Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
359 FXUS64 KEPZ 181705 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1105 AM MDT Mon Aug 18 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1100 AM MDT Mon Aug 18 2025 - Deeper monsoonal moisture on southerly winds will persist through Tuesday, with abundant cloud coverage and chances for thunderstorms. - Moisture will slowly diminish around midweek to near normal on Wednesday, allowing for more isolated storm coverage. Even drier air expected late starting Thursday, with storms limited mostly to the mountains. - Temperatures remaining near normal through the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1100 AM MDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Deep southerly flow continues across Southern NM and Far West TX with an UL trough off the west coast and a broad UL high over much of the CONUS. This morning`s sounding showed 1.37" of PW with about 800 J/kg of CAPE, so we expect another round of showers and thunderstorms today with storms starting in the mountains before moving into the lowlands by late afternoon into the evening. The HRRR continues convection well into the overnight and early morning hours. A warm-core MCV (cyclonic low-level circulation below an anticyclonic UL circulation) just north of Hermosillo, Sonora though it`s unclear how it may affect our weather. With us on the perimeter of it, it is more likely to enhance it, which may explain the HRRR`s tendency to keep convection ongoing so late. Localized flash flooding will be the main concern today. Even though we are in deep southerly flow, the UL pattern is in flux. The UL high will reform to our north, toward and just east of the Four Corners, this afternoon, becoming fully established by Tuesday. It`s not the most favorable thermodynamic pattern, but deep easterly flow will continue to sustain healthy moisture for the area. Thus Tuesday will feature another round of at least scattered thunderstorms with an attendant risk for flash flooding. Drier air begins moving into the area on Wednesday though latest guidance only shows a modest decrease (0.10-0.15), keeping values above normal. Looking at the LREF, some minor warming looks to occur as well with the expansion of the UL high. Convective coverage should decrease as a result, but not nearly enough to eliminate storm chances. That changes for Thursday though as east to northeasterly flow continues to advect dry air with PW values expected to drop below 1". Storm chances will be limited to the mountains as a result. We will remain in a dry pattern to finish the period (Friday through Sunday) as PW values drop further, remaining below 1". Additionally the UL high will shift south, gradually centering itself over the central AZ-NM border. The mountains, particularly the Gila, will continue to see low thunderstorm chances (around 20%), but elsewhere will be dry. Temperatures will also warm, but two things will limit our otherwise hot pattern. One, the high is not particularly strong at H500, only around 594 dm, and two, our air mass will come from the Central Plains allowing weak CAA. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1100 AM MDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Mainly VFR conditions are expected with FEW-SCT160-250 becoming SCT to occasionally BKN100-150. Winds will be light and variable, favoring south to southwest (180-200) during the afternoon hours. ISO to SCT SHRA/TSRA is expected to develop this afternoon, lasting into the evening. Decent chance (30-40%) individual TAF sites will be directly impacted, but confidence on timing is too low to include in TAF cycle except for a PROB30 at ELP. Amendments will likely be needed. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1100 AM MDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Minimal to nil fire concerns continue as monsoonal moisture remains in place. This afternoon and evening will feature more showers and thunderstorms, initiating first in the mountains before moving into the lowlands. We will see another night of good to excellent recoveries while afternoon RH values range 25 to 35 in the lowlands tomorrow afternoon. Tuesday will feature more afternoon and evening shower and thunderstorms. Starting Wednesday, we will see a slow decrease in moisture with a decrease in storm coverage. Thursday sees a sharper decrease ending storm chances for all but the mountains. Min RH values will remain above 20%, however. Winds, outside of thunderstorms, will be light. Venting will generally range fair to good, increasing throughout the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 95 75 95 74 / 40 40 40 30 Sierra Blanca 90 66 89 66 / 60 40 60 20 Las Cruces 90 69 91 69 / 30 50 40 40 Alamogordo 91 69 90 68 / 50 40 40 30 Cloudcroft 67 51 68 50 / 80 40 70 30 Truth or Consequences 90 69 90 69 / 50 40 40 40 Silver City 86 64 86 64 / 60 50 70 60 Deming 94 69 94 70 / 40 50 40 50 Lordsburg 93 69 94 69 / 50 50 60 60 West El Paso Metro 93 74 93 74 / 30 40 40 30 Dell City 93 69 93 68 / 50 30 40 10 Fort Hancock 95 73 94 72 / 60 40 60 20 Loma Linda 87 67 87 67 / 50 40 50 20 Fabens 94 72 94 71 / 40 30 50 20 Santa Teresa 92 72 92 71 / 30 40 40 40 White Sands HQ 93 72 93 72 / 40 50 50 40 Jornada Range 91 69 91 69 / 40 50 50 50 Hatch 94 69 94 69 / 40 50 40 50 Columbus 93 71 94 72 / 20 50 30 50 Orogrande 90 69 89 67 / 50 40 40 30 Mayhill 80 56 79 55 / 80 40 70 30 Mescalero 80 55 79 54 / 80 50 70 30 Timberon 77 55 76 54 / 70 40 70 20 Winston 85 56 85 58 / 60 40 60 50 Hillsboro 91 64 91 64 / 50 40 50 60 Spaceport 91 67 90 68 / 40 50 40 40 Lake Roberts 86 57 86 58 / 80 50 70 60 Hurley 88 64 87 64 / 60 50 60 50 Cliff 94 66 93 66 / 70 50 70 50 Mule Creek 90 63 89 63 / 60 40 70 40 Faywood 87 65 87 65 / 50 40 60 50 Animas 93 68 94 69 / 50 50 60 60 Hachita 92 66 92 67 / 50 50 50 60 Antelope Wells 90 66 92 66 / 50 50 50 60 Cloverdale 85 64 87 66 / 60 60 60 60 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...34-Brown