Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
811 FXUS64 KEPZ 161131 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 531 AM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026 ...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 529 AM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026 - Continued isolated thunderstorms today, with temperatures several degrees below normal. - Increased storm activity Friday through Sunday, with a threat of heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding. - Storm chances lower early next week with drier conditions expected. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1029 PM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026 Main upper high persists over the upper Midwest, with the old cut- off low still over south central Texas. Inverted trough extending northward from the low over far eastern New Mexico. This has formed a nice summer-time Rex Block version. Drier air has filtered in over much of the CWA all the way south to the old deformation zone extending from far south Texas west to upper low over the Baja. Main sub-tropical moisture plume continues along the western and northern margins of the Rex Block; from the Sonoran Desert up to Montana and eastward across the top of the high. PWs had dropped to around .8-.9 inches this afternoon. However a few thunderstorms were still able to form over the Tularosa Basin this afternoon and further west over Sierra and Grant Counties this evening. Thursday...looks similar to today. Cut-off low drifts further west, over the Permian Basin, but drier channel still looks to sit over much of the CWA, with deeper moisture over far western New Mexico and Arizona. Still expect isolated thunderstorms across the area. Strong outflow winds main threat again, though DCAPES look much lower than today. Friday through Sunday...upper low very slowly approaches the area, only reaching the Big Bend area Saturday night. Both GFS/ECMWF then mostly fill low in over northern Mexico Sunday or merge it with low further south. The "dry-slot" over the area slowly fills in as PWs increase back to around 1.0-1.3 inches (up to 130% of normal). Expect increase in thunderstorm coverage and also heavy rainfall/flash flood threat. Sunday could be a transition day depending on the models, as they begin to diverge. The GFS moves the upper low-associated trough west over Arizona along with much of the moisture. Hence rain chances are on the decrease. The ECMWF on the other hand, keeps the moisture over our CWA, perhaps with the aid of another trough rotating up from the Big Bend. This would mean a continuation Sunday of active thunderstorms. Monday and Tuesday...model difference continues, as the GFS increases dry easterly flow south of the upper high. Very little chance of rain with GFS solution, while ECMWF keeps higher moisture and good chances of rain continue. Main pivot point is the position/orientation of the upper high; both models keep upper high over the central Plains-the GFS orients the high east-west with dry easterly flow over our area. The ECMWF orients the high north-south keeping the moisture and rain over our area. NBM for now looks to be towing the ECMWF solution. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 510 AM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026 No mention of TS this afternoon in TAFs, but there are slightly better chances (about 20%) than previous days. Higher storm chances west of KDMN. Storms will progress SW today. Light winds AOB 10kts through the period mainly from E-SE. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 510 AM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026 Isolated to scattered thunderstorms develop this afternoon with better coverage west of the Continental Divide. A few instances of flash flooding are possible out west with high rain rates and frequent lightning. Winds will be light from the south and east today outside of gusty outflows. Temperatures will be near where they were yesterday with poor to good ventilation. The storm and flood threat increase into the weekend area-wide as a disturbance moves into the region and moisture levels tick up. Saturday looks like the best day to see heavy rainfall. Most areas should see wetting rain by the end of the weekend. Temperatures remain below normal into next week. Min RHs range from 20-45% through Fri, then 30-55%. Vent rates will be poor to good. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 73 94 71 91 / 20 30 60 50 Sierra Blanca 63 89 63 86 / 10 40 50 70 Las Cruces 67 92 65 89 / 20 30 50 50 Alamogordo 66 91 66 89 / 20 50 40 70 Cloudcroft 49 69 50 68 / 20 80 40 90 Truth or Consequences 69 91 68 90 / 20 40 30 60 Silver City 60 83 59 81 / 40 60 40 80 Deming 65 93 64 91 / 20 40 50 60 Lordsburg 65 88 64 87 / 40 50 50 60 West El Paso Metro 74 92 72 90 / 20 30 60 50 Dell City 66 91 66 91 / 10 40 30 70 Fort Hancock 70 95 70 92 / 10 40 50 70 Loma Linda 65 87 64 83 / 10 50 50 60 Fabens 71 95 69 92 / 20 30 60 50 Santa Teresa 70 92 68 88 / 20 30 70 50 White Sands HQ 73 93 71 90 / 20 40 60 60 Jornada Range 68 92 66 90 / 20 40 50 60 Hatch 68 95 66 93 / 20 40 40 60 Columbus 70 93 70 90 / 20 40 60 60 Orogrande 67 90 66 88 / 10 40 50 60 Mayhill 53 79 55 79 / 20 80 30 90 Mescalero 53 79 54 79 / 20 80 30 80 Timberon 51 76 52 75 / 20 70 40 80 Winston 57 82 58 82 / 40 70 30 80 Hillsboro 64 89 64 87 / 40 50 40 70 Spaceport 65 91 64 89 / 20 40 40 60 Lake Roberts 57 84 59 83 / 40 70 40 90 Hurley 60 86 60 84 / 30 50 40 80 Cliff 62 88 62 87 / 40 60 50 80 Mule Creek 60 84 59 83 / 50 60 50 80 Faywood 62 86 62 85 / 30 40 40 80 Animas 65 88 64 86 / 40 60 50 70 Hachita 63 89 63 87 / 40 50 50 60 Antelope Wells 65 88 64 86 / 30 70 50 70 Cloverdale 62 81 61 80 / 50 60 50 70 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...39-Aronson