Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
181 FXUS64 KEPZ 140353 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 953 PM MDT Mon Jul 13 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 950 PM MDT Mon Jul 13 2026 - Continued isolated thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday, with temperatures several degrees below normal. - Increase in storm activity again Friday and Saturday, with a threat of flooding. Temperatures continuing below normal. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 950 PM MDT Mon Jul 13 2026 WV imagery shows upper high over eastern Colorado and western Nebraska/Kansas with ridge down across most of New Mexico. Old cut- off low over eastern Texas. Deepest moisture continues to be over northern Mexico and far SW New Mexico, with main sub-tropical jet even further west. Despite decent moisture levels (PWs 1.0-1.3 inches), upper ridging and mid-level warming (500mb temperatures -4 to -5) appear to be inhibiting much of our convection. Still isolated, unorganized thunderstorms likely for a few more hours this evening. Tuesday through Thursday...cut-off low continues to retrograde back west with an inverted trough extending out of its northwest quadrant. Though model QPFs don`t reflect it, I think we could see a slight uptick in activity from today, especially Wednesday and Thursday, as the upper ridge moves further west and we come under broad, weak cyclonic rotation of the upper low. 500mb temps also cool a degree or two. Friday through Sunday...upper low drifts over the CWA by Saturday and then down over the Sonoran Desert Sunday. Expect bigger uptick in convection as we should be done with the mid-level warming/capping. Low over us Saturday should increase large scale lift, and PWs approach 1.50 inches (150% of normal). Thus flood potential increases, as should thunderstorm coverage. Sunday may trend down with storm activity as the upper low moves well south of us. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 950 PM MDT Mon Jul 13 2026 Generally VFR conditions through the period with SCT100 SCT-BKN250. Isolated BKN070 -TSRA til around 08Z, mainly west of the RG Valley. Surface winds east/southeast 10-13G23 knots diminishing after 08Z to variable AOB 7 knots. Winds increasing again after 18Z to east/southeast 12-15G35 knots. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1224 PM MDT Mon Jul 13 2026 Additional rounds of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast for this afternoon and evening, with a repeat on Tuesday. The best coverage of storms will be across northern mountainous areas with heavy downpours and gusty outflow winds possible. Storm motion will generally be to the west with winds from the east outside of outflows. Temperatures will remain below normal. Slightly drier conditions will follow Wednesday and Thursday, before convective chances ramp up again late week into next weekend. Relative humidities remain above critical thresholds due to the increased moisture this week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 72 93 71 92 / 10 10 10 10 Sierra Blanca 62 86 60 85 / 20 30 0 10 Las Cruces 66 91 66 90 / 10 10 10 10 Alamogordo 65 91 64 88 / 10 10 0 30 Cloudcroft 50 71 49 69 / 20 10 10 30 Truth or Consequences 70 93 70 89 / 10 10 20 30 Silver City 61 86 60 82 / 20 30 20 50 Deming 66 92 65 91 / 20 10 10 10 Lordsburg 67 91 66 89 / 50 20 20 20 West El Paso Metro 73 92 72 91 / 10 10 10 10 Dell City 66 90 64 89 / 0 10 0 10 Fort Hancock 70 92 68 92 / 20 20 0 10 Loma Linda 64 85 63 84 / 0 10 10 10 Fabens 70 93 68 93 / 10 10 10 10 Santa Teresa 69 91 68 90 / 10 10 10 10 White Sands HQ 72 93 72 91 / 10 10 10 10 Jornada Range 68 92 67 90 / 10 10 10 10 Hatch 68 95 68 93 / 10 10 10 10 Columbus 70 92 70 91 / 30 10 10 10 Orogrande 66 90 66 89 / 0 10 10 10 Mayhill 54 80 53 78 / 20 10 10 30 Mescalero 53 82 53 79 / 10 10 10 30 Timberon 51 78 51 76 / 10 10 0 20 Winston 59 87 59 82 / 10 20 20 50 Hillsboro 65 90 65 87 / 20 20 30 20 Spaceport 65 92 66 89 / 10 10 10 20 Lake Roberts 60 89 59 84 / 20 40 30 70 Hurley 62 88 62 85 / 20 20 20 40 Cliff 64 92 63 88 / 40 40 30 50 Mule Creek 62 88 62 84 / 40 50 40 50 Faywood 63 88 63 85 / 20 20 20 30 Animas 66 91 66 90 / 50 10 20 10 Hachita 65 91 64 89 / 40 10 10 10 Antelope Wells 66 89 65 89 / 50 20 20 10 Cloverdale 63 84 63 84 / 50 30 20 10 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...17-Hefner