Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
054 FXUS64 KEPZ 202330 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM Issued by National Weather Service San Angelo TX 530 PM MDT Thu Aug 20 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 526 PM MDT Thu Aug 20 2026 - Above normal temperatures across southern New Mexico and far west Texas through the week ahead. Lowland highs in the upper 90s to lower 100s, near daily records. - Isolated showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. Storm limited mostly to the high terrain and western New Mexico. Dry conditions spread area wide over the weekend and into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1200 PM MDT Thu Aug 20 2026 The subtropical high will remain in place over the Four Corners today, bringing temperatures to near-record high levels for the lowlands for this time of year (100-103). Weak disturbances embedded in NE flow aloft will help spark thunderstorm development this afternoon. But this will mainly be focused over the higher terrain of the Sacramento Mountains and Gila Region. However, there is just enough instability and recycled moisture (mostly aloft) working around the ridge to allow for isolated thunderstorm coverage in the lowlands, though mainly north of El Paso. This is supported by most HREF members and other CAMS as well. Heavy downpours and localized flooding will be the main threats, but again, mostly over the higher terrain areas, as the lowlands will see dewpoints mix-out into the 40s. Friday will bring similar conditions, with a little less moisture to work with. Storms again will favor the higher terrain and drift SW towards the lowlands, and less favorable environment. A few isolated storms will still be possible, mainly in Sierra and northern Dona Ana Counties and parts of the Tularosa Basin. Precip will continue to diminish in coverage through the weekend, with the Gila perhaps being the lone holdout for Saturday before drier and warmer (-4C at 500mb) air aloft moves in as the subtropical ridge settles a little closer, over northern New Mexico. It`ll slowly sprawl-out, with a ridge axis extending from northern Arizona eastward to the Texas Panhandle. As a result, precip chances will be heavily suppressed, and temperatures will remain about 6 to 12 degrees above normal through the period. Max temps may come close to Heat Advisory criteria in the El Paso Lower Valley on some days, but most lowland areas look to see highs around 100 to 103. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 530 PM MDT Thu Aug 20 2026 Isolated TSRA across S NM through 02Z, ending shortly after sunset tonight. Outflow wind gusts up to 25 knots next few hours. Dry conditions overnight with skies SCT-BKN150 and surface winds 030-090 at 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear skies Friday morning, SKC-FEW120. Isolated TS over mtns tomorrow afternoon, likely not affecting local terminals. No mention of TS in TAFs due to low probs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1200 PM MDT Thu Aug 20 2026 The subtropical high will remain in place over the Four Corners today, bringing temperatures to near-record high levels for the lowlands for this time of year (100-103). However, there is just enough instability and recycled moisture (mostly aloft) working around the ridge to allow for isolated thunderstorm coverage in the lowlands, though mainly north of El Paso. Heavy downpours and localized flooding will be the main threats, but again, mostly over the higher terrain areas, as the lowlands will see dewpoints mix-out into the 40s. Friday will bring similar conditions, with a little less moisture to work with. Storms again will favor the higher terrain and drift SW towards the lowlands, and less favorable environment. Precipitation will continue to diminish in coverage through the weekend, with the Gila perhaps being the lone holdout for Saturday before drier and warmer (-4C at 500mb) air aloft moves in as the subtropical ridge settles a little closer, over northern New Mexico. It`ll slowly sprawl-out, with a ridge axis extending from northern Arizona eastward to the Texas Panhandle. As a result, precip chances will be heavily suppressed, and temperatures will remain about 6 to 12 degrees above normal through the period. Ventilation rates should be very good. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 75 102 76 102 / 10 0 10 0 Sierra Blanca 67 101 67 100 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 70 102 70 101 / 10 0 0 0 Alamogordo 71 101 71 100 / 10 10 10 10 Cloudcroft 54 77 54 77 / 10 50 10 30 Truth or Consequences 72 100 72 100 / 10 10 10 0 Silver City 64 94 65 93 / 10 20 10 10 Deming 71 102 71 101 / 10 0 10 0 Lordsburg 70 102 72 101 / 10 10 10 0 West El Paso Metro 77 103 78 103 / 10 10 0 0 Dell City 71 104 70 102 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 74 104 75 103 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 69 97 70 96 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 73 102 74 102 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 73 102 74 102 / 10 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 75 102 76 101 / 10 0 0 0 Jornada Range 71 102 71 100 / 10 0 0 0 Hatch 72 104 72 103 / 10 10 10 0 Columbus 75 103 75 101 / 10 0 10 0 Orogrande 70 101 70 100 / 10 10 0 0 Mayhill 59 89 59 90 / 0 30 10 10 Mescalero 58 88 57 86 / 10 50 10 30 Timberon 57 88 56 87 / 10 20 10 10 Winston 62 90 62 91 / 20 20 10 20 Hillsboro 70 99 69 96 / 10 10 20 0 Spaceport 70 101 70 101 / 10 10 10 0 Lake Roberts 58 90 59 90 / 10 20 10 50 Hurley 65 96 67 94 / 10 10 10 0 Cliff 66 100 67 99 / 10 10 10 10 Mule Creek 65 96 65 96 / 10 10 10 10 Faywood 68 96 69 95 / 10 10 10 0 Animas 71 102 72 101 / 10 10 10 0 Hachita 70 100 71 100 / 10 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 71 99 70 99 / 10 0 0 0 Cloverdale 68 97 68 96 / 10 10 10 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt