986
FXUS64 KEPZ 230525
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1025 PM MST Sat Feb 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1023 PM MST Sat Feb 22 2025

  - Mostly dry through the period, with a slight chance of showers
    next weekend.

  - The very dry conditions with low humidity will keep fire
    conditions elevated through most of the period.

  - Warmer temperatures next several days with near record high
    temperatures mid-week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 125 PM MST Sat Feb 22 2025

We remain in a dry pattern, though models show some hope for
precip next weekend. In the near term we will see a rapid warm up
from the past several days as an upper ridge builds over the west
coast. Dropping down the front side of this ridge is a small upper
low quickly sweeping across the CWA. Nice satellite eye candy, but
not much moisture with it so feature resulting mostly in mid/high
clouds, though decent CU buildups forming over the Sacs. Do have
token POPs in for those zones next few hours. Otherwise clearing
skies through the evening hours.

Northwest flow ahead of the upper ridge will continue Sunday and
gradually flattening out on Monday into a more zonal flow. Weak
short wave over Utah/Arizona will drop through Sunday morning,
again with very little effect other than a few higher clouds.
Rising heights and warming low levels will warm temperatures back
above normal. High temperatures by Tuesday and Wednesday will be
near record levels as those are the two warmest days and coincide
with two days of lower record temperatures. A short wave trough
dropping south out of the Rockies will push a back door cool front
into the area later Wednesday. This will cool down Thursday some,
but still above normal temperatures will continue into the
weekend. Humidity will also remain quite low though significant
winds are not expected until the weekend. Thus fire conditions
will remain elevated through the weekend.

GFS has been advertising small upper low moving across the
northern Baja and into our area on Saturday with some chances of
precip. Previous ECMWF runs were much slower and trajectory was
not good for precip. The latest run however is hewing closer to
the GFS solution. This would be some much needed late winter
precip, although for book keeping purposes it would be March
precip.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1023 PM MST Sat Feb 22 2025

VFR conditions expected through the period with skies SKC. Winds
light at 3-8 knots through the morning, generally VRB or out of
the N or NW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 125 PM MST Sat Feb 22 2025

Elevated fire conditions will continue through much of the week
ahead. No precipitation is expected through Friday. Low humidity
will continue but with no significant winds, fire conditions
should remain at the elevated level. Breezy winds likely for next
weekend but humidity will also rise, along with a slight chance of
showers.

Min RH: Lowlands 7-10% through Wednesday then 12-16% Thursday and
Friday. Mountains 10-16% through Wednesday then 13-20% Thursday
and Friday. Vent rates fair-good Sunday/Monday good-very good
Tuesday/Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  37  72  40  78 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            33  66  36  74 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               32  70  35  76 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               30  69  33  75 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               25  53  29  57 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    33  71  36  77 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              30  69  32  72 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   30  74  33  78 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                29  71  32  77 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       39  71  42  77 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                25  71  28  77 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             32  73  35  80 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               35  66  38  69 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   32  71  35  79 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             33  70  36  75 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           40  71  43  75 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            26  71  29  76 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    29  74  32  80 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 35  74  38  79 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                31  68  34  73 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  30  67  34  70 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                27  64  31  66 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 25  64  29  67 /  10   0   0   0
Winston                  22  71  24  72 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                32  74  35  77 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                27  71  30  76 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             24  68  23  74 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   28  72  31  74 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    23  72  23  76 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               19  69  19  74 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  34  71  37  74 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   31  72  34  79 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  30  72  33  79 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           34  72  37  79 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               38  71  41  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...38-Rogers