290
FXUS64 KEPZ 121158
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
458 AM MST Wed Feb 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 448 AM MST Wed Feb 12 2025

 - Temperatures cooling to near normal for today and Thursday.

 - Winds will pick up again for Friday and Saturday with a chance
   for light snow in area mountains and light rain in the
   lowlands.

 -  Dry and warmer conditions return for early next
    week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 412 AM MST Wed Feb 12 2025

Our active weather pattern will continue this week. We will
continue to feel the lingering effects of yesterday`s short wave
trough as we will have breezy winds and cooler temperatures today.
Then on Thursday, we will have less winds but high temperatures
will still be a little on the cool side.

For Friday the next upper level trough will approach the region.
This trough will swing our upper level flow pattern around to the
southwest which will warm our high temperatures back above
normal. The trough will also give us another windy and dusty
afternoon on Friday. The trough will be slow to move to off, so we
will see breezy winds on Saturday with a chance (20 to 40%) for
light mountain snow showers and light lowland rain showers. High
temperatures both Saturday and Sunday will drop back closer to
seasonal averages. For the start of next week, we will have a
zonal flow (west to east) which will push out the moisture and
push up our temperatures, 5 to 7 degrees above average. The
extended models have some cold air just to our east, but with the
strong zonal flow, that cold air will struggle to move to the
west.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 448 AM MST Wed Feb 12 2025

We will again see breezy to windy conditions this afternoon, but
not as strong of winds as we saw on Tuesday. We could see some
patchy blowing dust today, but again, not as much blowing dust as
we saw on Tuesday. The best chances for blowing dust will be from
KELP and to the south and east. The winds will drop off a little
after sunset, but our mid and high ceilings look to continue well
into the the overnight hours. We will have less winds on Thursday,
but the winds and dust return on Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 412 AM MST Wed Feb 12 2025

We will see more winds today (but not as strong as yesterday), we
will see elevated fire weather conditions, but min RH`s will fall
a little short of critical levels. We`ll take a break from the
winds on Thursday, but then strong winds return on Friday, with
min RH`s in the teens in the Texas zones, but higher readings in
New Mexico. We will see a chance for precipitation on Saturday.
For the start of next week, we will see min RH`s drop to near 10%
in the lowlands and in the teens in area mountains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  64  42  65  44 /   0   0  10   0
Sierra Blanca            60  39  62  37 /   0   0  20   0
Las Cruces               58  33  61  39 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               57  28  62  39 /  10   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               33  19  42  31 /  10   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    57  30  61  40 /  10   0   0   0
Silver City              46  27  56  38 /  20  10  10  10
Deming                   59  31  63  38 /  10   0   0   0
Lordsburg                56  26  63  36 /  10  10   0   0
West El Paso Metro       62  43  64  45 /   0   0  10   0
Dell City                60  35  62  31 /   0   0  10   0
Fort Hancock             67  39  69  38 /   0   0  10   0
Loma Linda               54  37  58  40 /   0   0  10   0
Fabens                   64  40  67  41 /   0   0  10   0
Santa Teresa             60  38  62  41 /   0   0  10   0
White Sands HQ           58  39  62  45 /  10   0   0   0
Jornada Range            57  29  62  36 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    59  28  64  36 /  10   0   0   0
Columbus                 62  37  65  42 /   0   0  10   0
Orogrande                57  34  60  39 /  10   0   0   0
Mayhill                  45  24  54  33 /  10   0   0   0
Mescalero                44  20  51  32 /  10  10   0   0
Timberon                 42  20  50  27 /  10   0   0   0
Winston                  47  16  55  28 /  10   0   0   0
Hillsboro                53  28  60  36 /  10   0   0   0
Spaceport                57  25  61  34 /  10   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             44  23  56  36 /  40  10  10  10
Hurley                   50  25  58  35 /  10   0   0   0
Cliff                    54  16  63  28 /  40  10  10  10
Mule Creek               47  25  57  37 /  40  10  10  20
Faywood                  50  29  56  38 /  10   0   0   0
Animas                   60  30  67  38 /  10  10  10   0
Hachita                  59  31  64  37 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           61  34  67  39 /   0   0  10   0
Cloverdale               55  35  61  42 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...15-Brice