345
FXUS64 KEPZ 242141
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
241 PM MST Sun Nov 24 2024

...New DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 139 PM MST Sun Nov 24 2024

- Dry weather through the end of the work week. Temperatures above
  normal through Thursday.

- Near seasonable temperatures on Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 139 PM MST Sun Nov 24 2024

Currently, the winds are breezy with the skies mostly cloudy and
the temperatures at the surface on the mild side. For tonight,
the winds will gradually tapper off except for on the eastern
slopes of the mountains. The winds there will become light by
around mid morning on Monday. With somewhat of a strong winds
overnight tonight, the low temperatures on Monday morning will be
several degrees above the normal. For Monday, conditions will be
quiet with a flat ridge aloft. A cold front will move in during
the day, which will allow for the high temperatures in the
afternoon to be a few degrees cooler than what they will be this
afternoon. However, the afternoon temperatures will still be above
the climatological normal. For Tuesday, conditions will be
somewhat similar to that of Monday. The only difference will be
after the front moves out overnight Monday, the high temperatures
on Tuesday afternoon will be a couple of degrees warmer than what
they will be on Monday afternoon.

For the rest of the period, mostly quiet weather conditions are
expected except for some breezy to windy conditions on Wednesday.
A positively tilted shortwave trough will begin to move across
the Rockies during the day on Wednesday, and as it does, it will
allow for an overhead jet to move over coupled with the
development of a surface lee cyclone across northeastern New
Mexico. Despite the where the development of this lee cyclone is
unfavorable for very strong winds in our area, there will be
enough gradient for strong winds occur on Wednesday. As of now,
the winds do not appear to reach advisory criteria; however,
across the mountains, the winds will be the strongest 20 to 30 mph
sustained with gusts up to 45 mph. A side door cold front will
move south across our area on Thanksgiving Day. With this front
moving in, the temperatures will gradually decrease to around the
normal especially east on the Divide toward the end of the week.
Beyond Friday, the weather conditions are a bit uncertain with
moisture moving in on the exit region on the a subtropical
system. As of now, both the GFS and ECMWF model solutions suggest
light precipitation at different times. The GFS suggests
precipitation starting overnight Saturday while the ECMWF suggests
precipitation beginning during the day on Saturday mostly in the
mountains. Due to this uncertainty, just a slight chance for
showers was mentioned across parts of the Gila/Black Range
mountains on Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1040 AM MST Sun Nov 24 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period across all of the
TAF sites with CIG SCT200-BKN250. The winds will eventually
become breezy 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 23 kts and out from
the west southwest through 01Z Monday. The winds will become light
AOB 10 kts thereafter while continuing out from the west
southwest. There will be no reduction in the VSBY across the
runways.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 139 PM MST Sun Nov 24 2024

Dry and breezy conditions are expected for the rest of this
afternoon. Tonight recovery will be fair. For Monday, moisture
will increase slightly. The winds will be light and temperatures
above the normal. Monday overnight recovery will be fair to good.
For Tuesday, conditions will be similar to that of Monday with a
slight uptick in moisture especially north of the International
Border. For the rest of the period, conditions will be mostly
quiet except on Wednesday where the winds will become breezy to
windy ahead of an approaching cold front. The temperatures will be
above the normal through Thursday, but will cool to around the
average on Friday. With that being said, there will be no fire
weather concerns through the period across most of the zones.

The min RHs on Monday will be below 20% in the lowlands and
between 25 and 30% in the mountains. The min RHs on Tuesday will
increase 2 to 6% areawide from what they will be on Monday. The
ventilation rates will be poor to good on Monday then poor to very
good on Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  49  72  46  74 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            45  68  39  70 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               42  69  41  72 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               44  68  41  70 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               35  50  34  50 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    42  65  40  72 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              42  64  42  67 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   37  71  39  74 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                37  67  38  72 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       48  70  48  72 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                42  72  37  73 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             43  73  41  78 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               47  64  42  65 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   44  72  42  75 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             42  69  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           51  69  47  72 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            44  67  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    44  71  39  76 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 42  70  41  73 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                44  67  40  69 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  44  63  36  65 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                38  59  36  61 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 37  59  32  59 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  35  63  31  67 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                43  67  39  73 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                41  67  38  72 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             37  64  37  67 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   38  67  38  70 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    27  72  28  75 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               37  64  37  68 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  42  67  41  70 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   38  70  39  76 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  38  69  38  74 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           42  72  42  78 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               43  66  47  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...36-Texeira