Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
424
FXUS64 KEPZ 031711
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1111 AM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1100 AM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025
- Afternoon thunderstorms across the area today but drier air
will move in for the Fourth of July through Sunday.
- Temperatures will be below normal through Friday, then will
warm back up to above normal this weekend. Some areas will
reach 100 degrees again along the Rio Grande Lower Valley.
- Mostly dry Friday and Saturday but monsoonal thunderstorms
return Sunday and onward.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1100 AM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025
A current look at WV imagery shows an UL s/w trough over AZ with
monsoonal moisture streaming north ahead of it. This morning`s 12z
sounding at EPZ showed 1.48" of PW with skinny CAPE. Nevertheless,
WV imagery is also showing dry air intrusion at mid-levels, which
is also being reflected by the lack of cu field on vis imagery
west of the Rio Grande. Along and east of the Rio, radar is
already showing some instability showers/thunderstorms. Heavy rain
will be the primary concern, especially ahead of the dry
air/trough axis, but localized flash flooding could occur anywhere
this afternoon with enough lingering surface moisture behind the
trough. Mid-level drying could also intensify storms a little
along with modest shear, but I am not anticipating much, if any,
severe weather, just maybe some small hail. Most activity will
have dissipated/exited the area after dark.
The aforementioned trough will continue to usher in dry air with
rain/storm chances largely disappearing for Friday and Saturday.
Temperatures will warm as high pressure builds aloft overhead.
Mainly locations will warm to near or a few degrees above seasonal
normals, including the return of 100+ weather for El Paso and
other points along the lower RGV of Texas.
The subtropical ridge will remain rooted across the Desert SW/Four
Corners for the rest of the period (Sunday into middle of next
week) but moisture will begin to increase. At the surface, it will
be via easterly winds while mid and upper-levels are from recycled
moisture rotation around the high. The presence of the high will
limit storm coverage, but we will largely keep our typical
monsoonal pattern of scattered mountain and isolated lowland
storms with better coverage/chances showing up toward the NM/AZ
border where the monsoonal plume will be healthiest. Forecast
guidance does show some dry air working back into the area toward
the end of next week, which would reduce storm coverage/chances as
well as increase afternoon highs.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1100 AM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025
Predominately VFR conditions are expected but with periods of MVFR
likely. We can expect variable skies with bases as low as 025,
particularly this afternoon. ISO to SCT SHRA/TSRA is expected with
best probability at ELP. Elsewhere, probability is too low to
mention in TAFs (20-30%). +TSRA will be the main concern. By this
evening, most SHRA/TSRA will have dissipated with clearing skies.
Winds will shift from the SE to SW or W`LY this afternoon with
speeds up to 10 knots and a few gusts to 20 knots, decreasing
again after dark.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1100 AM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025
No significant fire concerns are anticipated through the period
although increasing afternoon highs and decreasing dew points will
lead to critical afternoon RH values in portions of the lowlands.
For the rest of today though, we will see scattered showers and
thunderstorms, favoring the mountains. Rain/storm chances largely
disappear for Friday and Saturday with min RH values in the mid-
teens. Moisture begins to creep back in on Sunday, reintroducing
low shower/thunderstorm chances.
Venting will be fairly diverse across locations though generally
ranging good to very good each afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 75 97 75 102 / 40 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 66 88 66 94 / 40 10 0 0
Las Cruces 67 94 67 99 / 40 0 0 0
Alamogordo 66 94 67 100 / 40 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 49 71 52 77 / 40 10 0 10
Truth or Consequences 67 94 70 97 / 40 0 0 0
Silver City 59 85 61 91 / 40 10 10 10
Deming 67 94 68 100 / 30 0 10 0
Lordsburg 65 91 66 96 / 50 20 20 10
West El Paso Metro 73 94 73 100 / 40 0 0 0
Dell City 69 94 67 99 / 30 10 0 0
Fort Hancock 71 95 71 101 / 50 10 0 0
Loma Linda 65 87 66 92 / 30 0 0 0
Fabens 72 95 71 101 / 40 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 70 93 71 98 / 40 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 72 94 72 100 / 40 0 0 0
Jornada Range 66 94 66 98 / 40 0 0 0
Hatch 67 95 66 100 / 40 0 0 0
Columbus 71 94 73 99 / 40 0 10 0
Orogrande 67 92 67 97 / 40 0 0 0
Mayhill 56 82 58 87 / 40 10 0 10
Mescalero 54 82 56 89 / 40 10 0 10
Timberon 53 78 55 84 / 40 10 0 10
Winston 55 86 58 90 / 40 10 0 10
Hillsboro 61 91 64 96 / 40 10 0 0
Spaceport 64 92 63 97 / 40 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 54 86 55 92 / 50 20 10 10
Hurley 60 88 62 93 / 40 10 10 10
Cliff 62 92 63 98 / 40 10 10 10
Mule Creek 60 88 61 93 / 40 10 10 10
Faywood 62 87 63 92 / 40 10 0 10
Animas 65 91 67 96 / 60 30 20 10
Hachita 65 91 66 96 / 50 20 20 10
Antelope Wells 65 89 66 96 / 70 30 40 10
Cloverdale 62 84 63 91 / 70 30 40 20
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...34-Brown