Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
138 FXUS64 KEPZ 210547 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM Issued by National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1147 PM MDT Thu Aug 20 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1147 PM MDT Thu Aug 20 2026 - Above normal temperatures across southern New Mexico and far west Texas through the week ahead. Lowland highs in the upper 90s to lower 100s, near daily records. - Isolated showers and thunderstorms Friday and Saturday, limited mostly to the high terrain and western New Mexico. Dry conditions spread area wide into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1147 PM MDT Thu Aug 20 2026 High pressure aloft centered over the Southern Rockies will be the primary driver of our weather pattern over the next several days. Thunderstorm development through the weekend will be driven by recycled moisture under this upper high, with less and less coverage each day as drier air moves in. The main headline will be above normal temperatures, which looks to stay in place through the rest of August. Lowland highs consistently in the 98-102 degree range will run 8-10 degrees above normal for late August and near daily records. Currently no daily record for El Paso in the forecast, but were only 1-2 degrees off most days going forward. Earlier this evening we saw isolated showers and thunderstorms across the CWA. Sounding PWs were 1.1-1.2, with barely enough instability (300-600 J/kg), and a mix of convective temperature/terrain forcing. Storms were quite weak, with 10-20% coverage over the lowlands and more notable winners being the western rim of the Sacramento Mountain and Black Range. For Friday, expect more of this weak convective activity, only another tick lower in coverage. GFS/NAM resolve PWs falling below an inch. ECMWF still clings onto some slightly higher moisture values, but pattern recognition leans this forecast toward the drier solutions. Lowland chances fall even further to 5-10%, especially for the I-10 corridor. Any storms that do form will favor the high elevations, popping around noon and diminishing prior to sunset. Storms will be capable of brief downpours and gusty winds up to 45 mph. Saturday will be even drier, with very spotty mountain showers and almost no action for lowland zones. Upper high drifts east directly over the Southern High Plains this weekend, leading to a near-total shut off of moisture flow and the end of storm chances area wide. Precipitable water values 0.8-1.0 will fall below the climate normals and strong subsident flow within the 400-600mb layer aloft will hinder updraft development. The primary monsoonal plume will be pushed west across Arizona and the Colorado River valley. This pattern looks to remain in place through next week, leading to an extended period of late-August dryness and heat. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1147 PM MDT Thu Aug 20 2026 Dry conditions overnight with skies SCT-BKN150 and surface winds 030-090 at 5 to 10 knots. Skies clearing to FEW-SCT150 Friday morning. Isolated TS over mtns tomorrow afternoon, likely not affecting local terminals. PROB30 TS included in TAF for KTCS, but no mention for other sites. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1200 PM MDT Thu Aug 20 2026 The subtropical high will remain in place over the Four Corners today, bringing temperatures to near-record high levels for the lowlands for this time of year (100-103). However, there is just enough instability and recycled moisture (mostly aloft) working around the ridge to allow for isolated thunderstorm coverage in the lowlands, though mainly north of El Paso. Heavy downpours and localized flooding will be the main threats, but again, mostly over the higher terrain areas, as the lowlands will see dewpoints mix-out into the 40s. Friday will bring similar conditions, with a little less moisture to work with. Storms again will favor the higher terrain and drift SW towards the lowlands, and less favorable environment. Precipitation will continue to diminish in coverage through the weekend, with the Gila perhaps being the lone holdout for Saturday before drier and warmer (-4C at 500mb) air aloft moves in as the subtropical ridge settles a little closer, over northern New Mexico. It`ll slowly sprawl-out, with a ridge axis extending from northern Arizona eastward to the Texas Panhandle. As a result, precip chances will be heavily suppressed, and temperatures will remain about 6 to 12 degrees above normal through the period. Ventilation rates should be very good. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 75 102 75 101 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 67 98 67 97 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 70 100 69 100 / 10 0 0 0 Alamogordo 71 98 70 98 / 0 20 0 10 Cloudcroft 54 76 53 76 / 0 30 0 10 Truth or Consequences 72 99 71 98 / 0 10 10 0 Silver City 64 93 65 92 / 0 10 10 10 Deming 71 102 71 101 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 70 100 72 100 / 0 10 0 0 West El Paso Metro 77 102 77 101 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 71 101 70 100 / 0 0 10 0 Fort Hancock 74 106 74 104 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 69 95 69 94 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 73 102 74 101 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 73 100 73 99 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 75 101 75 101 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 71 100 71 99 / 10 0 10 0 Hatch 72 103 71 102 / 10 0 10 0 Columbus 75 102 75 101 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 70 99 69 98 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 59 87 58 88 / 0 20 0 10 Mescalero 58 87 57 87 / 10 40 0 10 Timberon 57 86 56 85 / 0 20 0 10 Winston 62 90 62 90 / 10 30 10 10 Hillsboro 70 98 69 97 / 10 10 10 0 Spaceport 70 100 69 99 / 10 0 10 0 Lake Roberts 58 91 59 91 / 10 20 10 30 Hurley 65 96 67 95 / 0 10 0 0 Cliff 66 100 67 100 / 10 10 10 10 Mule Creek 65 96 66 96 / 10 10 10 10 Faywood 68 96 69 95 / 10 10 10 0 Animas 71 101 71 100 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 70 99 70 98 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 71 100 70 99 / 10 0 0 0 Cloverdale 68 95 68 95 / 10 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt