Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
362 FXUS64 KEPZ 131836 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1236 PM MDT Thu Aug 13 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1236 AM MDT Thu Aug 13 2026 - Isolated showers and thunderstorms today, mostly limited to western NM. Increasing storm coverage this weekend, becoming scattered area wide. Storms will be capable of heavy rain and localized flash flooding, especially Friday and Saturday. - Typical mid-August temperatures next few days, becoming warmer again next week with more 100+ degree days for most of the lowlands. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1236 AM MDT Thu Aug 13 2026 Currently strong upper high is located over the far SE US with an upper trough over the West Coast. This has the upper flow over the area S to SW and as we go into Fri/Sat, the low level flow will be turning SE and bringing in some Gulf moisture. This will be the best monsoonal setup we have had this summer with PW`s on the rise to 1.1-1.3" across the lowlands. For this evening and overnight, it looks very similar to yesterday with isld to sct storms from the NM Bootheel to Sierra County with just isolated storms south and east. There does look to be another wave that will move up out of Mexico overnight that could bring some showers and thunderstorms to parts of far west TX after midnight. Overnight lows again in the upper 60s to lower 70s with 50s/60s in the mountains. For Friday, we actually get a bit of a lee trough developing over eastern zones and this will be the focus for storm initiation in the afternoon with outflows pushing storms further west toward the RGV. Highs will remain under 100 degrees with the increased moisture in place. Saturday is looking like the most active day, low level ESE flow gets established and moisture peaks. There isn`t much of an upper disturbance, but the deep moisture and SE flow over the Sacs will fire early afternoon storms and then good agreement with models that outflows will move W to SW and be the focus for additional development over the lowlands into the overnight hours. Instability isn`t great with the deeper moisture but slow storm motion will bring some locally heavy rain and gusty winds will also be a threat. Some differences start showing up in the models going into Sun and early next week. They do agree the upper high retrogrades and becomes established back over the southern Rockies but the GFS pushes the moisture west into AZ with some storms on the higher terrain, but the EC keeps some moisture under the high and allows for at least isolated lowland coverage daily. Also, going into midweek, the GFS breaks down the ridge with a fairly potent trough moving through the Northern Rockies while the EC keeps the high in place. Looking at ensemble means, even the GEFS mean supports the ridge remaining in place and given it`s still mid Aug, think the breakdown of such a strong ridge is unlikely. This basically keeps most of the area on the drier side with temperatures above normal with highs back into the 100-105 range for the lowlands. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 AM MDT Thu Aug 13 2026 P6SM FEW-SCT080-100 SCT-BKN150-200 through most of the period. Expect thunderstorm activity mainly focused in an arc from the NM Bootheel north and east toward KTCS by mid afternoon and activity dying off around sunset. The only terminal where I felt confident enough to mention TS was KTCS and kept a PROB30 going. A disturbance coming up out of Mexico overnight could bring some light rain and possibly a thunderstorm to far west TX between 06Z-14Z but confidence in placement is low. Winds generally W to SW at 5-15KTS with some gusts to 25KTS through 03Z, KELP will likely keep some gusty winds going past 06Z before dying off. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1236 AM MDT Thu Aug 13 2026 Moisture will be deepening over the region over the next couple of days with thunderstorm chances back on the increase for Fri and Sat. Temperatures for the lowlands during this time will remain under 100 degrees and RH`s will be 20%+ areawide. Some locally heavy rain is possible Fri/Sat with slow storm motion and some of the best deep moisture we have seen this summer. Upper high will become established back over the southern Rockies by early next week bringing a return to what has become the weather pattern of the monsoon season with generally mountain storms and the main focus on the Gila region. Temperatures for the lowlands will return to being near or slightly above 100 degrees next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 74 97 74 98 / 20 10 30 30 Sierra Blanca 70 91 67 92 / 40 20 30 30 Las Cruces 68 93 69 96 / 10 10 20 20 Alamogordo 70 95 70 96 / 10 10 20 30 Cloudcroft 51 72 51 72 / 10 30 20 80 Truth or Consequences 68 93 69 95 / 20 10 20 20 Silver City 60 87 60 89 / 20 10 10 10 Deming 66 94 67 97 / 10 20 20 10 Lordsburg 67 91 67 94 / 20 20 10 0 West El Paso Metro 74 96 74 98 / 20 10 30 20 Dell City 74 97 70 97 / 20 20 30 20 Fort Hancock 75 97 73 99 / 40 20 40 30 Loma Linda 68 89 67 90 / 20 10 30 40 Fabens 73 97 72 98 / 20 10 30 30 Santa Teresa 70 93 71 96 / 10 10 20 20 White Sands HQ 73 94 73 96 / 10 10 20 20 Jornada Range 67 94 68 96 / 10 10 20 20 Hatch 69 97 69 97 / 10 10 20 20 Columbus 72 94 72 97 / 10 20 20 10 Orogrande 68 93 68 94 / 10 10 20 20 Mayhill 61 84 57 83 / 10 40 20 90 Mescalero 57 83 57 83 / 0 30 20 80 Timberon 54 82 54 82 / 10 30 20 60 Winston 57 83 57 86 / 20 40 20 30 Hillsboro 63 92 64 94 / 20 20 20 20 Spaceport 67 93 66 95 / 10 10 20 20 Lake Roberts 55 86 55 88 / 20 20 20 30 Hurley 61 89 61 92 / 20 10 10 10 Cliff 61 91 61 93 / 20 10 10 0 Mule Creek 58 87 59 90 / 20 10 10 0 Faywood 63 89 64 90 / 20 20 20 10 Animas 66 92 67 93 / 20 20 10 0 Hachita 66 91 67 94 / 20 20 20 10 Antelope Wells 66 90 66 93 / 20 30 20 10 Cloverdale 63 84 63 88 / 20 20 10 20 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...26-Grzywacz