Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
636 FXUS64 KEPZ 031122 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 422 AM MST Wed Dec 3 2025 ...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 349 AM MST Wed Dec 3 2025 - A weak upper level disturbance will move across northern New Mexico Wednesday night into early Thursday, just grazing our area. Light rain and snow showers will favor the Gila Region and Sacramento Mountains, with just minor accumulations. - Dry conditions, typical breezes, and daily warming return for this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1009 PM MST Tue Dec 2 2025 A weak trough, clearly visible on water vapor imagery extending from north-central NM into SW Arizona, will cross the area overnight with little fanfare. Satellite imagery and obs show scattered mid-level clouds developing ahead of this system, which may help hold temperatures up a few degrees. A stronger shortwave trough will move into northern Arizona Wednesday morning, then swing east across northern New Mexico by Thursday morning. This system has trended drier, and no longer looks like it will scoop up significant moisture. Still, there will be scattered rain and snow showers that will move into the Gila region Wednesday night, and on into the Sacramentos by Thursday morning. Some light snow accumulations will be possible, but generally under 1 inch. Behind that system, it will be back to benign weather, and we`ll have to look well beyond the forecast period for out next potential disappointment. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 420 AM MST Wed Dec 3 2025 VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds begin light and variable, but will increase to the 10 to 15 knot range from the west (250 to 270) by around 18z through sunset with gusts up to 25 knots. Skies will start off SCT-BKN050-100 but will clear through the day with just high clouds before mid level clouds return again late in the period with areas of virga or sprinkles. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 420 AM MST Wed Dec 3 2025 Wednesday will feature temperatures above normal with mid and high clouds. Minimum RH values will drop into the lower to middle 30s. An approaching storm system will increase winds some too with speeds topping out 10 to 15 MPH from the west. This increase in winds will foster very good to excellent venting. Later tonight and into Thursday morning, higher elevations, especially the Sacramento Mountains will see a low chance for showers. Any accumulations will be light. Temperatures will also be cooler on Thursday, but a warming and drying trend will begin for Friday lasting into next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 44 59 42 61 / 10 10 0 0 Sierra Blanca 39 54 38 58 / 10 0 10 10 Las Cruces 38 54 33 56 / 10 0 0 0 Alamogordo 35 54 32 55 / 30 10 0 0 Cloudcroft 24 35 26 36 / 40 10 0 0 Truth or Consequences 36 52 29 53 / 10 0 0 0 Silver City 31 51 29 51 / 20 0 0 0 Deming 37 57 31 60 / 10 10 0 0 Lordsburg 35 56 32 56 / 20 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 44 58 39 60 / 10 10 0 0 Dell City 34 54 27 61 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 43 63 35 66 / 10 10 10 10 Loma Linda 39 51 35 53 / 10 10 0 0 Fabens 43 61 38 63 / 10 10 0 0 Santa Teresa 41 57 38 59 / 10 10 0 0 White Sands HQ 41 56 39 58 / 10 10 0 0 Jornada Range 34 54 28 56 / 10 10 0 0 Hatch 36 57 30 60 / 10 0 0 0 Columbus 41 59 37 61 / 0 10 0 0 Orogrande 37 54 34 56 / 20 10 0 0 Mayhill 24 47 28 50 / 30 10 0 0 Mescalero 27 45 27 47 / 50 10 0 0 Timberon 26 43 26 46 / 30 10 0 0 Winston 23 48 21 51 / 20 0 0 0 Hillsboro 33 52 31 56 / 10 0 0 0 Spaceport 33 53 30 55 / 20 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 25 50 13 52 / 30 10 0 0 Hurley 30 52 28 53 / 10 0 0 0 Cliff 28 57 23 58 / 20 10 0 0 Mule Creek 27 52 18 53 / 20 10 0 0 Faywood 34 51 29 54 / 10 10 0 0 Animas 37 58 34 58 / 20 0 0 0 Hachita 36 57 34 58 / 10 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 37 59 32 61 / 10 0 10 0 Cloverdale 39 54 36 54 / 10 0 10 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...34-Brown