843
FXUS64 KEPZ 031943
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
143 PM MDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...New DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 140 PM MDT Thu Apr 3 2025

 - Light lowland rain and modest mountain snow chances Friday and
   Saturday

 - Afternoon breezes, gradual warming of temperatures, and dry
   weather expected Sunday through mid week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 140 PM MDT Thu Apr 3 2025

A large UL low was noted just north of the Four Corners this
afternoon, and it will be our weather-maker through late Saturday
although impacts appear to be minor. For today, we are in the dry
slot of this system with main jet energy to our south and east. A
weak warm conveyor belt is showing up on satellite extending
across Chihuahua into mainly Hudspeth and Otero Counties into
Eastern NM, but radar shows little in the way of precip with only
a few echos noted over the Southern Sacramento Mountains. The UL
low is forecast to dig/re-form to the south throughout the day
today and WV imagery hints at a secondary vort max over NE AZ
already. Forecast guidance shows the warm conveyor belt will begin
producing precip over far eastern zones as the low does so. These
areas will see the best chance of precipitation throughout the
entire event.

After the low drops south, it will begin shifting eastward
traversing southern NM through the early afternoon hours on
Saturday. This will place the CWA beneath the cold pool aloft,
fostering scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm.
Precipitation will be further aided by a cold front that will drop
in via the north and east. As mentioned, best precip chances will
remain across far eastern zones as that area will see the
greatest dynamics via deformation. Central zones, i.e. the Rio
Grande Valley, will continue to struggle with dry air intrusion
and will see the lowest chances for precipitation. The best shot
for precip will be Saturday afternoon into the evening as wrap-
around precip/ dynamics passes through the CWA. Overall precip
looks pretty light with this system with most of the lowlands
seeing less than 0.10 inch. NBM shows areas along and west of the
Rio Grande only seeing about 25-35% chance of 0.10". Dropping down
to the 25th percentile most lowland locations see nothing. As far
as snow goes, the Gila looks to pick up around an inch, at most
with some of the higher peaks picking up to 2" (the 75th
percentile). The Sacramento Mountains will benefit from being on
the edge of the deformation zone along with upslope flow, so
totals are a bit heavier there. 25th percentile shows 1", 50th
percentile shows 2", and the 75th percentile shows about 4". These
totals do not give me confidence to issue any winter weather
advisories at this time.

The system moves out and weakens by Sunday, and an UL ridge will
gradually replace it. This will lead to warming highs and light
winds. Sunday will be 10 to 15 degrees below normal but we will
be back above normal by Tuesday, pushing 10 degrees above normal
by next Thursday. El Paso`s first 90-degree day looks to arrive
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1124 AM MDT Thu Apr 3 2025

VFR conditions are expected with SCT-BKN 080-120 and FEW-SCT250.
Winds will generally be from the SW to W (220-270) with speeds
topping out between 10 and 15 knots this afternoon and gusts
around 25 knots. Winds will subside after dark.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 140 PM MDT Thu Apr 3 2025

No critical fire concerns expected throughout the forecast period.
Friday will remain dry, however, with min RH values dropping into
the teens across the lowlands, especially across the Rio Grande
and Tularosa valleys. There will also be a low to moderate chance
for showers, mainly mountains and far eastern lowlands. Winds will
remain light, topping out around 10 MPH. Saturday sees further
improvements to afternoon RH values as cooler and slightly more
humid air moves. This will lead to some breezy conditions along
high terrain and west facing slopes, but winds should remain 20
MPH for most locations. Min RH values will be in the mid to upper
20s across the lowlands, much higher for the mountains.

Sunday into next week will see a drying and warming trend. Min RH
values will return to the single-digits in the lowlands by Monday.
Winds will be light, however, as upper level ridging building in
across much of the Western CONUS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  46  65  43  57 /  40  30  20  60
Sierra Blanca            44  57  37  49 /  50  70  40  60
Las Cruces               37  62  35  57 /  20  20  10  50
Alamogordo               40  62  35  56 /  40  30  40  80
Cloudcroft               25  41  21  30 /  50  40  50  90
Truth or Consequences    36  61  36  55 /  10  40  30  60
Silver City              29  52  29  52 /  10  40  20  60
Deming                   34  63  33  61 /  10  20  10  50
Lordsburg                30  58  30  60 /  10  40   0  40
West El Paso Metro       47  63  43  58 /  40  30  20  50
Dell City                42  60  36  48 /  70  60  40  60
Fort Hancock             45  65  38  58 /  50  60  40  50
Loma Linda               41  57  38  48 /  50  40  30  60
Fabens                   46  65  41  58 /  40  40  20  50
Santa Teresa             42  62  38  57 /  40  20  20  50
White Sands HQ           46  63  42  57 /  30  20  20  60
Jornada Range            37  62  33  56 /  20  20  20  60
Hatch                    35  65  33  60 /  10  20  20  50
Columbus                 38  63  38  61 /  10  20  10  40
Orogrande                43  61  38  54 /  40  30  30  60
Mayhill                  31  52  25  38 /  50  50  60  90
Mescalero                28  52  24  40 /  40  40  60  90
Timberon                 26  49  22  38 /  50  40  50  80
Winston                  23  52  22  46 /  10  50  40  80
Hillsboro                31  59  31  54 /  10  30  20  60
Spaceport                32  61  30  56 /  10  30  30  50
Lake Roberts             26  53  25  52 /   0  50  20  70
Hurley                   26  57  27  56 /   0  40  10  60
Cliff                    27  60  27  60 /  10  40  10  60
Mule Creek               29  55  29  56 /  10  50  10  50
Faywood                  31  56  30  53 /  10  30  20  60
Animas                   31  59  31  61 /  10  50  10  30
Hachita                  30  60  31  59 /   0  40  10  40
Antelope Wells           31  59  32  61 /   0  40  20  40
Cloverdale               31  53  32  56 /   0  50  20  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...34-Brown