Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
265 FXUS64 KEPZ 171139 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 439 AM MST Mon Nov 17 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 430 AM MST Mon Nov 17 2025 - Cooler temperatures today but still slightly above normal for mid-November. Mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday. - Widespread rain showers and high elevation snow Wednesday into Thursday. Much cooler Thursday and Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1000 PM MST Sun Nov 16 2025 Pacific system currently moving through the area and should be through the CWA by early Monday morning. System did create quite a bit of CU throughout the day, with even some light showers, mainly west of Deming-T or C. Skies should continue clearing overnight and breezy west winds should become light and variable shortly after midnight. Weather quiet for Monday and early Tuesday, with high temps noticeably cooler, but still above normal. Next Pacific system just off the NoCal coast will drop down to SoCal area Tuesday night and into southern Arizona Wednesday night. Models in pretty close agreement with this solution and show system able to scoop up a bit of sub-tropical moisture. Expect some showers to develop Tuesday evening, mainly west of the RG Valley, and then spread east over most of area Wednesday and Thursday morning. Both GFS/NAM12 show PWs increasing to .60-.80 inches and very modest CAPE and LI values. Thus a few thunderstorms could be pop up with some local moderate rainfall. Associated cold front moves through late Thursday afternoon, combined with upper trough passage, should help end the showers and clear the skies. Breezy winds likely Thursday ahead of the front, in the 15-25 gust 35 mph range. Some high elevation snow possible, remaining well above 9000 ft Wednesday, but falling to as low as 7000 ft Thursday as precip is ending. Both GFS/ECMWF show second Pacific trough moving toward the general area toward the weekend, though significant differences continue between the two. GFS closes the trough off into low and drops it down the California coast and eventually over southern Arizona by Sunday night, producing some showers for the area Sunday night and Monday. The ECMWF keeps the Pacific feature as an open trough, reaching the area later Friday into Saturday with just a slight chance for some showers. Either solution should return temperatures to near or slightly below normal. For confidence`s sake, lets hope the models converge closer on a solution. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 430 AM MST Mon Nov 17 2025 VMC through forecast period under southwest flow aloft. Surface winds 240-270 at 10 to 15 knots this afternoon, with peak gusts up to 22 knots. Lighter wind overnight, generally 270-300 at 05 to 10 knots. Skies FEW-SCT060 this morning, becoming BKN-OVC250 tonight. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 430 AM MST Mon Nov 17 2025 Low fire danger today with Min RH 35-50% and WSW winds 10 to 15 mph. Fair ventilation with transport to the east. Southwest winds on Tuesday under mostly cloudy skies. Next chance of precipitation beginning Wednesday, with widespread rain showers in the evening through Thursday morning. Light snow accumulations possible for elevations above 8000 feet. Much cooler Thursday through Saturday as conditions become dry once again. Light winds next weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 50 74 55 71 / 0 0 10 30 Sierra Blanca 44 73 49 70 / 0 0 20 20 Las Cruces 42 68 47 65 / 0 0 10 30 Alamogordo 43 69 47 67 / 0 0 10 20 Cloudcroft 32 50 34 46 / 0 0 20 30 Truth or Consequences 43 66 46 62 / 0 0 10 30 Silver City 40 60 41 56 / 0 0 20 50 Deming 42 70 47 67 / 0 0 10 30 Lordsburg 43 66 46 63 / 0 0 10 30 West El Paso Metro 51 70 56 69 / 0 0 10 30 Dell City 40 76 49 73 / 0 0 10 20 Fort Hancock 47 80 55 76 / 0 0 10 30 Loma Linda 46 67 50 64 / 0 0 20 30 Fabens 46 76 54 73 / 0 0 10 30 Santa Teresa 45 69 52 68 / 0 0 10 30 White Sands HQ 49 70 53 68 / 0 0 10 30 Jornada Range 42 68 47 66 / 0 0 10 30 Hatch 42 70 46 67 / 0 0 10 30 Columbus 46 71 52 68 / 0 0 10 30 Orogrande 42 68 49 66 / 0 0 20 30 Mayhill 36 63 40 58 / 0 0 10 30 Mescalero 35 60 38 58 / 0 0 10 30 Timberon 34 58 37 54 / 0 0 20 30 Winston 33 60 36 55 / 0 0 10 40 Hillsboro 42 65 44 61 / 0 0 10 40 Spaceport 40 67 44 63 / 0 0 10 30 Lake Roberts 35 60 37 55 / 0 10 20 50 Hurley 39 62 41 59 / 0 0 20 40 Cliff 38 65 39 62 / 0 0 20 40 Mule Creek 36 60 38 58 / 0 10 20 50 Faywood 42 62 44 58 / 0 0 20 40 Animas 44 68 47 66 / 0 0 10 30 Hachita 42 68 47 65 / 0 0 10 30 Antelope Wells 42 70 47 66 / 0 0 10 20 Cloverdale 44 62 46 58 / 0 0 10 30 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt