Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
330
FXUS64 KEPZ 300421
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1021 PM MDT Tue Jul 29 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 959 PM MDT Tue Jul 29 2025
- Flash flooding threat lingers into tonight, mainly west of the
Rio Grande.
- Decreasing moisture will lead to diminishing flash flood and
storm threats to end the work week. Area mountains will be
favored for storms into the weekend.
- Temperatures climb heading into the weekend with lowland
locations at or a little above 100 degrees by early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 959 PM MDT Tue Jul 29 2025
The threat of heavy rainfall and flash flooding continues into
tonight as the moisture plume sits overhead. The inverted trough
that gave most areas at least a good soaking Monday night
continues to weaken and will progress into northern NM tonight, so
forcing will be less favorable for convective development as we
head into the morning. With PWs remaining above normal tonight
(falling towards 1.25"), isolated instances of flash flooding can
be seen due to efficient rain producing storms, mainly in the Gila
Region. Rain rates of 1-2" per hour can be seen tonight.
For Wed, most of the moisture plume gets choked off by an upper high
drifting in from the east. Drier air moves in for eastern areas with
areas to the north and west favored for storms and a low threat of
heavy rainfall. PWs will still be near or slightly above normal, so
storms cannot be entirely ruled out east of the RGV with potential
for gusty outflows.
The high will continue to push westward for the second half of the
week, sitting over the Southern Rockies by Thursday. The threat of
flash flooding out west diminishes into late week while recycled
moisture is trapped underneath the upper high. Storm chances will be
favored in area mountains into the weekend as moisture levels
gradually decrease to below normal, lowering the storm threat each
day into next week. The upper high meanders around the Southern
Rockies region towards the end of the period with some uncertainty
regarding which areas will have the best storm chances. Mostly dry
conditions are expected starting this weekend with any storms that
develop capable of producing gusty winds and brief downpours.
Temperatures remain near or slightly below normal through Friday due
to lingering moisture, then warming up this weekend. High temps
reach a few degrees above average early next week as the upper high
sits over the region and brings in drier air. El Paso is forecast
to see a few more 100s next week, but not record-challenging.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 959 PM MDT Tue Jul 29 2025
To begin the forecast period, an area of light-moderate rain is
ongoing near KLRU. -SHRA will linger for KLRU until about 8z as
the clouds dissipate thereafter. These showers could approach
KDMN from the south and east over the next several hours.
Thunderstorms are also approaching KTCS from the NW, but are
tracking west of the terminal. For Wed afternoon, confidence is
too low for any TS mention in TAFs, but there is a slight chance
of storms developing near the terminals later in the period. Other
than gusty outflows, winds will be AOB 8kts mainly from S.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1100 AM MDT Tue Jul 29 2025
The fire weather threat remains low for the next 48 hours as
abundant moisture across the region will lead to scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms. The main threat will be flash
flooding in and near recent burn scars. Min RH`s through Thursday
will stay above 20%, but we will see a drying trend as we head
into the weekend which, by Sunday, will give us min RH`s in the
teens in the lowlands and 20 to 30% in area mountains. The winds
will stay below critical levels except for gusty winds associated
with thunderstorm outflow winds.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 71 96 75 97 / 40 20 10 20
Sierra Blanca 64 91 66 93 / 30 20 10 20
Las Cruces 66 90 69 92 / 40 20 20 30
Alamogordo 66 90 68 92 / 30 40 20 40
Cloudcroft 49 69 50 69 / 40 60 20 60
Truth or Consequences 65 90 68 91 / 40 30 30 50
Silver City 60 85 63 87 / 40 50 40 70
Deming 67 93 69 95 / 40 20 30 40
Lordsburg 66 92 68 94 / 40 20 40 60
West El Paso Metro 69 92 73 95 / 40 20 10 20
Dell City 69 94 70 94 / 20 20 10 10
Fort Hancock 71 96 73 98 / 30 20 10 20
Loma Linda 65 87 67 88 / 30 20 10 20
Fabens 70 94 72 96 / 30 20 10 10
Santa Teresa 67 91 71 93 / 40 20 10 20
White Sands HQ 70 91 72 93 / 40 20 10 40
Jornada Range 66 90 67 92 / 40 20 20 40
Hatch 67 92 69 95 / 40 30 30 40
Columbus 68 93 71 95 / 40 20 30 30
Orogrande 67 90 68 91 / 30 20 10 30
Mayhill 55 79 55 78 / 40 60 20 60
Mescalero 54 79 55 80 / 40 60 20 70
Timberon 54 77 55 78 / 30 50 20 50
Winston 56 83 57 84 / 40 50 30 70
Hillsboro 61 89 64 91 / 40 40 30 60
Spaceport 65 90 66 91 / 40 20 20 50
Lake Roberts 56 87 57 88 / 50 40 50 80
Hurley 62 87 64 89 / 40 40 40 70
Cliff 63 93 65 95 / 40 40 40 70
Mule Creek 61 91 62 92 / 40 30 40 60
Faywood 62 86 65 88 / 40 40 30 60
Animas 66 93 67 95 / 40 40 40 60
Hachita 64 90 65 93 / 40 20 40 50
Antelope Wells 65 90 66 93 / 50 50 50 60
Cloverdale 64 88 66 89 / 50 60 60 70
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch until 6 AM MDT Wednesday for Eastern/Central El Paso
County-Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Rio
Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-Salt Basin-
Southern Hudspeth Highlands-Western El Paso County.
NM...Flood Watch until 6 AM MDT Wednesday for Central Grant
County/Silver City Area-East Central Tularosa
Basin/Alamogordo-East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below
7500 Feet-Eastern Black Range Foothills-Northern Dona Ana
County-Otero Mesa-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-
Sierra County Lakes-Southeast Tularosa Basin-Southern Dona
Ana County/Mesilla Valley-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres
Valley-Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range-Southwest
Desert/Mimbres Basin-Upper Gila River Valley-West Central
Tularosa Basin/White Sands-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains
Below 7500 Feet.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...39-Aronson