Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
572 FXUS64 KEPZ 020507 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1007 PM MST Mon Dec 1 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 718 PM MST Mon Dec 1 2025 - Dry conditions, daily warming, and marginal afternoon breezes through midweek. - A minor storm system passes just to our north early Thursday. It will pass mostly dry, but brings a slight chance for light snow to the northern Gila region, and the northern Sacramento mountains Thursday. The region will see moderate cooling Thursday. - Dry conditions, marginally breezy afternoons, and daily warming return for this weekend and well into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 718 PM MST Mon Dec 1 2025 High pressure over the EPAC, west of the Baja, is keeping a deep and dry NW flow regime over the Southwest Deserts, with our area seeing dry air sweep out the lingering mid and high level moisture from yesterday`s east push. Skies have been becoming progressively clearer. This drier air, clearer skies, and slackening winds overnight, will make for a chilly night, with most locations (outside of the El Paso Urban Heat Island, and lower valley locations) seeing freezing temperatures tonight and Tuesday morning. Tuesday, we remain under the dry NW/W flow pattern, but begin to feel the effects of the next upper trough, as it starts to dig SE across the Great Basin. This will induce some surface troughing across E NM, and we will see winds shift back westerly, and become breezy in the afternoon. Winds won`t be strong, just getting up into the 10-15 mph range with some gusts 20-25 mph. Perfectly within the window of the term "breezy". Otherwise, we will see our temps creep upward a few degrees, slightly above the daily average, and skies will be dry and sunny. Wednesday, the upper level trough will sag south over the Four Corners region. As it approaches we will continue with slight warming in marginally westerly flow. However, the moisture will still be well to our north. We should see some increases in upper and mid level clouds, but no precipitation is expected over any part of our CWA. Wednesday night, into Thursday morning, the system will open up and shear across N NM. As it does we will be on the southern extent of the systems moisture and dynamics. The system is somewhat compact and moisture starved, and our region has no moisture to offer. Thus, we continue the trend of trimming POPs out and down, with only slight chances for rain/snow over northern extent of the Gila region and the Sacramento Mtns. The window for pcpn is short-lived, and the pcpn rates will be low, thus the rain/snow amounts will be low and spotty at best. It will be our coolest day of the week, but temperatures will only fall back the the average for the day as the storm passes. The storm system lifts away and moves east into the plains during the afternoon on Thursday, pulling dynamics and moisture out of our region, with it. First the Gila dries, then the Sacs. For the rest of the forecast cycle, we will fall back under the same dry NW flow pattern we are currently under. This will mean dry conditions, daily warming back to above normal, winds generally from the west and southwest and light with some afternoon breezes. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 718 PM MST Mon Dec 1 2025 VFR conditions will prevail across the region, at all terminals for the entirety of the forecast period. Skies will be generally SKC, with minor passing FEW250. No vsby restrictions. winds generally N and NE overnight and through the morning AOB 5-7kts. Tomorrow winds will be variable from S to W, and increase to the 10-15kt range with gusts 18-22kts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1008 AM MST Mon Dec 1 2025 Dry and mild conditions will prevail for the next couple of days with breezy afternoons. Temperatures will be running about 5-8 degrees above normal with RH`s mainly in the 20s lowlands and 30s mountains. An upper trough moves through on Thursday which will drop highs to near normal with just some light precipitation possible over the mountains. Breezy conditions will again be possible going into next weekend but remain below 20 mph. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 68 44 66 42 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 64 42 63 38 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 64 34 61 35 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 59 30 61 34 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 44 29 41 23 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 62 34 58 33 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 55 35 53 30 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 64 33 63 35 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 63 33 61 32 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 66 41 63 41 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 66 33 65 33 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 69 37 69 43 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 60 36 58 35 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 68 38 68 41 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 65 34 63 39 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 65 39 62 41 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 64 27 60 33 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 65 30 63 33 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 67 35 66 39 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 60 31 60 35 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 56 28 53 23 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 51 28 51 25 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 51 26 48 23 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 57 27 52 23 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 61 33 58 32 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 61 30 60 30 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 56 25 51 23 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 57 31 55 29 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 60 27 58 26 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 58 26 52 25 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 58 34 55 33 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 65 34 63 35 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 65 33 62 35 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 66 36 63 38 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 59 37 57 37 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...14-Bird