858
FXUS64 KEPZ 221121
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
421 AM MST Fri Nov 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 343 AM MST Fri Nov 22 2024

 - Dry and mild weather through the middle of next week,
   temperatures expected to warm to well above normal by this
   weekend.

- Light winds expected through Saturday, then low end breezy
  conditions expected in the lowlands and breezy conditions in
  mountain areas expected through Thanksgiving.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1241 AM MST Fri Nov 22 2024

Quiet weather is expected to continue over the Borderland through
at least the end of next week. An analysis of IR satellite this
morning shows mostly clear skies leading to good radiational
cooling across the area with the lowlands expected to be at or
below freezing before sunrise. The exception will be portions of
the El Paso Metro due to the urban heat island effect will likely
remain in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Models continue show the
quasi-stationary UL low off the coast of Pacific Northwest
meandering through Sunday before moving southeastward sometime
Sunday night and dissipating along the trough axis over northern
Nevada on Monday. A UL ridge over the Pacific, which influence
continues to keep dry and mild conditions over the Borderland,
will be pushed southward allowing for zonal flow to setup over the
area. The ridge will flatten in response to the trough pushing
east southeast across the Rockies on Sunday. Temperatures today
will be roughly 5 to 7 degrees above climatological normals across
the Borderland. As we head into the weekend, high temperatures
will continue to warm to well above normal values with forecast
highs on Sunday, Tuesday, and Wednesday coming within 2 to 3
degree of tying records at El Paso on those days. The caveat that
is working against any potential for tying the records on Tuesday
and Wednesday will be low end breezy conditions at times both
Tuesday and Wednesday along with mid and high level cloudiness
associated with a frontal boundary.

The aforementioned boundary will only bring some cloudiness to the
area on Wednesday afternoon into Thursday as the front will
likely pass just north of the Borderland. For friday, UL ridging
sets back up over the Borderland with continued dry weather and
mild conditions with light winds expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 343 AM MST Fri Nov 22 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Light
and variable winds expected with FEW250 possible near terminals
this afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1241 AM MST Fri Nov 22 2024

Low fire concerns continue as high pressure will persist through
the period. Low RH values approaching single digit values will
lead to a slightly elevated fire weather conditions today over
the Gila region, but light winds will mitigate most of the threat.

For this weekend, expect Min RH values in the low to mid teens
through the weekend with light winds, then climbing into the
upper teens to lower 20s early next week. Vent rates will be poor
today, then range from poor to good Saturday. The vent rates will
range from fair to very good on Sunday, then poor to good on
Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  70  43  74  46 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            69  41  72  43 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               67  36  70  40 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               66  35  68  40 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               55  33  52  36 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    65  36  69  39 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              68  41  68  41 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   69  34  73  37 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                70  33  73  36 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       68  43  71  46 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                69  33  74  37 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             73  37  76  40 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               63  43  65  45 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   69  36  73  40 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             66  36  70  39 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           67  43  70  47 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            66  32  69  37 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    69  31  73  35 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 66  36  71  40 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                63  36  67  39 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  70  38  69  44 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                64  35  62  39 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 62  34  60  37 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  65  29  67  32 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                67  36  72  37 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                66  30  68  33 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             71  36  69  36 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   68  35  71  36 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    76  25  76  25 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               70  36  69  35 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  67  37  70  40 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   72  35  76  39 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  69  32  75  37 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           71  37  77  41 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               72  46  70  43 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...41-Kelly