Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
457 FXUS64 KEPZ 121741 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1141 AM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1012 AM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026 - Isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening in Otero and Hudspeth Counties. - Sunday will be the region`s best chance to see widespread showers and thunderstorms. - Relief from the heat this weekend and into next week, triple digit temperatures return midweek. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1012 AM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026 Moisture in the eastern reaches of our region will produce isolated showers and thunderstorms for Hudspeth and Otero Counties this afternoon and evening. Outflow winds may be felt by the metro area this evening from these thunderstorms. Nonetheless, the lowlands will see a slight decrease in temperatures for today and tomorrow as the slowing moisture influx overhead will give a few spots some triple digit temperatures. There will be just a little change (small, to say the least) in wind direction as westerly flow turns southerly, bringing in more moisture for the weekend. Sunday looks to be an active day in terms of thunderstorms as moisture deepens overhead (PW values are near 1.25). Ever just the same, the best chance of thunderstorms will be east of the Rio Grande. With CAPE values over 1000 J/kg and wind shear 30-40kt, we could see some severe thunderstorms for Sunday afternoon. This moisture will also give us some heat relief as temperatures will dip under the 100-degree mark for Sunday and Monday. A new area of upper-level high pressure will return to Southern New Mexico on Tuesday, and ever as before, and ever just as sure, high pressure will facilitate an increase in temperatures for the Borderland midweek. Whether any Heat Advisories will be needed for the lowlands on Wednesday and Thursday remains to be seen. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1012 AM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026 VFR conditions are expected for the entire forecast period. South winds at 10kt with gusts of 20kt this afternoon. Clouds will range between SCT and BKN250 with some FEW-SCT090 possible into the evening as moisture raises the chances of possible -TSRA/SHRA in Otero and Hudspeth Counties. Any outflows possible with these storms will gust up to 35kt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1012 AM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026 Moisture will produce some isolated thunderstorms in Otero and Hudspeth Counties this evening. Ventilation rates this weekend will range from Good out east to Excellent out west into tonight as winds will top out at around 10 mph. Cooler temperatures expected for this weekend and into Monday before turning hot and dry midweek. Sunday looks to be the best day for thunderstorms, especially out east of the Rio Grande. Some may produce lightning and gusty outflow winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 73 102 76 97 / 0 0 20 30 Sierra Blanca 63 95 66 91 / 30 10 10 50 Las Cruces 68 100 69 96 / 0 0 20 20 Alamogordo 67 98 70 94 / 10 0 20 70 Cloudcroft 50 77 52 70 / 10 20 30 90 Truth or Consequences 70 98 70 93 / 0 20 20 20 Silver City 63 92 62 91 / 0 0 10 20 Deming 68 103 69 100 / 0 0 0 10 Lordsburg 66 97 66 97 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 71 100 74 96 / 0 0 20 30 Dell City 64 98 66 91 / 30 10 20 50 Fort Hancock 69 102 72 99 / 20 10 10 30 Loma Linda 64 93 67 87 / 10 0 10 30 Fabens 68 103 71 99 / 10 0 10 20 Santa Teresa 67 99 70 95 / 0 0 20 20 White Sands HQ 75 100 76 95 / 0 10 20 40 Jornada Range 67 99 68 95 / 0 10 20 40 Hatch 68 102 69 99 / 0 10 10 10 Columbus 72 102 75 100 / 0 0 10 10 Orogrande 64 97 67 92 / 10 0 10 40 Mayhill 55 88 56 76 / 20 50 30 80 Mescalero 54 88 56 79 / 10 20 20 80 Timberon 51 84 54 77 / 20 20 20 70 Winston 51 89 57 85 / 0 20 10 50 Hillsboro 67 96 67 92 / 0 20 20 30 Spaceport 65 98 65 94 / 0 20 20 30 Lake Roberts 54 93 57 91 / 0 10 10 30 Hurley 63 95 64 94 / 0 0 0 20 Cliff 54 98 59 98 / 0 0 10 10 Mule Creek 48 93 61 93 / 0 10 10 0 Faywood 64 95 65 92 / 0 10 0 20 Animas 65 97 65 96 / 0 10 10 10 Hachita 65 98 66 97 / 0 0 10 10 Antelope Wells 65 97 65 96 / 0 20 20 30 Cloverdale 62 91 61 90 / 0 10 20 30 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...41-Zotter