern Rockies with conditions remaining dry through the weekend && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 430 AM MST Mon Dec 1 2025 Light and variable winds will become W to NW`ly (270-300) by 18z with speeds generally AOB 10 knots along with ISO gusts up to 20 knots. Skies will be FEW-SCT250. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 430 AM MST Mon Dec 1 2025 The colder air that arrived Sunday night / Monday morning will retreat back to the east today allowing temperatures to warm back above normal beneath some high clouds. In spite of the warming temperatures min RH values will only drop into the mid to upper 20s. Winds will be light, topping out around 5 to 10 MPH with fair to good venting. The pattern changes little through Wednesday with only about a 5 MPH increase in winds forecast for Wednesday. An upper level system will approach the area for Thursday bringing with it cooler temperatures and a modest increase in moisture. Prevailing forecast has low POPs (20-30%) but latest forecast guidance continues to trend drier. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 66 44 67 46 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 63 38 64 37 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 61 36 61 40 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 60 37 61 39 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 40 28 41 24 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 61 35 60 37 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 56 32 53 35 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 65 35 64 39 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 61 33 61 38 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 64 43 65 47 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 66 37 67 35 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 71 42 71 44 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 58 40 59 38 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 68 42 69 44 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 63 37 64 43 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 63 43 64 45 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 61 35 61 39 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 65 34 64 39 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 67 40 67 45 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 61 35 61 39 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 55 33 54 25 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 50 30 52 26 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 49 28 50 25 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 56 28 54 29 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 62 35 61 37 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 61 31 61 35 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 56 28 53 31 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 59 32 57 34 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 62 30 60 35 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 58 29 55 32 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 58 35 56 37 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 65 36 64 41 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 64 36 64 42 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 66 41 65 43 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 59 39 58 42 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...34-Brown