Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
731 FXUS64 KEPZ 041646 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1046 AM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1045 AM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025 - Temperatures climb through Sunday before decreasing some early next week, then back up mid to late next week - Moisture slowly recovers on Sunday, bringing isolated to scattered thunderstorm chances, especially west && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1045 AM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025 A weak UL s/w trough is continuing to sweep drier air into NM, pushing our monsoonal plume to the east. Rain chances will all but disappear for today into tomorrow with only the Bootheel seeing a chance for storms as moisture comes off the Sierra Madres. High pressure will also be building aloft, which will allow temperatures to warm. El Paso will add to its 100-degree count again tomorrow and Sunday. The high will continue to build and strengthen on Sunday, but moisture will begin a slow increase, allowing isolated storm chances to return to the picture. That remains the case through much of next week. The high will gradually shift from NM into AZ although there are notable differences in the strengthen of the high between the Euro and GFS. Storm chances will remain within the scattered (30- 60%) and isolated (15-30%) categories, with the highest chances west of the Divide, aligned with the better stream of moisture, and the mountains. Highs will also climb for mid to late next week with the NBM showing a decent signal heat advisories will be needed for El Paso (20% Wednesday and 50% next Thursday of 105 degrees or warmer). Happy Independence Day! && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1045 AM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025 VFR conditions with SKC-FEW250 along with a few fair weather cumulus with bases around 100 in the afternoon, mainly over mountains. Winds will peak this afternoon around 10 to 15 knots with gusts 20-25 knots from the west to northwest (270-300). Winds decrease after dark. Unlike the past several days, no TSRA/SHRA is anticipated for any TAF sites. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1045 AM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025 Warming temperatures and lower dew points will lead to a decrease in min RH values, with much of the lowlands falling below 15% for tomorrow and Sunday afternoon. Rain/storm chances will all but disappear except across the Bootheel. Winds will remain light, however, topping out around 10 MPH. As we go into Sunday, moisture begins to increase again leading to scattered mountain and isolated to scattered lowland storms. Rain/storm chances will favor areas west of the Divide. Vent categories will range fair to very good each afternoon, largely limited by weak transport winds courtesy of high pressure aloft. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 76 101 75 101 / 0 0 0 10 Sierra Blanca 66 94 67 92 / 0 0 0 20 Las Cruces 69 98 69 98 / 0 0 0 10 Alamogordo 68 99 69 98 / 0 0 0 20 Cloudcroft 53 78 52 75 / 0 0 0 50 Truth or Consequences 70 97 70 98 / 0 0 0 10 Silver City 62 90 64 93 / 0 10 10 30 Deming 68 99 69 101 / 0 0 0 10 Lordsburg 66 96 68 99 / 10 10 10 20 West El Paso Metro 74 100 75 99 / 0 0 0 10 Dell City 67 99 69 96 / 0 0 0 20 Fort Hancock 72 101 72 101 / 0 0 0 20 Loma Linda 68 93 68 92 / 0 0 0 20 Fabens 71 101 72 100 / 0 0 0 10 Santa Teresa 71 98 71 99 / 0 0 0 10 White Sands HQ 74 99 74 99 / 0 0 0 20 Jornada Range 66 98 68 98 / 0 0 0 20 Hatch 67 100 68 101 / 0 0 0 10 Columbus 74 99 73 101 / 10 0 0 10 Orogrande 67 97 69 96 / 0 0 0 20 Mayhill 59 88 57 83 / 0 10 0 50 Mescalero 57 89 57 86 / 0 0 0 50 Timberon 56 85 56 83 / 0 0 0 40 Winston 57 89 58 91 / 0 10 0 30 Hillsboro 65 96 67 98 / 0 10 0 20 Spaceport 65 97 66 98 / 0 0 0 20 Lake Roberts 56 92 59 93 / 0 20 10 40 Hurley 63 93 65 95 / 0 10 0 20 Cliff 63 97 66 100 / 0 10 10 30 Mule Creek 61 93 64 96 / 0 10 10 30 Faywood 65 93 66 94 / 0 10 0 20 Animas 67 96 69 98 / 20 10 10 30 Hachita 67 95 67 98 / 10 10 10 20 Antelope Wells 66 95 67 98 / 30 20 10 30 Cloverdale 64 90 67 93 / 40 30 20 40 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...34-Brown