Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
027
FXUS64 KEPZ 291728
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1128 AM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Continued daily thunderstorms Sunday and Monday, isolated to
scattered in nature. Best chances for rain are in the area
mountains.
- Better coverage for storms promoting heavy rainfall increases
throughout the work week starting Tuesday. This will also
bring below normal temperatures.
- Drier air moves in for the 4th of July weekend with
temperatures topping 100 degrees for the lowest elevations of
the Rio Grande Valley.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1118 AM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025
An active first several days expected across the CWA with the peak
coming Tue-Thu. To start out, this afternoon into the evening
looks like a repeat of yesterday with outflows coming off the
mountains and popping some isolated storms over the lowlands into
the early evening. Main concern here will be the areas of blowing
dust that have the potential to develop again over the Lordsburg
Playa.
A little shortwave to our northeast will help increase the low
level winds out of the east and bring another surge of moisture to
the area starting Monday and not leaving until late Thu into Fri.
With this moisture surge and continued flash flooding threat over
burn areas in the Sacs, will go ahead and issue a Flood Watch for
Mon from 18Z-06Z Tue. For Mon-Thu PW`s increase to 1.1-1.4"
across the area and an inverted trough sets up out east to start
and very slowly moves west through this time. This can be a
favorable setup for some locally heavy rain and flooding.
Especially during the Tue/Wed period, there`s a fairly strong
easterly flow through about H70 then much weaker flow aloft. Again
this is another feature favorable to heavy rain/flooding with
overnight rain events possible. The inverted trough gets washed
out by Thu, but only to be replaced with an approaching upper
low/trough similar to last week. 90th Percentile 72hr rainfall
amounts get up to around 2" in El Paso with 0.50-1.50" for most
other areas. Would not be surprised if Flood Watches are needed
going into midweek for most of the CWA. Starting Tue, high
temperatures will struggle to get much above the lower 90s and 80s
will be more likely across the lowlands.
As the trough pushes east late Thu into Fri, westerly flow gets
established for the end of the period with much drier air moving
in. There will be a quick increase in temperatures with some areas
of the lower RGV getting back up towards the 100-103 range. NBM
temps did look a little low here and raised a couple of degrees.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1118 AM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025
Clouds will be on the increase through the afternoon with FEW-
SCT080-100 SCT-BKN150-200 by late afternoon. Scattered TSRA will
develop over the Sacs and to a lesser extent the Gila region
between 18Z-20Z with outflows pushing onto the lowlands firing up
isolated storms similar to Sat. There is a good chance for some
blowing dust to again develop over far SW NM near Lordsburg as
outflow winds pick up over 35-40KTS. Skies gradually clear through
the night with just some FEW-SCT150-200 by morning. Winds
generally south to east AOB 12KTS except near thunderstorms.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1118 AM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025
Moisture will once again be on the increase for the first part of
this week with temperatures cooling off to below normal. There
will be daily shower and thunderstorm chances, starting out still
on the isolated side tonight but becoming more numerous areawide
by Tue/Wed. Areas of heavy rain and flooding are possible,
especially on recent burn scars. There will be a push of drier air
going into Fri/Sat which will bring highs back up toward 100
degrees for the lowest elevations and RH`s into the mid teens to
around 30% by the end of the week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 73 95 71 87 / 20 30 30 30
Sierra Blanca 64 85 63 78 / 20 50 50 60
Las Cruces 67 93 66 86 / 30 20 40 30
Alamogordo 67 92 64 85 / 10 40 40 40
Cloudcroft 50 68 48 62 / 10 60 40 70
Truth or Consequences 69 95 66 86 / 10 30 40 30
Silver City 62 88 61 83 / 10 40 40 50
Deming 68 96 68 90 / 20 30 40 30
Lordsburg 69 97 68 90 / 10 30 40 30
West El Paso Metro 73 94 71 86 / 20 30 30 30
Dell City 69 90 67 82 / 20 40 50 50
Fort Hancock 71 94 70 85 / 20 50 50 50
Loma Linda 66 86 63 80 / 20 30 30 40
Fabens 70 94 69 86 / 20 30 30 40
Santa Teresa 69 93 68 85 / 30 20 40 30
White Sands HQ 72 94 70 85 / 20 30 40 40
Jornada Range 67 94 65 85 / 20 30 40 40
Hatch 67 97 66 89 / 20 30 40 40
Columbus 70 97 70 90 / 30 30 40 20
Orogrande 67 90 66 84 / 10 30 40 40
Mayhill 54 79 53 72 / 10 70 50 80
Mescalero 55 80 53 73 / 10 60 50 70
Timberon 54 77 51 70 / 10 60 50 70
Winston 56 87 54 80 / 10 50 40 60
Hillsboro 63 93 62 85 / 20 40 40 50
Spaceport 65 93 63 85 / 10 30 40 40
Lake Roberts 59 88 55 83 / 10 50 40 60
Hurley 63 91 61 84 / 20 40 40 40
Cliff 64 95 60 88 / 10 40 30 40
Mule Creek 61 92 59 85 / 10 30 20 50
Faywood 64 91 63 84 / 20 40 40 50
Animas 67 97 68 91 / 20 20 40 20
Hachita 65 95 66 88 / 20 30 40 30
Antelope Wells 67 95 66 89 / 20 20 40 30
Cloverdale 68 93 66 87 / 20 20 40 30
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Flood Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for
East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Sacramento
Mountains Above 7500 Feet-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains
Below 7500 Feet.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...26-Grzywacz