Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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357 FXUS64 KEPZ 191859 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1259 PM MDT Sat Oct 19 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER... .MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR Severe Weather Potential east of Rio Grande Valley... Issued at 1107 AM MDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Surface moisture and instability are increasing over eastern areas late this morning, setting the stage for active weather in the mid-late afternoon east of the Rio Grande, including El Paso. The Storm Prediction Center has expanded the marginal risk for severe weather further west to include all of the Rio Grande Valley and the slight risk to include eastern Otero county. With plenty of deep-layer shear, sufficient forcing, and decent instability, large hail, damaging winds, and even a tornado are possible if cloud bases drop low enough. Please be weather-aware and move to an interior room or lowest level of a building if you find yourself under a severe thunderstorm or tornado warning. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 1224 PM MDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Strong to severe thunderstorms develop this afternoon and evening east of the Rio Grande, capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and an isolated tornado. Less active weather is expected elsewhere through the evening. Storm chances linger for eastern areas on Sunday. For the rest of the period, warm and dry conditions are expected. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1224 PM MDT Sat Oct 19 2024 The first (of many) line of thunderstorms is progressing through the Tularosa Basin and has showed signs of broad rotation. The amount of deep-layer shear is very impressive for our area and this time of year (50-60kts of bulk) ahead of a cut-off low centered in eastern AZ. The low is well south of where the models had it a couple days ago, allowing a southerly tap of moisture to reach eastern portions of the CWA. Veering with height along with strong mid-level flow gives roughly the eastern half of the CWA the potential for large hail and damaging winds this afternoon and evening. With SBCAPE increasing to over 1000 J/kg by the evening, strong and sustained updrafts are likely. A few supercells may develop due to the abundant shear and if LCLs get low enough from a surge of moist S inflow, a tornado may form, most likely in the Sacs where dew points are well into the 50s. The convection leaves the CWA late this evening to the northeast with a few showers lingering over eastern areas overnight. Mesoscale updates will be issued when necessary as the environment evolves later today. For Sunday, more dry air underneath the low will fill in from the west, pushing most of the moisture east. Shower and storm chances linger east of the Rio Grande tomorrow afternoon and evening, especially in Hudspeth county where the best surface moisture and instability hang around. Strong winds and small hail are possible in far eastern areas Sunday PM as indicated by SPC`s marginal risk. For the rest of the forecast, the cut-off low gets swept up into the westerlies, taking it to the northeast and out of the region. Rain chances return to near-zero on Monday, continuing through the week under building high pressure aloft. Dry weather and warming temperatures are expected through the workweek with highs approaching 90 degrees in El Paso around midweek. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1107 AM MDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Active weather expected over the next 12 hours as moisture is pulled northward ahead of a cut-off low. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms have been ongoing this morning along separate S-N oriented boundaries. As moisture and instability increase this afternoon east of the Rio Grande, scattered storms should develop with some strong/severe cells likely. KELP is most likely to see direct impacts from the activity, followed by KLRU and KTCS. KDMN should remain too far west outside of the best instability. PROB30s have been added to indicate the most likely time of direct TS impacts with prevailing VCSH into the evening except for KDMN. Large hail, damaging winds, and even a tornado are possible. Amendments will probably be needed as we monitor radar and satellite trends through the PM. Activity clears out to the east tonight. Winds will gust to near or above 20kts through the afternoon from S-SE, subsiding overnight. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1224 PM MDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Fire weather concerns remain low through the forecast period. Scattered thunderstorms develop into the evening east of the RGV due to the nearby disturbance, capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and an isolated tornado. The activity clears out tonight to the east. For Sunday, lingering showers and storms are expected across northeastern areas as moisture continues to be pulled north ahead of the system. Rain chances diminish by Monday and stay near-zero through the week under high pressure aloft. Dry and warm conditions are forecast for the workweek with light winds expected. Min RHs will be 20-30% west of the RGV tomorrow, 25-60% east; then 15-35% area-wide. Vent rates range from good to excellent on Sunday, then poor to fair. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 62 84 58 82 / 60 20 20 0 Sierra Blanca 56 78 54 79 / 50 10 30 0 Las Cruces 54 80 48 79 / 50 20 10 0 Alamogordo 54 77 50 76 / 70 50 30 0 Cloudcroft 40 55 37 57 / 80 50 40 0 Truth or Consequences 49 76 45 74 / 40 30 0 0 Silver City 43 71 43 73 / 10 10 0 0 Deming 47 80 43 80 / 20 10 0 0 Lordsburg 42 77 41 78 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 61 83 58 80 / 60 10 20 0 Dell City 58 81 54 81 / 70 30 40 0 Fort Hancock 60 86 56 85 / 60 10 30 0 Loma Linda 56 76 53 74 / 70 20 30 0 Fabens 60 86 56 82 / 60 10 20 0 Santa Teresa 57 81 52 78 / 60 20 20 0 White Sands HQ 58 81 55 78 / 60 30 20 0 Jornada Range 53 79 46 76 / 60 30 10 0 Hatch 50 81 43 79 / 40 20 10 0 Columbus 50 81 47 79 / 20 10 0 0 Orogrande 56 78 51 74 / 70 40 30 0 Mayhill 45 65 42 70 / 80 50 40 0 Mescalero 43 67 40 67 / 70 50 40 0 Timberon 43 63 40 64 / 80 50 40 0 Winston 36 68 33 69 / 30 20 0 0 Hillsboro 43 76 41 76 / 30 20 0 0 Spaceport 48 77 42 76 / 50 30 10 0 Lake Roberts 39 69 36 74 / 20 10 0 0 Hurley 41 73 40 76 / 10 10 0 0 Cliff 38 76 37 81 / 10 0 0 0 Mule Creek 34 68 34 73 / 10 0 0 0 Faywood 44 73 43 74 / 20 10 0 0 Animas 43 78 43 80 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 43 79 41 79 / 10 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 45 81 45 80 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 45 73 45 78 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...39-Aronson