155
FXUS64 KEPZ 211738
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1038 AM MST Fri Feb 21 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1035 AM MST Fri Feb 21 2025

 - Cooler than average temperatures linger for eastern areas today

 - Temperatures warm to well above normal early next week as dry
   conditions persist

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 124 AM MST Fri Feb 21 2025

The stationary front roughly around the RGV continues to keep
eastern areas cool this morning. Mostly light winds won`t make it
feel much colder through sunrise. Zonal flow underneath a sagging
upper trough will weaken the stalled boundary today, but highs
will still be a bit below normal east of the RGV this afternoon.
By Saturday, the front is no longer relevant as a secondary upper
trough swings through southern NM. Other than some mid-high clouds
and late-day breeziness on Saturday on the backside of the trough,
no impacts are forecast from this weak system.

A third weak trough dives down from the north on Sunday, but with
absolutely no moisture associated with it. Again, modest breezes
are expected for Sunday as we begin to warm up early next week.
Upper ridging over the Desert SW dominates our weather for much
of next week, allowing temperatures to climb well above average
Mon-Wed. Highs in the lowlands reach into the low 80s on those
days with Tuesday being the warmest day of this stretch. An
impulse of energy pushes through the north- central Rockies Tue-
Tue night, bringing surface high pressure into the High Plains
with a cold front ahead of it. Some of the cooler air looks to
reach our area by Thursday, but temperatures stay above normal,
just not record- challenging. Breezy winds may accompany the front
as well around the middle of next week depending on how far south
and west the boundary reaches. No precip chances are forecast
through midweek with mostly light winds continuing.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1035 AM MST Fri Feb 21 2025

VFR conditions to prevail throughout the TAF period. Generally
light sly to ely winds are expected to continue with SKC to
FEW250.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 124 AM MST Fri Feb 21 2025

Fire weather concerns are low through Saturday, becoming moderate
next week due to very low min RHs and drying fuels. Today will be
similar to Thursday but with lighter winds and slightly lower RHs.
For the weekend, we become very dry in terms of surface moisture
which will allow fuels to dry into next week (nearing the 90th
percentile). The very low RHs and dry fuels contribute to near-
critical (RFTI values of 3-4) fire danger early next week,
although winds will be generally light from the west-northwest. A
potential backdoor front Wed-Thu can bring breezy east winds and
higher fire danger, but there is high uncertainty at this point
with specific impacts. Temperatures will be near or below normal
today, then rising to above normal this weekend.

Min RHs range from 10-18% west of US-54, 15-30% east through
Sat, then 5-12% everywhere Sunday onward. Vent rates will be fair
to very good west of the Divide today, mostly poor elsewhere; poor
to good on Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  61  34  66  39 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            53  26  62  33 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               59  30  64  33 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               58  27  63  31 /   0   0  10   0
Cloudcroft               41  23  44  27 /   0   0  10   0
Truth or Consequences    60  33  64  34 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              59  32  61  33 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   64  30  66  31 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                67  29  67  29 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       59  37  65  41 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                49  22  61  28 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             61  28  69  33 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               51  28  59  37 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   61  31  67  36 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             58  31  64  35 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           58  33  64  40 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            59  26  65  30 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    64  28  68  30 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 63  33  66  36 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                57  28  62  32 /   0   0  10   0
Mayhill                  52  25  56  30 /   0   0  10   0
Mescalero                52  25  54  28 /   0   0  10   0
Timberon                 48  22  53  26 /   0   0  10   0
Winston                  56  22  59  24 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                61  31  64  33 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                59  26  65  29 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             60  21  61  19 /   0   0  10   0
Hurley                   61  27  63  30 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    67  27  70  24 /   0   0  10   0
Mule Creek               62  24  64  25 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  59  32  62  35 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   70  28  67  31 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  65  27  66  30 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           70  32  67  34 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               64  38  63  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...99