345
FXUS64 KEPZ 070446
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1046 PM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 -  Temperatures steadily climbing through the weekend, with highs
    in the lower deserts climbing to 100-105 degrees, the
    hottest days will be Saturday and Sunday.

 -  Slight cool down on Tuesday and Wednesday, back into the
    middle to upper 90s.

 -  Rain chances increase significantly for the Sacramento
    Mountains and areas east of the Rio Grande for Tuesday with a
    few lingering storms for Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1045 PM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Forecast period starts out with hot and dry conditions through
Monday. El Paso hit 102 on Friday and based on H85 temps, should
see about 103 for Saturday. Most areas in the lowlands will stay
just below 100 degrees. Going into Sunday, not quite so confident
in temps. H70 and H50 heights lower slightly as weak trough
approaches from the west but H85 temps are warming. Still have a
westerly wind over the area and NBM 50th percentile is 104 and it
was close Fri. Since there is a Heat Advisory out, will keep it
going and raise KELP high to 105, the lower RGV I have a much
higher confidence in getting to criteria.

Going into Monday, the trough to the west starts to get closer and
there will be a little cooling noted. GFS/EC and ensemble means
are fairly close, but the NAM is pushing moisture into the area
much quicker and in turn, brings much cooler temps. MET guidance
only going 94 for KELP while the MEX/ECX both have 102. Will keep
NBM temp of 101 going for now but this will need to be watched
since the NAM in the cooler months does do a better job with these
moisture/cooler air pushes. By Tuesday, the moisture will make it
to at least the RGV and with the upper trough over the area will
bring numerous showers and thunderstorms to the Sacs with
scattered coverage to about KELP-KTCS. NBM PoPs are on the
increase from previous runs and looked reasonable, although did
drop the 80 PoPs in the mountains down slightly.There`s some decent
instability and some shear out east, may see a couple strong/severe
storms. High temperatures will drop about 5 degrees west to 10
degrees east for Tue/Wed. Trough moves into northern TX by Wed,
but some lingering moisture and low level convergence will keep
some storms around in the afternoon over the north and east.

Moisture pushes out by Thursday with a stronger ridge than this
weekend building into the area. Looks like 100+ degree temps by
Friday for El Paso and the lower RGV with upper 90s elsewhere with
continued warming going into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 517 PM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

P6SM SKC-FEW250 through period. Winds generally west to southwest
AOB 12KTS with some gusts to 20KTS 20Z-02Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1045 PM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Hot and dry conditions for the area through Monday with min RH`s
in the single digits. Winds will be in the 5-15 mph range through
Sunday, but Monday could have some elevated fire conditions as
winds pick up more into the 10-20 mph range. Moisture moves in for
Tuesday, at least for the north and east with scattered lowlands
storms and numerous mountains storms in these areas. Temperatures
will also drop about 5-10 degrees.  A few storms linger for
Wednesday but the heat and dry air return going into late in the
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 102  72 105  72 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            96  64  97  65 /  20  10   0   0
Las Cruces               96  62  98  64 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               96  63  97  64 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               75  51  75  53 /  10   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    96  65  99  66 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              88  57  90  62 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   98  61 100  62 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                95  60  96  61 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       98  70  99  72 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                99  63 101  64 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            103  68 104  69 /  10   0   0   0
Loma Linda               93  67  93  69 /  10   0   0   0
Fabens                  101  67 102  67 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             97  65 100  66 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           98  73  99  70 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            96  61  98  56 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    98  60 100  61 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 99  67 100  68 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                96  64  96  66 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  88  55  88  56 /  10   0   0   0
Mescalero                85  55  86  56 /  10   0   0   0
Timberon                 83  54  84  55 /  10   0   0   0
Winston                  88  51  90  53 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                95  60  98  63 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                96  59  97  61 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             89  52  91  46 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   91  57  93  58 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    94  57  95  50 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               89  56  92  51 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  91  60  93  63 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   96  61  98  63 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  96  61  97  62 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           96  61  97  64 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               89  62  91  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday for Eastern/Central
     El Paso County-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western
     Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth
     County-Western El Paso County.

NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...26-Grzywacz