Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
406
FXUS64 KEPZ 261717
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1117 AM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered thunderstorms each afternoon and evening, becoming
more isolated this weekend as coverage decreases. Best chances
over area mountains. Storms will be capable of heavy rain and
flooding.
- Warmer temperatures over the weekend, lowland highs in the mid
to upper nineties.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1100 AM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025
Plume of monsoonal moisture that brought much of the area heavy
rainfall this week is making a subtle drift eastward today.
Precipitable water values remain in the 1.0-1.3" range along and
east of the Rio Grande, slightly lower (0.7-0.9") across western
New Mexico. This will likely reflect thunderstorm coverage today
and tomorrow, with 20-30% coverage west and 40-50% coverage east,
with the best chances being over the high terrain. Storms will be
increasingly hit-or-miss today and tomorrow, which makes
forecasting rain chances difficult.
Thunderstorm activity in the lowlands will be mostly driven by
outflows and mesoscale boundary collisions, once again favoring
Otero, Hudspeth, Dona Ana, and El Paso Counties. The main hazard
being heavy rain and flash flooding. Flood risk has decreased
somewhat compared to the past few days due to the more isolated
nature of these storms but also because of lower available
moisture. A few storms may be strong with gusty outflow winds,
blowing dust, and hail.
Broad upper high aloft begins to set in over central New Mexico
this weekend. Further erosion of mid-level moisture profiles and
increased subsidence within the 300-500mb layer will decrease (but
not fully remove) storm chances. Scattered early afternoon storms
over the high terrain (mostly Sacramento Mtns) and low-coverage
(10-20%) isolated lowland storms in the evening.
Temperatures also warm back up this weekend closer to normal for
late June. Lowland highs will return to the upper 90s with the
drier forecast. Looks like El Paso won`t reach triple-digits this
time, thankfully.
A second wave of monsoon moisture is likely to return next week,
leading to an active first week of July and Independence Day.
Pacific shortwave combined with a strong surface high over the
Gulf of America will enhance moisture advection back into New
Mexico and far west Texas beginning next Tuesday. Storm coverage
will become more scattered (30-50%) to numerous (60-80%) headed
into the holiday weekend. GFS and ECMWF are actually both pretty
aggressive with storm chances. Something to keep in mind as folks
plan for the Fourth of July...
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1100 AM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025
VMC this afternoon with skies FEW-SCT130 and CB over mountains.
TSRA beginning around 21Z across S NM and far W TX. Coverage will
be more isolated than past days, with plenty of gaps around CB.
Storm coverage around 20-30% around terminals this evening. Left
PROB30 mention of TS in TAFs, but will amend with more confident
wordage if necessary.
Surface winds 130-160 at 04-08 knots today, stronger gusts near
TSRA. Rain chances diminish after sunset, with skies SCT120 BKN200
overnight.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1100 AM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025
Low fire danger rest of the week due to increased moisture and
recent wetting rain. Light winds today with Fair smoke
ventilation. Min RH 20-30% across GNF, higher over LNF. Best
chances for storms over the forests between 12PM-4PM each
afternoon. Main concerns will be burn scar flash flooding and
erratic wind gusts.
Decreasing coverage in storms this weekend due to high pressure
aloft of drier conditions. GNF will become mostly dry (Min RH
down to 15-20%) with scattered afternoon thunderstorms limited to
LNF. Fire danger becoming Elevated again over GNF by Sunday. No
strong winds expected outside of thunderstorm outflows.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 72 91 71 95 / 50 40 30 20
Sierra Blanca 64 85 64 88 / 50 70 40 50
Las Cruces 65 88 65 92 / 40 30 30 10
Alamogordo 65 88 65 93 / 30 50 30 20
Cloudcroft 48 66 49 70 / 20 60 30 50
Truth or Consequences 67 91 67 94 / 20 30 20 10
Silver City 59 85 61 88 / 30 40 20 20
Deming 66 92 66 96 / 40 30 30 10
Lordsburg 64 92 65 95 / 30 30 20 10
West El Paso Metro 72 88 72 93 / 50 40 40 20
Dell City 67 88 67 92 / 40 50 20 30
Fort Hancock 70 91 70 94 / 50 60 40 40
Loma Linda 64 82 65 86 / 40 50 30 20
Fabens 69 91 69 94 / 40 50 30 20
Santa Teresa 69 88 69 92 / 50 40 40 10
White Sands HQ 70 88 71 93 / 40 40 30 20
Jornada Range 64 88 64 92 / 40 30 30 10
Hatch 65 91 66 95 / 40 30 30 10
Columbus 68 91 69 95 / 50 30 40 10
Orogrande 67 86 66 91 / 30 40 30 20
Mayhill 53 77 54 80 / 30 70 20 60
Mescalero 52 77 53 81 / 30 60 20 40
Timberon 51 73 51 78 / 30 60 30 40
Winston 53 83 53 86 / 20 40 10 20
Hillsboro 61 88 61 93 / 30 40 20 20
Spaceport 62 88 62 93 / 30 30 20 10
Lake Roberts 56 87 57 90 / 30 40 20 20
Hurley 60 87 61 91 / 30 40 20 10
Cliff 61 93 62 97 / 20 30 10 10
Mule Creek 59 91 60 93 / 20 20 10 10
Faywood 62 86 63 89 / 30 40 30 20
Animas 64 93 66 96 / 30 40 20 10
Hachita 62 91 64 93 / 40 40 40 10
Antelope Wells 64 90 64 93 / 40 40 40 20
Cloverdale 63 88 64 91 / 30 40 30 10
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for East Slopes
Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Sacramento Mountains
Above 7500 Feet-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500
Feet.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt